Great News ISIS is losing the War Kobani about to fall

[Khalid Ali]

s U.S. coalition winning war vs. ISIS?
By Peter Bergen and Emily Schneider
Updated 1442 GMT (2242 HKT) February 1, 2015
Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.
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Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.
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Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to <a href="http://time.com/3423522/turkey-syria-is ... -refugees/" target="_blank">Time magazine</a>, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.
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Syrian Kurds fleeing ISIS militants wait behind a fence in Suruc on Sunday, September 21.
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A elderly man is carried after crossing the Syria-Turkey border near Suruc on Saturday, September 20.
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A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter launches mortar shells toward ISIS militants in Zumar, Iraq, on Monday, September 15.
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Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.
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Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.
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Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24.
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Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.
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Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/18/world/mea ... index.html"> retook the dam</a> from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.
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Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.
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Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.
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Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.
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Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.
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Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.
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Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances.
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A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.
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A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.
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Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25.
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New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.
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Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.
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Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.
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Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.
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A Kurdish marksman looks over a destroyed area of Kobani, Syria, on Friday, January 30. Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, had been under assault by ISIS since mid-September.
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Smoke billows in the background as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters take position in Kirkuk, Iraq, on January 30.
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Relatives of Moaz al-Kassasbeh, a Jordanian pilot who was captured in December by ISIS militants, protest in front of the Royal Palace in Amman, Jordan, on Wednesday, January 28. ISIS has threatened to kill al-Kassasbeh and Japanese hostage Kenji Goto if Jordan does not release Sajida al-Rishawi, a convicted would-be suicide bomber.
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Kurdish people celebrate in Suruc, Turkey, near the Turkish-Syrian border, after ISIS militants were expelled from Kobani, Syria, on Tuesday, January 27.
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Collapsed buildings are seen in Kobani on January 27 after Kurdish forces took control of the town from ISIS. ISIS has been making advances in Iraq and Syria as it seeks to create an Islamic caliphate in the region.
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Junko Ishido, mother of Japanese journalist Kenji Goto, reacts during a news conference in Tokyo on Friday, January 23. ISIS has already claimed to kill another Japanese hostage, Haruna Yukawa.
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ISIS militants are seen through a rifle's scope during clashes with Peshmerga fighters in Mosul, Iraq, on Wednesday, January 21.
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An elderly Yazidi arrives in Kirkuk, Iraq, on Saturday, January 17, after being released by ISIS. The militant group released about 200 Yazidis who were held captive for five months in Iraq. Almost all of the freed prisoners were in poor health and bore signs of abuse and neglect, Kurdish officials said.
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An identification card lies in the dirt in the Hardan village in northern Iraq on Monday, December 22. A handful of Yazidis who fled when ISIS overran the town in August returned after Kurdish fighters drove the extremists out.
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Smoke billows behind an ISIS sign during an Iraqi military operation to regain control of the town of Sadiyah, about 95 kilometers (60 miles) north of Baghdad, on Tuesday, November 25.
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Fighters from the Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish People's Protection Units join forces to fight ISIS in Kobani on Wednesday, November 19.
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A picture taken from Turkey shows smoke rising after ISIS militants fired mortar shells toward an area controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters near Kobani on Monday, November 3.
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Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on Thursday, October 30, after retaking the area from ISIS.
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ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets in Syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.
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Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they combat ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19.
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A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.
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Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on October 18.
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Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.
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Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds were held there after crossing from Syria into Turkey. Tens of thousands of people fled Kobani to escape ISIS.
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Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.
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Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.
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In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.
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A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 30.
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Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.
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Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.
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Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to <a href="http://time.com/3423522/turkey-syria-is ... -refugees/" target="_blank">Time magazine</a>, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.
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Syrian Kurds fleeing ISIS militants wait behind a fence in Suruc on Sunday, September 21.
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A elderly man is carried after crossing the Syria-Turkey border near Suruc on Saturday, September 20.
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A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter launches mortar shells toward ISIS militants in Zumar, Iraq, on Monday, September 15.
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Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.
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Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.
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Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24.
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Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.
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Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/18/world/mea ... index.html"> retook the dam</a> from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.
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Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.
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Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.
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Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.
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Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.
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Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.
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Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances.
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A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.
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A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.
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Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25.
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New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.
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Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.
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Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.
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Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.
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A Kurdish marksman looks over a destroyed area of Kobani, Syria, on Friday, January 30. Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, had been under assault by ISIS since mid-September.
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Smoke billows in the background as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters take position in Kirkuk, Iraq, on January 30.
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Relatives of Moaz al-Kassasbeh, a Jordanian pilot who was captured in December by ISIS militants, protest in front of the Royal Palace in Amman, Jordan, on Wednesday, January 28. ISIS has threatened to kill al-Kassasbeh and Japanese hostage Kenji Goto if Jordan does not release Sajida al-Rishawi, a convicted would-be suicide bomber.
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Kurdish people celebrate in Suruc, Turkey, near the Turkish-Syrian border, after ISIS militants were expelled from Kobani, Syria, on Tuesday, January 27.
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Collapsed buildings are seen in Kobani on January 27 after Kurdish forces took control of the town from ISIS. ISIS has been making advances in Iraq and Syria as it seeks to create an Islamic caliphate in the region.
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Junko Ishido, mother of Japanese journalist Kenji Goto, reacts during a news conference in Tokyo on Friday, January 23. ISIS has already claimed to kill another Japanese hostage, Haruna Yukawa.
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ISIS militants are seen through a rifle's scope during clashes with Peshmerga fighters in Mosul, Iraq, on Wednesday, January 21.
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An elderly Yazidi arrives in Kirkuk, Iraq, on Saturday, January 17, after being released by ISIS. The militant group released about 200 Yazidis who were held captive for five months in Iraq. Almost all of the freed prisoners were in poor health and bore signs of abuse and neglect, Kurdish officials said.
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An identification card lies in the dirt in the Hardan village in northern Iraq on Monday, December 22. A handful of Yazidis who fled when ISIS overran the town in August returned after Kurdish fighters drove the extremists out.
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Smoke billows behind an ISIS sign during an Iraqi military operation to regain control of the town of Sadiyah, about 95 kilometers (60 miles) north of Baghdad, on Tuesday, November 25.
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Fighters from the Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish People's Protection Units join forces to fight ISIS in Kobani on Wednesday, November 19.
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A picture taken from Turkey shows smoke rising after ISIS militants fired mortar shells toward an area controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters near Kobani on Monday, November 3.
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Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on Thursday, October 30, after retaking the area from ISIS.
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ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets in Syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.
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Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they combat ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19.
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A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.
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Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on October 18.
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Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.
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Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds were held there after crossing from Syria into Turkey. Tens of thousands of people fled Kobani to escape ISIS.
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Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.
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Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.
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In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.
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A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 30.
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Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.
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Story highlights
Bergen: Five months after Obama pledged to destroy ISIS, it still controls large territory and attracts support.
He says Chuck Hagel may be right, that U.S. military may need to be near front lines
Peter Bergen is CNN's national security analyst, a director at the New America Foundation and the author of "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for bin Laden -- From 9/11 to Abbottabad." Emily Schneider is a research associate at the New America Foundation.

