Big economic problems in Ethiopia will force a withdrawl

[James Dahl]

Ethiopia has not cycled/reinforced their troops in Somalia for over 6 months, and are beginning to lose in the Ogaden (they lost Shilabo this week to the ONLF and never managed to retake Qalaafe after they lost it a year ago) and I believe it has to do with the economic gloom in Ethiopia I have mentioned a few times. There is a serious famine in all regions of Ethiopia, and the soaring inflation (which is nearing 100%) points to very irresponsible economic policies of the Zenawi administration which will begin to snowball in the next few years like they did in Zimbabwe.

Ethiopia is printing money like mad to pay for the occupation of Somalia and putting a lid on the political opposition back home, which is increasingly angry. Apparently Addis Ababa is swarming with soldiers on every street, and formerly allied groups to Zenawi such as OPDO (the pro-Federalist Oromo group) and even a wing of the TPLF are forming a new opposition, which will be a much bigger problem for Meles Zenawi than the liberals and academics he threw in prison in 2005, as these guys have militias and territory.

Hunger, as it is in Somalia, is the true enemy though. Many innocent people, especially the weak, elderly and very young, will die of hunger as Ethiopia starves in order to pay for Meles Zenawi's ambitions.

[GENERAL_SNM]

Guhad will be happy with this bit of good news.......
James some somalis, prey allah gives the ethoipian the strength to carry on with the occupation.

[AbdiWahab252]

James,

The faucet is going to be cut off in 2009 if the republicans lose the presidency

[James Dahl]

Well, the territorial concession to southern Sudan, and open fighting between Gumuz and Oromo in the southeast has really shown that Ethiopia has lost its former strength and is incredibly weak at the moment. Even Eritrea invading might be enough to push it over the edge and implode.

[Advo]

James, who do u know better somalis or ethies?

in terms of history, clan/tribal lines, politics?

[FAH1223]

Great News, we already knew it was bound to happen though.

Ethiopia weakening will cause Somalis to think for themselves, not the regional power

[James Dahl]

I know Somali history and clans better, though I have a pretty decent understanding of Oromo clans as well. Ethiopia is a mindbogglingly diverse country though, with thousands of clans making up hundreds of nations, and most of them were conquered by Menelik II around the same time he took over the Ogaden, especially in the south.

[The_Emperior5]

guys but think about it Ethiopia with draws then what somali will still fight and in 10 years they invade somalia again
what the hell

[James Dahl]

10 years is a long time...

[The_Emperior5]

10 years is a long time...

yeah it is but look at somalis fighting almost 20 years what is 10 years the Ethiopians started to invade soo somalis will never have peace oke so if they widraw somalis are really dumb people they willl contineu fighting , makes it easior for Ethiopia to invade somalia once again over 10 years again

[James Dahl]

In 10 years Somalia could have a unified government including the Somali Galbeed and a powerful resource-based economy, and Ethiopia could be broken into 3 pieces.

[djibsomali]

James
look at this report:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7294665.stm

ethiopia central bank is in administration, the economy is gone and will never recover for the next 5 years.
on top the petrol has gone up.
Plus the american got their economy problem and a new administration will follow by the end of this year.

with all this factors:
I have said before the peace agreement was a shamble and not well thought as they are leaving whether by force or by agreement.

Hence my original question
who is gonna help the majerteen!! (tigree lovers)

[The_Emperior5]

In 10 years Somalia could have a unified government including the Somali Galbeed and a powerful resource-based economy, and Ethiopia could be broken into 3 pieces.

hows that possible somalidu have some big tribical issues among them selfs how can they ever unite its not possible not even under shariah law, Somali galbeed region exclude lets talk about only the Somalia from raskambooni till raas caseer how can u unite dem

[FAH1223]

In 10 years Somalia could have a unified government including the Somali Galbeed and a powerful resource-based economy, and Ethiopia could be broken into 3 pieces.

hows that possible somalidu have some big tribical issues among them selfs how can they ever unite its not possible not even under shariah law, Somali galbeed region exclude lets talk about only the Somalia from raskambooni till raas caseer how can u unite dem

Anything is possible. These qabyalaad attitudes started quickly and they could very well end quickly once Somalis have a re-newed unified objective.

Besides, you can't fight each other forever, nothing lasts forever.

[surrender]

guys but think about it Ethiopia with draws then what somali will still fight and in 10 years they invade somalia again
what the hell

whats your point? you want ethiopia to stay?