I think 'most' significant development for Somalia in the next 50 years is MX & MJ elite socio-politico contract in work

[Gubbet]

So you think mareexaan can subdue all other dooros in Kismayo. It's very unlikely. Simply because you are not the absolute majority of the town your civilians can't outnumber the combined civilians of the kablalax. So you can't use your peaple like the qurjiiles did in LA. Madoobe forces are also well equipped and more funded than yours. They even have more access to the SNA compare to you .

The cagdheer in Kismayo are not as weak as you think. KDF boss is cagdheer himself , he can prolong Their stay and convince his master to put Kismayo under the direct protection of Kenya without the AU mandate. Culusaw himself knows he will flee from Mogadishu with the UN helicopter if the foreign forces leave too soon. He prefers them to stay while he is pushing alshabaab out of his huttuland to the Mayland. in my opinion mareexaan has no chance through violence. I like your confidence though , Ku soco

Unfortunately, you have a lot to learn about both Marehan, Jubbaland, and even southern Somalia.

The 1/4 of Marehan in central Somalia are equal to all of Habar Gidir.

The 3/4 of Marehan on the Jubba River are equal to all of southern Somalia.

And they proved it, historically, premodern, and even modernly in the civil war they called Muslim vs MX.

Kismaayo?

I told you my sub-clan of Reer Siyaad who is 1/13 Reer Diini sub-clans of 1/33 MX sub-clans can remove Madoobe and any other Somali group from Kismaayo---maxaad leedahay walaaloow?

Faan hadii ay kula tahay dee yeelkadeed.

[Gubbet]

Nabbadoon Ibraahim Dheere's full comments (probably one of if not the most substantive impromptu Somali statements I have ever heard;

[theyuusuf143]

Good lucky brother , I hope your wishes come true. It's fascinating to see mareexaan rising again, miracles .

[Murax]

Will any God fearing MJ anywhere tell Gubbet one time we want to be your friend please

[Gubbet]

I think it is time I started an actual exposition on what is wrong with Marehan and how to overcome it using Gubbet v. Murax/Nomand, et al.

• They were with these statements on reaching a political settlement with Ogaden;
  

  Ogaden specifically one sub-clan love the status quo. They'd need great incentive to even consider a political settlement. Once they feel the heat they will come to the table. Now they don't need to.

  There won't be a settlement as long as amisom is in somalia. If amisom leaves it won't be required things will settle as they where pre amisom.

  MX needs it but why Ogadeen? The status quo is perfect for them

  
  
  Marehan men---just like myself; yet 3 statements whose limiting detractions not only confirm for me that Marehan and Ogaden do need a political settlement, but even reinforces the feeling it is required.
  
  These 3 statements present self-absorption. They contain elements of ego, zero-sum existentialism, and coercion as the power of domination is Right.
  
  This is expressed as something conditioned by Madoobe, but if all 3 were asked (and which Nomand has preemptively answered) in their belief of beliefs, Madoobe is temporary, the circumstance is unnatural, and they are absolutely confident Marehan will replace Madoobe , sooner or later but will at the conclusion to Kenya's troop presence.
  
  The statements expressed come from the poisoned fruit at the heart of Somali statelessness and dysfunctionality---namely, conquer, subjugation, dictate over discussion, control not consent as the end goal.
  
  Essentially the statements have not been stated for Ogaden or for their reality or even really for them. Rather the only function they serve is to facilitate the inevitable Marehan conquer---when it happens---which they all believe will happen.
  
  The question then becomes----forget about speaking for Ogaden or Madoobe but rather speaking just for yourself and what you would 'like' to see, would you 'like' to see a Marehan and Ogaden that have reached a political settlement and have turned Jubbaland politics from adversarial competition to collaborative cooperation? Or would you like to see the inverse and conquer vs defeat, winner vs loser, subjugation vs disorder, and repetition of history?
  
  Not what you think others want or will accept gentlemen, but speaking just for yourself and vision of what you would like to see!
  
  p.s. And you will reserve the presumption of innocence to my intention as I insist.
  
  https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 1#p5059721
  

  
  
  
• They disdained and even derided my resistance to Shimbir [even while as a reer Siyaad breaking with what is so wrong with divisive sub-clannism)
  
  
• They also derided and disdained my longtime unchanging, unyielding opposition to Fartaag, Janan.
  
  
• They derided and disdained my strong opposition to Farmaajo's heavy handed use of state power against opposition.
  
  
• They derided and disdained my dissent to Farmaajo's Beled-Xaawo surrender deal.
  
  
• Yet Murax pens love letters to "adeec" to Culusoow now and Nomand just said;
  
  

  Instead of working with ulusow- use him to gain leverage.

Walaalayaal, this is IRRATIONALITY.

THE PROBLEM WITH MAREHAN, AND INDEED MUCH OF SOMALIS POLITICS IS A CYCLE OF CIRCULAR IRRATIONALITY.

[Gubbet]

Ugas Mohamed has gone to Laascaanood.

[Gubbet]

Fr Prime Minister Saacid Shirdoon has arrived in Garowe



So too has the VP of Galmudug, Ali Dahir Eid

[Gubbet]

I cannot stress both the "generational" importance as well as uniqueness of what is afoot.

The 'MJ' population doesn't yet understand it nor is prepared for it. The 'MX' population similarly doesn't yet understand nor is prepared for it.

The opening to the topic from Spring, last year. Let no one say I don't know Darod Somalia.

[BigBreak]

Darod in its entirety is no match for Hawiye either politically or militarily. 3 Irir ruled countries (Somalia, Somaliland and Djibouti) based on colonial made borders is the only end result

[Gubbet]

Bigbreak, waad wareertaye, meel fadhiiso walaaloow

[Gubbet]

Cali Daahir Ciid, VP of Galmudug, becomes the 1st non-Dhulbahante FMS representative to visit SSC after Puntland VP Ahmed Karaash.

Next to SSC president Firdhiye, Ciid says the "reality" of Galmudug is dependent on the recognition of "SSC State" as a commensurate physical, material, and spiritual "equal."