(CNN)Nearly five months ago, President Obama spoke to the nation from the White House and declared: "Our objective is clear. We will degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL (also known as ISIS) through a comprehensive and sustained counterterrorism strategy."

Since then, the United States has provided advisers to the Iraqi military in its fight with ISIS and has bombed ISIS positions. But in an interview with CNN last week, outgoing Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel raised the prospect that the United States might need to expand its involvement.

Peter Bergen
Peter Bergen
Over this weekend, ISIS again dominated headlines and TV news coverage around the world with the news that the group claims it had beheaded a second Japanese hostage, journalist Kenji Goto.

All of which raises the question: How is ISIS doing as it confronts the U.S.-led military campaign against it in both Iraq and Syria? And should the United States get more actively involved on the front lines of the fight, at least in Iraq, where the government is pushing for greater American involvement in its fight against ISIS?

U.S. officials assert the coalition has killed more than 6,000 ISIS fighters since the start of the campaign.

That's a significant loss when you consider that ISIS currently has a core force of 9,000 to 18,000 fighters, according to U.S. intelligence estimates. U.S. officials also estimate that ISIS can also draw on manpower from other militant groups to bulk up to a force of around 30,000.

Gen, Lloyd Austin, the commander of U.S. Central Command who oversees the campaign against ISIS, said last week that as a result of the campaign of airstrikes the group is developing a "manpower issue."

Balanced against this, however, is the fact ISIS continues to recruit at a fast clip. In October, U.S. officials estimated that there were around 1,000 recruits joining ISIS per month from overseas.

Underlining the importance of that steady flow of ISIS recruits, the head of U.S. Special Operations Command, Gen. Joseph L. Votel, said last week that since the Syrian war began over three years ago, "more than 19,000 foreign fighters from 90 different countries have traveled to Syria and Iraq."

