You have no idea what you are talking about. You are just going through the usual talking points.
You think Somalia is rising, based on what exactly? A shiny new Turkish building?
Reality is the situation for much of Somalia has not changed much of late. Mogadishu is still ungovernable, much of the countryside is not under control of the government. And the massive elephant in the room being 22,000 foreign troops needed just to keep this weak government on life support. Wishing that within less than 3 years they will not be needed anymore is, as I said, nothing more than fan fiction. You can not wish your problems away. Al Shabab will still be there, the divisions will still be there, all the mess that is created through this federal structure will not go away. It will weaken Somalia even further when the president is competing for powers with other so called 'federal presidents'. Its a big mess.
Al Shabab would not survive a day if they did not have local support, the communities that became disillusioned with southern politics strongly support them. They are not going anywhere.
As I stated, if Somalia spirals further down this pitt, the international community will have no choice but to fast-fast track Somaliland into complete de jure status. It was indeed very close in 2006-2008 when actual discussions happened on the subject. You have no idea what you are talking about. The AU fact finding mission explicitly said Somaliland's case should be judged "from an objective historical viewpoint and a moral angle vis-à-vis the aspirations of the people", and that the AU should "find a special method for dealing with Somaliland". International crisis group recommended Somaliland to be given observer status in the AU. Behind closed doors, the recognition of Somaliland is certainly discussed. It will, in the end, come down to one of the two options outlined above, and Somaliland will win the long game no matter how much wishful thinking you spew here.
The legal case for Somaliland's reclaiming of her independence is not 'fairly relevant', its solid. By all accounts including South Africa's Department of Foreign Affairs, it can not get any clearer than "it is undeniable that Somaliland does indeed qualify for statehood, and it is incumbent on the international community to recognise it. Any efforts to deny or delay would not only put the
international community at risk of ignoring the most stable region in the Horn." The clan issue does not come into this, and if it did, it would be solved through a referendum inside the borders of Somaliland. This will most certainly return a resounding yes vote, you know this.
Isaaq make up at least 70% of the population of Somaliland (going by voter registration, the number may be even higher), Dhulbahante alone is around 10%, with Warsangeli you become 15%, the same size as Gudabursi + Ciise. But that is not important. Your largest town supports Somaliland. So you have basically Isaaq + Dir + our Dhulos vs the Dhulos holed up in Buuhoodle. You lose. Your land is no where near 30% let alone 45%, no need for exaggerations here. You will be given your fair share of the pie.
As for your wet dream of a "future Somalia government which is strong and respectable"... Well, what can I say, you continue to live in a fantasy, and you have the cheek to accuse Idoor of living in Ictiraafland.
Somalia will be neither strong or respectable any time soon. Your best case scenario, if --again, massive if-- it got its shit together, it would still be a weak fragile state. They will not be able to refuse to sit on the table and sign the dotted line. A referendum, inside the territory of Somaliland is inescapable for you. So, in essence, your best case scenario, that Somalia gets on its feet, is actually in the interests of Somaliland. Our borders are internationally recognised, like borders of any country in Africa, our case is very strong, the referendum will be fair, perhaps the mysterious qurjiile clan will not boycott the vote this time and overwhelm the Isaaq + Dir + Somalilander Harti in numbers?
I would actually love for the independence referendum to be conducted in Togdheer Sool and Sanaag only, or even in Sool Sanaag Cayn regions only, it would most certainly return a yes vote.
