     Cigale | Saturday, March 31, 2001 - 07:04 pm
JOHANNESBURG - The abduction of nine international aid workers by one of Somalia's warlords this week underscored the fragility of the country's new government, which came together seven months ago after a decade of bloody anarchy.
The hostage-taking, which had two aid workers still in custody as of last night, has also exposed flaws in the United Nations-sponsored process that gave rise to the new regime, which clings tenuously to power in the destroyed capital of Mogadishu, analysts said.
''Part of the rationale for the kidnapping was to draw attention to the real state of affairs in Mogadishu, instead of the misrepresented state of affairs put out by the UN-supported transitional government,'' said Ioan Lewis, a Somalia scholar who lives in London. ''It is all falling apart now. The writing is on the wall.''
The aid workers, representing UNICEF, Doctors Without Borders, and the World Health Organization, arrived in Mogadishu Tuesday and were quickly abducted by gunmen believed loyal to Muse Sudi Yalahow, one of four factional leaders who still control large portions of Mogadishu.
Five of the visitors, and a Somali UN worker who was also captured, were released Wednesday. Two more were freed yesterday. The remaining captives, both British, are UN security officers.
Speaking for faction leaders who have formed a loose alliance against the new government, Mohamed Hussein Aidid told Reuters news service that ''the aid workers were sneaked into Mogadishu'' by the government ''to show the international community that they are in control.'' Aidid, the son of the late warlord Mohamed Farah Aidid, who eluded UN and US attempts to arrest him in 1993, said UN officials had snubbed the faction leaders by not telling them of the visit in advance.
Somalia descended into chaos a decade ago with the toppling of the 21-year dictatorship of Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. Rival clan-based factions then turned on each other. Over the next 10 years, Mogadishu was reduced to rubble as 12 rounds of peace talks failed to produce a settlement or a new government.
Determined to restore the UN credibility, which had been badly damaged when its 1992 humanitarian mission dissolved into a deadly military conflict with Aidid, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan personally spearheaded a new round of talks last year. Hosted by neighboring Djibouti, Somalis gathered for five months of almost nonstop talks, culminating with the drafting of an interim constitution last August. The new president, Abdiqasim Salad Hassan, arrived in Mogadishu a few days later.
Despite early popular acceptance, the government faced serious threats from the outset, stemming mostly from flaws in the Djibouti peace process, Lewis and others argue.
Defenders of the process said the talks included a wide range of ''civil society,'' including women and delegates in business, as well as representatives of Somalia's various clans.
But critics argued that the talks were never fully representative, and overreached by trying to set up a central federal government in a deeply factionalized land.
Faction leaders boycotted. So did secessionist regions in northern Somalia and suspicious clans from the south. What ultimately emerged was a central government heavily dominated by a single clan, the Habr Gedir, that had been responsible for most of the violence in Mogadishu and widespread land thefts over the past decade. In addition, many of its leaders, including Abdiqasim and Prime Minister Ali Khalif Galaydh, had been senior officials of the despised Barre regime.
The new government has tried to ease its way into Mogadishu. Lacking the firepower to subdue its rivals, it has tried to win them over by talking. But so far, it hasn't worked.
The factions, which control key parts of the capital including the airport and seaport, have formed an alliance. They have Ethiopia's backing, as well as support from the large Rahanwein clan in the south that lost large swaths of land to the rival Habr Gedir. Two breakaway regions in the north also refuse to acknowledge the government.
Desperate for money and arms, the regime has turned toward its primary patrons, Yemen and Sudan, increasing criticism that Abdiqasim is a militant Islamist, an assertion he dismisses.
Despite the setbacks, UN officials remain hopeful that the new government will overcome the obstacles. Others are not so sure.
''Large areas of real estate in the capital and farmland in the south was stolen by Abdiqasim's clan,'' said John Drysdale, a Somalia scholar in the secessionist Somaliland in the north. ''They promised in Djibouti that all stolen land would be returned, but you can't do that if those who stole the land are in power. That will force opponents to rally.''
Lewis said the United Nations erred by advocating a centralized government.
''It would have been much smarter if the UN had done its utmost to ensure a nonfederal form of government and a loose constitution that allowed bargaining,'' he said.
''The alliance of disreputable warlords in Mogadishu has now put the UN and Abdiqasim into a corner,'' he said, ''with pressure for a countrywide discussion on government. That's a big challenge with a lot of power behind it.''
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