Hirshabelle proves that all FMS need Gentleman's Agreement for clans and provinces!

[Murax]

First time I ever seen Sahal FKD a Non MX

[sahal80]

First time I ever seen Sahal FKD a Non MX

imbow waxaa la dhahay tiisa daryeelaa tu kale daryeela i had my own Baladweyne preoccupations
as we are a day late for the scheduled time.

Dahir Jeesow is an mp again he had malxiis, Cabdi yusuf guy waa loo xiray. one Kursi is open people like me are waiting patiently for the most popular Malik Abdalla who built airport terminal vs Hirshabelle Agaasime Karoore backed by his Nabadoon.

Dabageed has come up with a new tactic benefiting from all sides and telling everone he is the one unless the ergo vote the other

atleast the system is ok to have equal ergo they r for Candidates with equal ergo.

anyways dont worry i will give you a break untill the results bc i dont be inconsiderate in this hard time. Dahor jeesow got over 100 cod in the first round

[SultanOrder]

As long as Federalism exists, Abgaal will never give up control of Hirshabelle again. This election showed Hassan Sheikh himself the mistake of the gentleman agreement. You have to control a Federal State to have influence in elections. This goes for both the big clans and the federal government.

There are 5 big powerbrokers in Somalia minus Somaliland.

2 Darod (Marehan and Majeerteen)
2 Hawiye (Abgaal and Habar Gidir)
1 Rahanweyn block

If you remove all of foreign troops as the civil war showed there are 5 Spheres of influence and controlling those spheres of influence were those 5 clans.

Abgaal will never give up the leadership of Hirshabelle again and Marehan will take control over the leadership of Jubbaland inevitably the second KDF troops withdraw whether that is next month or next decade.

[sahal80]

As long as Federalism exists, Abgaal will never give up control of Hirshabelle again. This election showed Hassan Sheikh himself the mistake of the gentleman agreement. You have to control a Federal State to have influence in elections. This goes for both the big clans and the federal government.

There are 5 big powerbrokers in Somalia minus Somaliland.

2 Darod (Marehan and Majeerteen)
2 Hawiye (Abgaal and Habar Gidir)
1 Rahanweyn block

If you remove all of foreign troops as the civil war showed there are 5 Spheres of influence and controlling those spheres of influence were those 5 clans.

Abgaal will never give up the leadership of Hirshabelle again and Marehan will take control over the leadership of Jubbaland inevitably the second KDF troops withdraw whether that is next month or next decade.

only in the fantasy world. if there is no kdf... if there is no Al shabaab.

Federelaim was created by the neighbouring countries



it has no place for mx who are under the hegemony of Kablalax aka PunJub that why you are the only clan the is stuck in the past and the militarization of the society like mohamed Kooshin confirmed it and everybody knows dhaqan askareedka Gedo ka jira oo xamar la imaateen. the 2000 is gone forever between HG and MX there is D&M FMS its likely that KG to annex luuq someday and you got sandwiched by kablalax and D&M and dont firget Kenya as long there is Al Shabaab JL will stay Kenyan buffer zone.

but based on 4.5, MJ and MX are the two dominating Daarood powersharing in the SFG not but in the FMS level Its only MJ and OG. OG are part of the IGAD project for federalism. former secretary state of IGAD mahbub malin was OG, Halane is the Head of SAHAN, Afeey UNHCR special envoy for the Horn of Africa besides the kenyan govt and parliament and DDS Madoobe met them over Dolow Gedo security recently


you guys are destroying the whole federalism and failed and hawiye are done with you dont ever talk about federalism and mx. JL is IGAD kablalax project president reer cabdille you dont control Kismaayo wich has mj mayor next capital cowlyahan.

Hiiraan is twice the size of Middle shabelle and a historical leading region that will never led by a new region like Jowhar the only way can this happen is if the Abgaal president stays in Baladweyne wich will be hard for him and in rotation where hawadle will be the next president. they say "Magan Xawaadle iyo mooye habeen(xili la hurdo) and some time mooye abaareed(calashaan gaajo aa dariska heesa) xili xun bay dhawaaqaan. this is known fact im not sayin Hawadle are bad but if you mess with them they will do such crazy thing.


