QOSLAAYE | Monday, September 18, 2000 - 06:31 am Dear Reader: I am trying to keep the impartiality. Just make up your mind. Never before, so few has decisively manipulated and set the agenda of Somalia. Never before, a farce of consistency and commitment wielded such a might and fear on the outcome! Allot is at stake! Doctrines are in stake! Crocodile tears of world commitment and donor fatigue are at stake! Most important Somali Future is at stake, in the believe, that if we don't come up a government we would perish and disappear from the planet. This is a show of a lifetime, history in the making in front of our own eyes. Somalia per se becomes a lab of international experts, a guinea pig of conflict resolution doctrines; the vagueness, ambiguity and confusion of the agendas are a pillar of conflict resolution, in addressing to satisfy the different and diverging contenders. This is a main pillar of pretension, in the view that all the contenders might picture their interests in the agenda, if it is vague and ambiguous. Theoretically the only documental agreement that can satisfy both contenders (Eg. Israel and Palestine) has to be vague. To make them at least come to the same table, they both has to sign a vague document each can see it's own interest! And when they come to the table the mediator or facilitator is needed to twist the hands of the participants. That is why most of the time each would interpret differently the same document, they both signed! The reliability of the vagueness hinges on the honesty and sincerity of the mediator or the facilitator, or in that matter, the believe, that diverging contenders might find a neutral facilitator! Conflict resolution experts have found one for Somalia, in the name of Jabuti! Every Somali bought the Idea that at "Heart" Jabuti is Honest and have no ulterior agenda beside stable Somalia! But what happens, when some of the competing contenders didn't not see their interest; in the "Pillar of conflict resolution"? Easy! In the minds of experts they can solve this by picking and imposing a representative to a contender. The fluidity of the Somali clan structure might support this goal; culturally any member of that clan can represent the clan. Delegates had been based to clan memberships, and every Puntlander can represent a Puntlander legally and rightfully. By the time Puntland elite and delegates accepted a clan representation, Puntland state government has lost its shaky ground! Conflict resolution experts have set in motion the mechanics of their lab; Somalia. A) They have a neutral facilitator, Jabuti B) They have all the divergent competing contenders of Somalia; Clan Delegates. C) And they have the means and theories to test in realization of the illusive common goal of all Somalis; State. After the end of the cold war, the advocates of conflict resolution have lost almost all their clients and become out of work. All the precious studies were based on resolving conflicts that inhibit cold war influence, all the consulting firms has to be closed. All dissertations have to be discarded. Conflict resolution experts who haven't seen a check a while are feasting the Somali debacle! But conflict resolution doctrines have another much adored pillar; "Civil Society". This pillar's argument was based on assumptions of the existence of an established and institutionalized state. There are two arguments: A) The course a state takes is largely influenced by its "civil society". B) The impact "Civil society" has on the course of state is largely dependent, on the role state institutions allow for the Civil Society to play. The first one states that "Civil Society" can unilaterally influence the course of political actions a state takes. Or in Somali case, "Civil Society" can unilaterally create a state. All cold war veterans have adopted this theory with the encouragement of western states. Poland of the eighties was case in hand; Somalia is in the process of making this theory, "You Believe". The other one argues, civil society is powerless. It only plays to a large degree the role government institutions allow. Case in hand is the American civil movement. Even thought, to a large extent "Civil Society" was relentlessly advocating the rights of the "Negroes", they didn't have impact before government institutions flexed their muscles in favor of the movement. Somalia is also a testing ground. Like a vulture that doesn't care which Caracas would be the next meal, conflict resolution experts have found "El Dorado" demand for their expertise from Bosnia, Asia and to the Horn of Africa. It is unfortunate that Somalia becomes a statistical footnote for the conflict resolution experts, but that is the reality!! Now we know the building blocks of the experts. So far their strategies in implementing their doctrines were fiercely successful. But do we know where they are heading!! The outcome of Jabuti would be a big child of conflict resolution experts and would be called "Somali government". But what kind of a government! The effectiveness of the outcome depends on; First the influence of the delegates on the ground and. Second the hand that rocks the rolling chair of the state, Donor money, not Jabuti government. Prediction: Another cycle of influence peddling and new alliances would forge. If the process continuous as it is now and every thing is based on clan delegates, the alliances would be based on clan; Eg. H/Gidir-M/Saleeban a déjà vu of the 60's, which would have a very bad consequence. In the other hand if Somaliland and Puntland administration participate the process, delegates on these regions would be based on districts, participation would be inclusive and alliances would be based on regionalism; Puntland and Rahenweyn land VS Central and North or North and Northeast VS South La arki doonee!!!!!! |