No evidence for balkanization policies in Somalia despite Dr

[IRONm@N]

By Ethiopian Embassy:

No evidence for balkanization policies in Somalia despite Dr. Weinstein’s claims

Events in Somalia continue to attract a great deal of attention, comment and analysis. This is hardly surprising but it remains of concern that so much of this comment and alleged ‘analysis’ continues to draw on information from partial and frequently inaccurate and misleading sources. It is, after all, naïve to accept reports from civil war conflict situations at face value, and virtually all of the many Somali websites take overtly partisan positions, to the extent that they have been described as “tabloids of tribal malevolence”. Other information often comes from sources which are partial. Use of any of these should be made with extreme care.

Last month, Dr. Michael Weinstein, a Professor of Political Science at Purdue University in the United States, published an analysis of Kenyan involvement in Somalia entitled “Kenya’s Premature Invasions of Southern Somalia Stalls Balkanization”, a title which underlines a repeated and persistent thread in the writings of Dr. Weinstein who has been a prolific and extensive commentator on events in Somalia for several years, writing a monthly column for a US think tank – the Power and Interest News Report (PINR) in Chicago. Dr. Weinstein has not himself been to Somalia but he says he monitors “local, regional and international media, and official documents on a daily basis to get a sense of the concrete flow of events [in Somalia].” He does not, however, indicate how, if at all, he evaluates these sources or the Somali websites he follows, presumably in English, or whether he is troubled by any doubts about their accuracy. In fact, it is clear he considers all of them of equal merit which, given their record, is certainly rash. Dr. Weinstein also adds occasional comment from what he calls “closed sources”. These are unidentified but the phrase is clearly intended to suggest diplomatic or intelligence information, presumably from the US State Department.

The core of Dr. Weinstein’s analyses of Somalia over the years may be summed up by his persistent criticisms of Washington policy and his insistence that Kenya, Ethiopia and other regional powers wish to “balkanize” Somalia, a claim which not surprisingly is seized upon by Al-Shabaab for propaganda purposes. This latest piece opens with the assertion that in the second half of November “the process of dividing the territories of post-independence Somalia into a set of dependencies on regional powers (Ethiopia and Kenya) entered its first and tentative phase and immediately stalled.” Dr. Weinstein suggests that Kenya and Ethiopia were aiming to break Al-Shabaab’s control in southern and central regions. That was hardly a secret though Ethiopia at that point hadn’t in fact intervened inside Somalia again. It was only this last week that Ethiopian troops participated in the TFG’s recapture of Belet Weyne from Al-Shabaab (see above). Dr. Weinstein, however, then argued not for the first time, that this “balkanization” policy would be the first step in an alleged process to replace Al-Shabaab (or Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen –H.S.M as he prefers to call it) with regional authorities dependent upon Kenya or Ethiopia, giving the two countries permanent dominant spheres of influence in Somalia.

Dr. Weinstein did admit there was little prospect that this would take place, but he didn’t acknowledge there was actually no evidence for his suggestion, only journalist claims or allegations by commentators such as himself. In fact, Dr. Weinstein did also admit that by itself getting rid of H.S.M. “does not necessarily involve balkanization”, but is rather a matter of subsequent political structures and groups which might replace Al-Shabaab. Quite so, and this is where his ‘analysis’ collapses as there is nothing to indicate that either Kenya nor Ethiopia either want, or are in a position, to set up client administrations rather than support local administrations associated with the Somali national administration. His ‘analysis’ remains totally speculative: “[Any attempt to balkanize Somalia in the short term] would originate with Kenya, Ethiopia and the organization they dominate I.G.A.D. From that starting point in the middle of the presumptive proxy chain, the regional powers would have to work down to secure viable client administrations in the south and center, and up to get the backing of the international coalition, the “donor” powers working through the UN.” It is, in fact, all very hypothetical and offers no more than barely plausible possibilities and indeed, as Dr. Weinstein adds, “the regional powers have thus far not succeeded in moving either down or up the chain.” In other words, none of this is actually happening, nor have there been any indication of political structures or groups prepared to function in this way.