So if the CENTCOM campaign is killing around 1,200 ISIS fighters a month and yet ISIS continues -- at least for the moment -- to recruit an estimated 1,000 fighters from overseas a month, the campaign against them has succeeded only to a modest degree.

Hagel told CNN's Barbara Starr last week it might be necessary to send noncombat American troops to help Iraqi troops on the front lines to fight ISIS.

"We have to look at all the options, and I think it may require a forward deployment of some of our troops -- not doing the fighting, not doing the combat work that we did at one time for six years in Iraq and we did for many, many years in Afghanistan, but to help airstrike precision (locate targets)," he told Starr.

Indeed, the introduction of American forward air controllers to call in precise U.S. airstrikes and of U.S. Special Forces embedded with Iraqi units on the front lines will ultimately be necessary if the goal of American policy is to defeat ISIS, rather than simply playing for a draw with the group, which is, de facto, the current Obama administration policy.

On Friday, ISIS launched a surprise attack on Kirkuk in northern Iraq, the largely Kurdish city that is a key to Iraq's oil production. The attack appears to be a strategic decision meant to draw Kurdish fighters away from Mosul, ISIS's overall base in Iraq. ISIS has controlled Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, since June, but in the past month, Kurdish forces have closed in around it.

Kurdish authorities said last week that they've cut a key supply line to ISIS in Mosul and have taken back some 300 square miles of land around the city from the group.

Beyond the Mosul area, ISIS has lost ground in Iraq elsewhere. The Iraqi army pushed the group out of Diyala province, an important region close to Baghdad as well as more than 1,000 square miles in the Sinjar region in eastern Iraq.

Further, a number of ISIS's leaders have been killed in U.S. airstrikes.

And in Syria last week, ISIS lost control of Kobani, a small town on the Syrian-Turkish border where many of the US-led airstrikes have been concentrated.

But overall, ISIS is maintaining its ground in Syria in spite of those airstrikes. At least one-third of Syria is under ISIS's control.

A number of estimates suggest that ISIS controls a population of around 8 million people in Iraq and Syria. ISIS calls itself the Islamic State and while this may seem a tad pretentious it makes more sense when you realize the group presently lords over a population around the size of the population of Switzerland.

Militants gain new allies despite setbacks

At the same time, ISIS's influence keeps growing around the Muslim world. In the past six months, ISIS has drawn into its fold some dozen militant groups from Algeria to Pakistan.

These affiliates aren't wasting any time in carrying out attacks in the name of ISIS. On January 27, gunmen claiming to be affiliated with ISIS attacked the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, Libya, which is favored by government officials and foreigners. They killed 10 people after storming into the lobby and firing guns at hotel guests. Five of the victims were foreigners, one an American.

Two days later, at least 32 people were killed in a series of attacks on soldiers and police in Sinai in eastern Egypt. The terrorist group known as the Province of Sinai has claimed responsibility for the attacks and had pledged allegiance to ISIS in November.

ISIS has recently claimed even more recruits, as it moved into new territory in Yemen, competing there with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

A Yemeni official who spoke to CNN in January said that the AQAP cadre still significantly outnumbers those in ISIS, but the move into Yemen is significant for the group as it a country where al Qaeda has maintained a presence for more than a decade.

Similarly, in Afghanistan in the southern province of Helmand, a cell of more than 300 fighters loyal to ISIS is led by a former Taliban commander, Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim.

Militant groups across the Muslim world see the success ISIS has had so far in Syria and Iraq and opt to join it -- often leaving behind organizations plagued by infighting.

The perks they get in return for waving the black flag of ISIS include affiliation with the fastest-growing terrorist group on the planet and a bustling propaganda machine with a strong social media network.

From Afghanistan to Libya, militant groups who once would have looked to al Qaeda for guidance now look to ISIS.

The best way to begin to reverse this is to cripple ISIS in Iraq, where the group has shown itself to be the most adept terrorist group of the modern era, taking control of cities like Mosul, whose population numbers 1.5 million people.

Urban warfare is the hardest kind of warfare and it's hard to imagine that the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces will successfully pull off retaking Mosul on their own.

Winning Mosul back from ISIS will be much more likely if the there are American air controllers calling in close air support strikes against ISIS positions and U.S. Special Forces working side by side with Iraqi units.

Of course, there are risks associated with this. U.S. troops may be killed or injured, but there are also risks associated with the fact that the longer ISIS controls vast swaths of the Middle East, more and more foreign fighters will pour in from Western countries for training with the group and some will seek to bring their skills home to attack the West.

[Khalid Ali]

Isis os finished turkey should help defeat these jihadist