Samadoon, Jubbaland and the Somali state generally are in a race against time but we have two things and a half going for us:
1. Kenya is at a baby stage in petroleum development. It takes a long leap from the preliminary stage Kenya is in to the advance method of attempting dubious horizontal drilling. It takes a lot of infrastructure and capital and hubris to attempt to cover the sedimentary thickness of the Mandera-Lugh basin by attempting horizontal drilling. Besides where can Kenya drill horizontal? Somalia side itself does not have established wells, otherwise it is like walking blind at night.

If Gedo, Somalia had working wells to target, at least Kenya can aim for a specific place to target for maximum cost-effectiveness. There are no wells to target and this compounds Kenya's problems along with lack of infrastructure and developed petroleum infrastructure. They are at baby exploration now, not even production.
2. Kenya is not a rogue state. It is not like Iraq. Kenya despite its corruption is one of the most professional countries in Africa and has mechanisms in place that are fostering better governance now especially the new US pushed constitution and the freedom with which domestic Kenya watch groups keep their government in check. If Kenya was a dictatorship with a strongman, I would not put it past them to make unilateral moves like horizontal drilling if they get to that stage. But Kenya is not even Ethiopia and is constrained by its own checks and balances.
3. The half is Kenya knows better and knows how vengeful the Somali state will be if they do attempt and we find out. Unless Kenyans have lost all fear of us in the last 20 years and forgot what we are capable of as a State, I half expect them to be also constrained by the potential repercussions we can unleash on them when we are in a better stage in the near future.