All of this might be dismissed as no more than vague abstractions by an ill-informed commentator but for the fact that ‘balkanization’ is an idea that Dr. Weinstein has repeatedly claimed to be at the root of Ethiopian and Kenyan policies towards Somalia. This idea, for which one must repeat there simply isn’t any evidence, feeds the paranoia of some Somalis and reinforces the claims and propaganda of Al-Shabaab. In his previous article (“Kenya’s Political Failure in Southern Somalia” 12.11.2011) Dr. Weinstein makes the same suggestion in a slightly different form: offering the equally unproven hypothesis that “as it looks ever less probable that the U.N.-managed “transition” of Somalia to a permanent constitutional state will succeed, the alternative remains partition, balkanization, cantonization.” Back last July, he was raising the issue of “Somalia: The Possibility of Balkanization” and claiming that “the expedient concerns of the West might force balkanization on Somalia, for better or worse.” As usual, no evidence was on offer.

In fact, as long ago as 2006/7 Dr. Weinstein was claiming on the basis of allegations from Somali media sources that Ethiopia was trying to dismember Somalia. This was one of the propaganda ideas that journalists, and commentators, swallowed wholesale at the time and have frequently repeated despite a complete lack of any evidence to support the claim, and in the face of considerable evidence to the contrary. Any serious study of Ethiopian policy towards Somalia would certainly note that Ethiopia actually wants a stable and quiescent, but not a divided, Somalia, whether it operates under a federal system or some other dispensation. It has made a number of efforts in this direction with the conferences in Addis Ababa in the 1990s, and at Sodere, and subsequently. It has clearly demonstrated it is quite prepared to co-operate with the Transitional Federal Government whether under President Abdullahi Yusuf or President Sheikh Sharif, and the Djibouti Agreement and other accords. Despite this, the claim of dismemberment is not the only claim going back to 2006 which has been elevated by repetition to the status of alleged fact for some ‘analysts’. Others frequently quoted by commentators include the idea that the Union of Islamic Courts produced six months of peace in Somalia after June 2006 and that Courts offered a genuine national political formula as an alternative to the clan sectarianism of the warlords or the TFG. Neither claim stands up to any serious examination of events in Somalia and in Mogadishu in 2006 or subsequently, nor does the claim of dismemberment or partition.

Dr. Weinstein is not just wrong over Ethiopian or Kenyan policies towards Somalia. His attempts at analyzing Somali politics have consistently been marked by a consistent failure to understand their basis. Most noticeably, he seldom mentions the word clan despite the fact that this is the most fundamental element of all Somali politics. Indeed, in almost all his comments during the last few years, Dr. Weinstein has shown no understanding of the divisions within Hawiye politics, the differences, for example, between the Habr Gidir, and in particular the Ayr/Habr Gidir, and the Abgal/Mudalood, which remain central to political divisions in Mogadishu. He consistently neglects the relationship of the Habr Gidir sub-clans, the clan factors in Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a (or indeed in Al-Shabaab), just as he largely ignored the clan make-up of the Union of Islamic Courts in 2006, making the fundamentally erroneous assumption that the “the Courts were a genuine attempt at Somali national unification”. He has continued to make similar assumptions about Al-Shabaab. He fails to appreciate the political groupings within the Transitional Federal Parliament which he appears to regard as a body operating outside clans and even as a coherent body.