Abgaal are known for darisnimo Abgaal baa leh so having the capital suits them more.

also Hiiraan fits for the IGADs Federalism project as it has border with Ethiopia who dont want strong SFG. forget about Abiy he is just phenomenon that come and disappear even though he has changed and he even wants to split friendly somali region. Jowhar will alweys be part of Mogadishu. lastly its not up to Abgaal let them free Guudlaawe now this is totally difference province they have zero influence and its the Kismaayo of hirshabelle despite Jowar being the capital 75% powewersharing comes from hiiraan the equivalent of jubooyinka like the the 25 mps. if we had today Waare he woud have being independent and doing the same shit as Deni and Madoobe in Baladweyne but we have a weak governor like Guudlaawe who does not belong to the region therefore like i said before all the hiiraan clans were free from him ma aha wax uu asaga furay.

therefore The Abgaal MM are now certain that they only way to compete with the other candidates it to back Hawadle candidate for Hirshabelle so they can get Baladweyne 25 seats but what can Guudlaawe do for them and jowhar only got 13 seats? at his best he may give each HAG candidate 1 he cant back one candidate something only Hawadle president could do

lastly Baladweyne like all the regional capitals have UNSOM and other UN humanitarian agencies they dont know Jowhar so they come to Baladweyne to see them and for staff and media training bc their officers for Hirshabelle r in Baladweyne. in federalism waxaa wax lagu noqdaa deegaanka not 4.5
https://unsom.unmissions.org/unsom-offices

lastly OG will take over mx in the SFG most hawiye are saying this even Rooble acts as Ceydiid vs Siyaad barre(Farmawjo)


maybe we will hear about you after another 30 years marka hawiye idin hilmaamaan




Do you know Guudlaawe tried to flee from baladweyne and was put under house arrest in the last minute? this is not dacaayad wallahi. him and MM and sanbaloolshe even Rooble wanted to stop the baladweyne elections and only select mucaarad and then issue wiifto from Jowhar. Dadbageed controlled SEIT released 3 seats then within two hours FEIT suspended then. our brother Mowliid who is Baladweyne threatened something like becomes against Rooble and them Safiina released them. this how Hiiraan manages itself even under Abgaal governor!


Safiina forced to release




our SEIT and FEIT boys working together. MX who are supposed to be "in power" are dreaming about SEIT and FEAT dealing with Gedo directly when hiiraan naturally does this without Rooble Controlled SFG

https://fb.watch/bFMIHmbG_R/

[OwQariib]

Ustaad as you said there is the 4.5 SFG role and the FMS, reer Hiiraan should support a Benadir state to get even more leverage on Hirshabelle, the Hawiye power sharing of the 90s of the 4 USC powers needs to evolve with the federal structure where XL can secure the FMS and Murusade takes the SFG role based on 4.5

[Amin5457]

Jowhar is the border between us so how can one side be bigger than the other? Because it is the capital of Middle Shabelle this gives more political and military importance to Abgaal who depends on Mogadishu just 90km away but to Hawadle it is a second province under another administration.

Hawadle are the biggest clan in Hirshabelle being majority in Baladweyne, Buulaburde and Jalalaqsi and their own separate towns and villages are bigger than any only Abgaal town in middle shaballe wich is hardly to find even warshiikh and cadale have Jaaji fishers and the Majority clan in Jowhar and mahadaay are Shiidle who also settle in Balcad but wacbuudhan Abgaal are its majority but it also has many hawiye families including hawadle. Abgaal are bigger than Hawadle as a clan but not in Hirshabelle where Hawadle have more mps(8) when they got 6 and even the 3 mudulood(two udeejeen and ine moobileen) is just nominal clans by abtirsi they have no their own lands maybe moobileen in qalimow wich has Miinlaawe hawadle too and the udeejeen live within agoon cabdalle Hawadle in jawiil.

with many respect i'ts funny to Compare Hawadle with Abgaal in Hirshabelle bc the Abgaal are farmers and fishers who move between Xamar and middle shabelle while Hiiraan is a real country for Hawadle also the east of middle shabelle is a desert and ghost villages that have no roads
https://ibb.co/pfqHLc4


also Hawadle is the biggest by territory. first my map Green hawadle(i havent done east and north baladweyne area wich is obvious hawadle im just concentrating shared borders) yellow Abgaal, red Gaaljecel, Black gugundhabe(baadicade and jijeele) im not including jareer om the river banks.
https://ibb.co/Qbdq89v

second Hiiraan adminstaration clan map for Hirshabelle
biggest Hawadle red second largest Abgaal blue third Gaaljecel yellow 4th gugundhabe green, Jareer coffee, HG bkack
https://ibb.co/pr8HYNf


this is nit faan iyo ku qabso ku qasi meysid i can post videos of our villages and nomads

Hawadle in middle shabelle is bigger than non Abgaal mudulood in Hirshabelle this is just one village. ha isku qaldina Abgaalka Xamar iyo Hirshabelle.

