Erdogan shits his pants. Russia is a chessmaster

[sahal80]

I want explain to you who think that "SAA has sunna majority" who saved assad at the end when the sunna defected from the SAA

Before 2013, the FSA was controlling the majority of the syrian provinces except the center...all the minorities except the alawites were forming their FSA units...so, assad has released all the jihadist leaders from their prison in order to turn the war into a sectarian war and scare the minorities....by 2013, FSA has lost its territories to the jihadist factions....Kurds, druz, christians, ismailes all the minorities have begun to switch sides!....FSA was superior to the jihadist factions when it comes to the military tactics since it was a professional army and from the same school as the SAA

The alawite divisions of the SAA have begun a large scale tactical assult on the jihadist-held area of damascus, hama, homs and aleppo

So as you can see from the map, regime was limited to the western side of Damascus wich is heavily alawite populated area as the seat of the govt....centre was diputed area. Regime has succeeded in cutting off the jihadist in Damascus as you can see the green area r not connected anymore by 2013, recaptured many districts including jobar...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rif_Dim ... ober_2012)

By 2014 regime has succeeded to split rebels into two (eastren ghouta and westren ghouta)
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc ... ScWA-s6k1g

Their current situation, all these r alawite divisions....sunna r not allowed in the capital

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc ... kvozkvfhqg

After he succeeded to make the war sectarian, he established the minority army (NDF), hezbullah and lot pro-iranian militias have joined the fight....last year they lost most of the north due to troop shortage after half of them were killed...that's why the Russian intervention

Where's the sunna from this? They have sunni minority who can't scape as they don't want join the jihadists...they will be killed by the two sides as there is no more FSA

https://youtu.be/I9zxKLMPSew

https://youtu.be/THRGgm8p9jI

[jalaaludin5]

Sahal says so much yet end up not saying much.

Wale waa skills inaba aan caadi ahayn
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[sahal80]

Sahal says so much yet end up not saying much.

Wale waa skills inaba aan caadi ahayn
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you mean you don't get it

I'm not good at communications except in arabic...I contribute some arabic articles about somalia in this hiiraan site but i cant reveal my identity in here...it's the most arabic based neutral site. Somali I had two articles but they keep correcting my af somali...im learning qaldaan style no more koonfur. my new year resolution was to master english so I can write in HOL by 2017

http://sowtalsomal.com/

[jalaaludin5]

Sahal says so much yet end up not saying much.

Wale waa skills inaba aan caadi ahayn
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you mean you don't get it

I'm not good at communications except in arabic...I contribute some arabic articles about somalia in this hiiraan site but i cant reveal my identity in here...it's the most arabic based neutral site. Somali I had two articles but they keep correcting my af somali...im learning qaldaan style no more koonfur. my new year resolution was to master english so I can write in HOL by 2017

http://sowtalsomal.com/

not only that but am also in line with Gurey25 and his take on this Syrian issue makes more sense than the ISIS supporters.

I do not understand how someone can support those creatures.
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[TheGrumpyGeeljire]

What the dirty Russians and Shiites are doing in Syria can be summed up with 2 words: ethnic cleansing. This is a war not against ISIS but against the Sunnis of Syria. The Americans, Saudis are also complicit in this by supporting groups such as ISIS who are the puppets of Iran.

[TheGrumpyGeeljire]

The country side surrounding Latakia was 70% Sunni and the city itself is at least 40% Sunni. Now they have all been displaced by Bashar's alawite army. This war is clearly a sectarian one and I don't know why some people think Assad has significant Sunni support, if he did this war would not have even transpired. A bunch of mercenaries cannot invade a country and create total chaos if they do not have the explicit support of the population.

[sahal80]

Sahal says so much yet end up not saying much.

Wale waa skills inaba aan caadi ahayn
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you mean you don't get it

I'm not good at communications except in arabic...I contribute some arabic articles about somalia in this hiiraan site but i cant reveal my identity in here...it's the most arabic based neutral site. Somali I had two articles but they keep correcting my af somali...im learning qaldaan style no more koonfur. my new year resolution was to master english so I can write in HOL by 2017

http://sowtalsomal.com/

not only that but am also in line with Gurey25 and his take on this Syrian issue makes more sense than the ISIS supporters.

I do not understand how someone can support those creatures.
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lol ilaahow ha cadaabin nin aan wax ogayn!