Dr. Weinstein also demonstrates consistent ignorance over the politics of the wider Horn of Africa. His comments on Eritrean policy suggests he has entirely failed to understand the aims and intentions of the regime in Asmara, its attempted use of the Eritrea-Ethiopia border issue or the vaulting regional ambitions of President Isaias. He has made little or no apparent effort to look at the evidence readily and publicly available for any evaluation of Ethiopia's aims and intentions in Somalia, or in the region. When he does, relying as he does on second-hand comment, often from unreliable and highly partial sources, he frequently gets it wrong. Almost all of Dr, Weinstein's ideas and conclusions simply ignore the realities of Somali and regional politics, despite the fact that the current configurations of power and interest exactly demonstrate these realities. In fact, Dr. Weinstein tries to analyze regional politics in the abstract from the perspective of a political scientist/theorist in the US who has never been to Somalia or the region. The result is that he misunderstands almost every single aspect of events in Somalia as well as the aims and intentions of Somali political actors, whether they are for or against the TFG, as well as Somalia's neighbors. None of this would matter too much, but Dr. Weinstein’s example is followed by far too many ‘analysts’ and commentators who fail to look at the evidence available and allow themselves to be manipulated by others. According to his curriculum vitae, Dr. Weinstein’s interests have included psychoanalytic theory, existential phenomenology, the sociology of knowledge, structuralism and post structuralism as well as political science. He specializes in various aspects of post-modernist theory and his published works include studies in deconstruction, metatheory and culture critique – a real jack of all trades!

The only valid point made by Dr. Weinstein in his latest piece is that if reconciliation and the deployment of AMISOM fail, Somalia might then fragment. This certainly remains a real danger, and it is to be regretted that so much of Dr. Weinstein's writing appears dedicated to encouraging fragmentation, dissolution and dissension in Somalia. He consistently appears to give credence to virtually every negative rumor that emanates from Mogadishu via Nairobi. We would repeat: it is important that commentators and analysts make every effort to evaluate the source of their information and base their analysis on the realities of the situation. The international community must get it right if a solution is to be found for Somalia. Inaccurate and partial comment does not help.
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I think Dr Wiestien is right and Ethiopian government is trying to silence him or discredit him for exposing them.

[Shirib]

Yes Ethiopia, we believe u. U don't wanna balkanize Somalia, u want a strong Somali nation. We absolutely trust that's what ur trynna do.

[Coeus]

Whoever wrote this piece of garbage is pro Kenya & anti somali. Somalia is being balkanized by its neighbours. And if this piece of shit of Author believes Kenya & Ethiopia are in Somalia to save us. Then i have a bridge i want to sell to this guy.

[IRONm@N]

Whoever wrote this piece of garbage is pro Kenya & anti somali. Somalia is being balkanized by its neighbours. And if this piece of shit of Author believes Kenya & Ethiopia are in Somalia to save us. Then i have a bridge i want to sell to this guy.

This is wrote my Ethiopian consulate in DC to defend agains Dr. wiestein claims that they are balkanizing Somalia

[Coeus]

Whoever wrote this piece of garbage is pro Kenya & anti somali. Somalia is being balkanized by its neighbours. And if this piece of shit of Author believes Kenya & Ethiopia are in Somalia to save us. Then i have a bridge i want to sell to this guy.

This is wrote my Ethiopian consulate in DC to defend agains Dr. wiestein claims that they are balkanizing Somalia

Amazing that a aid dependent third world shithole has time to answer an american article, but cannot feed its people. They are used to silence their own journalists,so they get hysteric when someone abroad calls it how he sees it.

[Shirib]

Whoever wrote this piece of garbage is pro Kenya & anti somali. Somalia is being balkanized by its neighbours. And if this piece of shit of Author believes Kenya & Ethiopia are in Somalia to save us. Then i have a bridge i want to sell to this guy.

This is wrote my Ethiopian consulate in DC to defend agains Dr. wiestein claims that they are balkanizing Somalia

Amazing that a aid dependent third world shithole has time to answer an american article, but cannot feed its people. They are used to silence their own journalists,so they get hysteric when someone abroad calls it how he sees it.

But they have more say of what happens in Somalia, then most other groups

[Coeus]

Thats is very sad but true. Btw Shirib how was the seattle conference?

[Shirib]

Thats is very sad but true. Btw Shirib how was the seattle conference?

it went very well. There are some youtube video's up on their facebook page.

whole video should come out soon.