Harti abgaal alone are bigger than XL let alone wacbudhan who are the biggest sub of abgaal. Nowadays most abgaal in Somalia live in xamar. There are at least 1.2 million abgaal in xamar. That’s more XL than in this earth let alone abgaal in middle shabelle and galgaduud. Only reason XL in hirshabelle can be compared to abgaal is because abgaal of HS focus on xamar more but if they moved back to their ancestral village, they’d be much more

[Amin5457]

As long as Federalism exists, Abgaal will never give up control of Hirshabelle again. This election showed Hassan Sheikh himself the mistake of the gentleman agreement. You have to control a Federal State to have influence in elections. This goes for both the big clans and the federal government.

There are 5 big powerbrokers in Somalia minus Somaliland.

2 Darod (Marehan and Majeerteen)
2 Hawiye (Abgaal and Habar Gidir)
1 Rahanweyn block

If you remove all of foreign troops as the civil war showed there are 5 Spheres of influence and controlling those spheres of influence were those 5 clans.

Abgaal will never give up the leadership of Hirshabelle again and Marehan will take control over the leadership of Jubbaland inevitably the second KDF troops withdraw whether that is next month or next decade.

only in the fantasy world. if there is no kdf... if there is no Al shabaab.

Federelaim was created by the neighbouring countries



it has no place for mx who are under the hegemony of Kablalax aka PunJub that why you are the only clan the is stuck in the past and the militarization of the society like mohamed Kooshin confirmed it and everybody knows dhaqan askareedka Gedo ka jira oo xamar la imaateen. the 2000 is gone forever between HG and MX there is D&M FMS its likely that KG to annex luuq someday and you got sandwiched by kablalax and D&M and dont firget Kenya as long there is Al Shabaab JL will stay Kenyan buffer zone.

but based on 4.5, MJ and MX are the two dominating Daarood powersharing in the SFG not but in the FMS level Its only MJ and OG. OG are part of the IGAD project for federalism. former secretary state of IGAD mahbub malin was OG, Halane is the Head of SAHAN, Afeey UNHCR special envoy for the Horn of Africa besides the kenyan govt and parliament and DDS Madoobe met them over Dolow Gedo security recently


you guys are destroying the whole federalism and failed and hawiye are done with you dont ever talk about federalism and mx. JL is IGAD kablalax project president reer cabdille you dont control Kismaayo wich has mj mayor next capital cowlyahan.

Hiiraan is twice the size of Middle shabelle and a historical leading region that will never led by a new region like Jowhar the only way can this happen is if the Abgaal president stays in Baladweyne wich will be hard for him and in rotation where hawadle will be the next president. they say "Magan Xawaadle iyo mooye habeen(xili la hurdo) and some time mooye abaareed(calashaan gaajo aa dariska heesa) xili xun bay dhawaaqaan. this is known fact im not sayin Hawadle are bad but if you mess with them they will do such crazy thing.


Abgaal are known for darisnimo Abgaal baa leh so having the capital suits them more.

also Hiiraan fits for the IGADs Federalism project as it has border with Ethiopia who dont want strong SFG. forget about Abiy he is just phenomenon that come and disappear even though he has changed and he even wants to split friendly somali region. Jowhar will alweys be part of Mogadishu. lastly its not up to Abgaal let them free Guudlaawe now this is totally difference province they have zero influence and its the Kismaayo of hirshabelle despite Jowar being the capital 75% powewersharing comes from hiiraan the equivalent of jubooyinka like the the 25 mps. if we had today Waare he woud have being independent and doing the same shit as Deni and Madoobe in Baladweyne but we have a weak governor like Guudlaawe who does not belong to the region therefore like i said before all the hiiraan clans were free from him ma aha wax uu asaga furay.