My friend daesh and the rest of jihadists were made by the regime to turn the tables on the nationalist FSA

Do you know that regime policy has changed since the intervention of the Russians? There's khilaf between Iran, regime on one hand and Russia on the other hand....Russia sees to target the salafists and daesh as well not just the moderates or what remained from the FSA to give credibility to their operation but concentrate more on the new moderates.....it sees to incorporate the FSA or make them allies wich makes the regime and Iran worry....regime doesn't want the sunna to be represented by the calmaanis

So the Russians have killed aloush the leader of hizbul Islam, provacated isis wich led the latter impossing blockade on Aleppo and homs, attacking deir al sour airport

Russia has also other alawites as a planB.... one of them got arrested by assad recently after he came back from Russia

What Russia wants is a pro-Russian govt that includes the FSA....not necessary to be led by assad

See how FSA was controlling 65% of Syria in 2012

http://arab-worlds.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/65.html?m=1

Damascus 2012

Regime was only controlling alawite dominated west of damascus where the govt is based like mezza and kafr sousa, Assad villages.....jobar was under FSA....center was under attack....the two ghouta were connected(the highway)
http://arab-worlds.blogspot.co.uk/2012/ ... 0.html?m=1

[sahal80]

Jalaal

FSA was formed in mid 2011...by 2012 the number of the detected army has reached 100,000...95% sunni..

So, bc of the massive defections in the army, by the end of 2011, assad has released all the jihadists from their prisons.....they established camps inside the liberated area and attracted more youth with their allahu akbar....soon all the minorities in suwayda, quneitira, salamiya in hama, Christians of homs and westren qalamoun have switched sides

The second strategy was to send message to the west that there is no secular Sunni alternative

All this is true except al jawlani, he was in Iraq till 2012.....he took over the already liberated north east and then the free idlib country side.....jihadists and salafists tooke over eastren ghouta and southern damascus from the FSA...there was alot of rebel infghting

Al nusra defeated the american funded harakat xazm(FSA) in aleppo and took all its weapons

That's how assad won the war and your talking about assad-made terrorists!

Wassalam

http://m.thenational.ae/world/syria/ass ... l-uprising

[jalaaludin5]

Explain to me how does the west fit into all this?
You seem to be of the opinion that Asaad created ISIS, which I do not agree, and even with all that we know about uncle Sam's track record you seem to be focused on Russia and want to paint them as the devil over a canvas that had the west bloody history of genocide and unparalleled brutal savagery.

All you guys seem to be so dead against Asaad and Russia all thanks to uncle Sam's playing into that sunni-suffering and Alawites/Shia bogeyman palaver. Well, people (Muslim) will get over it just like the Palestinian issue is dead and no longer relevant to the phantom Ummah.

I ain't convinced yet but am always open to be proven wrong.
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[Siciid85]

Sahal says so much yet end up not saying much.

Wale waa skills inaba aan caadi ahayn
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you mean you don't get it

I'm not good at communications except in arabic...I contribute some arabic articles about somalia in this hiiraan site but i cant reveal my identity in here...it's the most arabic based neutral site. Somali I had two articles but they keep correcting my af somali...im learning qaldaan style no more koonfur. my new year resolution was to master english so I can write in HOL by 2017

http://sowtalsomal.com/

I understand you just fine sxb except markaan isla doodayno.

Your English is actually pretty good

[jalaaludin5]

Sahal

In that previous post I wasn't saying I don't understand your english.

nothing wrong with your english and can understand you perfectly but it's just your take on the issue that I dont get.
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[gurey25]

Sahal your english is very good, dont worry about it..

The picture you paint is somewhat accurate,
but you are missing the point.

The 1st,2nd,and 3rd corps of the regular army experienced defections and massive manpower losses through death and injuries
and they made up the bulk of the army.
These were overwhelmingly Sunni, even the officers were sunni.

After the 2012-2013 what remained was 1/3 of the prewar strength and these units that were 100% sunni were complimented by
battallions and regiments from the preatorean gaurd units, i.e the 4th divisions, the republican gaurd and the Special forces .
The regular army now consists of the 4rth divison, the republican gaurd , and the remaining divisions of the former regular corps.
Thats about 70,000 men active full time out of 180,000-200,000 before 2011.
Only half are Alawi and minority, the other half is sunni.