therefore The Abgaal MM are now certain that they only way to compete with the other candidates it to back Hawadle candidate for Hirshabelle so they can get Baladweyne 25 seats but what can Guudlaawe do for them and jowhar only got 13 seats? at his best he may give each HAG candidate 1 he cant back one candidate something only Hawadle president could do

lastly Baladweyne like all the regional capitals have UNSOM and other UN humanitarian agencies they dont know Jowhar so they come to Baladweyne to see them and for staff and media training bc their officers for Hirshabelle r in Baladweyne. in federalism waxaa wax lagu noqdaa deegaanka not 4.5
https://unsom.unmissions.org/unsom-offices

lastly OG will take over mx in the SFG most hawiye are saying this even Rooble acts as Ceydiid vs Siyaad barre(Farmawjo)


maybe we will hear about you after another 30 years marka hawiye idin hilmaamaan




Do you know Guudlaawe tried to flee from baladweyne and was put under house arrest in the last minute? this is not dacaayad wallahi. him and MM and sanbaloolshe even Rooble wanted to stop the baladweyne elections and only select mucaarad and then issue wiifto from Jowhar. Dadbageed controlled SEIT released 3 seats then within two hours FEIT suspended then. our brother Mowliid who is Baladweyne threatened something like becomes against Rooble and them Safiina released them. this how Hiiraan manages itself even under Abgaal governor!


Safiina forced to release




our SEIT and FEIT boys working together. MX who are supposed to be "in power" are dreaming about SEIT and FEAT dealing with Gedo directly when hiiraan naturally does this without Rooble Controlled SFG

https://fb.watch/bFMIHmbG_R/

Middle shabelle is more abgaal than XL is hiraan. You are 50% in hiran. Only thing is you guys are armed. Other 50% is galjecel, baadicade, makane etc. mudulood is 80-85% of middle shabelle and that’s only because most abgaal live in xamar nowadays

[Amin5457]

Jowhar is the border between us so how can one side be bigger than the other? Because it is the capital of Middle Shabelle this gives more political and military importance to Abgaal who depends on Mogadishu just 90km away but to Hawadle it is a second province under another administration.

Hawadle are the biggest clan in Hirshabelle being majority in Baladweyne, Buulaburde and Jalalaqsi and their own separate towns and villages are bigger than any only Abgaal town in middle shaballe wich is hardly to find even warshiikh and cadale have Jaaji fishers and the Majority clan in Jowhar and mahadaay are Shiidle who also settle in Balcad but wacbuudhan Abgaal are its majority but it also has many hawiye families including hawadle. Abgaal are bigger than Hawadle as a clan but not in Hirshabelle where Hawadle have more mps(8) when they got 6 and even the 3 mudulood(two udeejeen and ine moobileen) is just nominal clans by abtirsi they have no their own lands maybe moobileen in qalimow wich has Miinlaawe hawadle too and the udeejeen live within agoon cabdalle Hawadle in jawiil.

with many respect i'ts funny to Compare Hawadle with Abgaal in Hirshabelle bc the Abgaal are farmers and fishers who move between Xamar and middle shabelle while Hiiraan is a real country for Hawadle also the east of middle shabelle is a desert and ghost villages that have no roads
https://ibb.co/pfqHLc4


also Hawadle is the biggest by territory. first my map Green hawadle(i havent done east and north baladweyne area wich is obvious hawadle im just concentrating shared borders) yellow Abgaal, red Gaaljecel, Black gugundhabe(baadicade and jijeele) im not including jareer om the river banks.
https://ibb.co/Qbdq89v

second Hiiraan adminstaration clan map for Hirshabelle
biggest Hawadle red second largest Abgaal blue third Gaaljecel yellow 4th gugundhabe green, Jareer coffee, HG bkack
https://ibb.co/pr8HYNf


this is nit faan iyo ku qabso ku qasi meysid i can post videos of our villages and nomads

Hawadle in middle shabelle is bigger than non Abgaal mudulood in Hirshabelle this is just one village. ha isku qaldina Abgaalka Xamar iyo Hirshabelle.

Harti abgaal alone are bigger than XL let alone wacbudhan who are the biggest sub of abgaal. Nowadays most abgaal in Somalia live in xamar. There are at least 1.5 million abgaal in xamar. That’s more XL than in this earth let alone abgaal in middle shabelle and galgaduud. XL only live in hiran and they are 50% there. So around 300k in hiraan. Only reason XL in hirshabelle can be compared to abgaal is because abgaal of HS focus on xamar more but if they moved back to their ancestral village, they’d be much more