The NDF millitias are organized around districts, with every district responsible for static defense of their area,
the regular army is used for manouver.
The NDF has a Sunni Majority, because the population is still mainly sunni.
in a sunni xaafad the NDF will be mainly sunni, in a mixed xaafad it will be mixed.

you might be confusing the NDF with the Shabiha, which are an Alawi millitia that is not 100% under government control,
and was formed by the Alawi mafia(organized crime) before the war, and grew into a large millitia force.

[gurey25]

but sahal you did not answer my question.
How will you bring peace to Syria?
How will syria go back to normal?

What you said about assad creating daesh has a hint of truth.
Assad simply freed his islamist prisoners from the jails because he knows islamists cannot cooperate and will fight other islamists and secular nationalists harder than him.

Its what isreal did with the PLO.
Shin bet started a project to weaken the PLO, they found a small chapter of the Egyptian Muslim bortherhood in gaza and started providing
money, explosives training, and weapons.
Hamas was born.

The Khaleejis had a project in Iraq to do the same but to fight the shia, but they used the leftovers of the failed isreali experiment of Zarqawi.
The money helped unite the bacthists with the zarqawis and local islamists and sunni tribes and you have daesh.
When they lost control of daesh the US moved in and started to control them with airpower.
They wanted daesh to fight assad but they were more interested in attacking the kurds and conquering and absorbing other rebel groups.
so when they move to an area they are not allowed to the US will bomb them.
If they move towards Syrian arab army positions, the US drops them fuel, food and Ammunition and weapons.

The US was treating daesh like you would a herd of cattle,
which they are,
wa xoolo wallahi.

[gurey25]

Your description of a mad max scenario where nations will come in and gobble up lands from other countries is ludicrous. Nations are held accountable by international law and there are checks and balances which will make it impossible for them to legitimize their acquisitions in the face of the world. If Turkey and Israel were to take land they'd have to deal with not just the eternal hostility of Syria but also risk massive external political and economic disruption/sabotage. Israel is already nearly a pariah globally now, but i don't think they want to make more enemies.

International Law!!!
Iraq was against international law.
You seem to think we live in world where there are rules.

well there are rules for one side and rule for the other.
If you are allied with NATO and are a vassal of the USA, then you can do allot of things that are against international law.
Look at Saudia and the invasion of yemen, clearly against international law,
attrocities , bombing civilians but not only do you get a green light from the west you also get the news muzzed and censored
so you do not show up on TV.

Now my scenario is not too far fetched, i based it on Somalia and Iraq and Afghanistan.
neither countries are real anymore or sovereign.

All they have to do with minimum issues is to turn syria into an IRAQ,
thats the plan, but they will also be happy with a Somalia, so that Turkey and ISreal can share the pie.
but since Turkey is in NATO, and ISreal is .. well isreal and they write the rule book,

they can do what the fuck they want, including and upto formal annexation.

international law?
thats only for weak countries.

[sahal80]

Explain to me how does the west fit into all this?
You seem to be of the opinion that Asaad created ISIS, which I do not agree, and even with all that we know about uncle Sam's track record you seem to be focused on Russia and want to paint them as the devil over a canvas that had the west bloody history of genocide and unparalleled brutal savagery.

All you guys seem to be so dead against Asaad and Russia all thanks to uncle Sam's playing into that sunni-suffering and Alawites/Shia bogeyman palaver. Well, people (Muslim) will get over it just like the Palestinian issue is dead and no longer relevant to the phantom Ummah.

I ain't convinced yet but am always open to be proven wrong.
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your not familiar with these politics, you haven't followed or contacted with alot politicians so you can see the hidden world of politics and how it works.....I have no doubt that the somali president is happy about the security setbacks and that this has connections with the ethiopian interim commander of amisom bc there's amisom/Ugandan policy that appears during the elections wich is against electing a non hwy president for fear of repeating yeey-ethiopia scenario....this will kill hafl of his rival candidates....al shabaab in marka means if a non native was elected, xamar will fall!
http://mobile.monitor.co.ug/News/-/6912 ... index.html

He came through Qatar channeles with the blessings of the west as an alternative to sh sharif!

In such scenario, was this a set up or al shabaab policy?

Syrian regime had given all jihadists a safe passage to Iraq bc it will be the next target after Iraq

Syrian tv was portraying al zarqawi as resistance movement

Al jawlani was medical student in his second year before joining al zarqawi!

This is called infiltration...it doesn't mean you work for them...they make the means by letting you free and controlling your movements

Read the US-Syria part: control your borders with Mexico first!

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast ... ranscript/


Thanks saciid sxb.