This is what I told James Dahl on Tue Jun 08, 2010 5:57 pmin Washington, a congressional panel heard a pessimistic assessment of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government, or TFG.
The House Subcommittee on Africa took testimony from several witnesses Thursday, including Ken Menkhaus, political science professor at Davidson College in North Carolina.
“Our policy in Somalia has been framed for several years by support to the Transitional Federal Government,” he says.
“That has never been a policy that has been embraced, because it was seen as having high promise, but because it was always seen as the best of bad options. The bad news…is that the TFG is no longer the best of bad options. It’s simply a bad option.”
He describes the government as being in “disarray” and “an enormous disappointment,’ despite millions of dollars in support.
“Most of its members have resigned or reside outside the country. It controls only a few districts of the capital that are in fact secured by African Union peacekeepers. It has been notorious for corruption. Its security forces have been a law unto themselves,” he says.
Unwilling and unable
Professor Menkhaus says, “The fundamental problem…is not that it is weak. If it were only weak, state capacity building assistance would be the cure. This is not a case of a government that is willing, but not able. This is a case of a government that is neither willing nor able.”
He says Somalia’s “top political elites” are using the TFG to make money “without taking the risks or the hard work of actually reviving the failed state.”
Al-Shabaab
The poor state of the TFG, he says, has allowed the al-Shabaab militia to expand its control over much of the country, despite its own weaknesses.
“Shabaab is not strong. It has numerous internal divisions. But it’s the only player on the playing field. And so it’s strong mainly as a function of the TFG’s weakness. Many observers believe that …there can be defections [in Shabaab]. There are large groups within Shabaab that are not really committed to hard core Jihadism,” he says.
However, unless there’s a viable alternative to Shabaab, fighters are unlikely to defect.
“So the population is acting in a predictably risk adverse manner, supporting tacitly or acquiescing to Shabaab control,” he says.
Policy shift
“The time is right for a policy shift. I would argue that for starters, we need to look at a diversification strategy, not to decertify the Transitional Federal Government, but to demote it to a transitional authority tasked strictly with implementing key transitional tasks in this government,” he says.
Menkhaus recommends “engaging any legitimate, powerful and effective authorities that we find at the sub-national level.”
He says they should be “effective to create some competition for good governance in Somalia, to put pressure on the TFG, and to end its monopoly of access to external assistance.”
The conflict in Somalia has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters with hundreds of thousands of displaced people needing emergency aid.
Joe DeCapua voa
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Somalian_Boqor wrote:James Dahl, What is the TFG? Who or what lands does it rule? Forget the rest of the country what influence does it have in Mogadishu? It is an utter embarrassment to the west that a government they support, can only be measured within the 5,000 AU troops they have provided, and fund and the total control of 4km of an entire country! The alternative is with those different political foundations that control the bulk of the land and population.James Dahl wrote:The TFG is the only alternative to the rule of al-Shabab in the south, a prospect that most governments in the world do not cherish the thought of.
They have no choice but to support the TFG, the alternative is, in their estimation, far worse.
The TFG can not be compared to Al-Shabaab an actual working system, who have an iron grip on the whole south and majority of the capital. You talk as if the TFG is a powerful entity or something! It has become a total failure and not worth supporting and a different alternative has to be found.
The TFG has International backing, and the 5,000 African Union troops is it's true evidence. The TFG as well has the backing of all International support conferences held on it's behalf around the world. The west has been clearly seeing the TFG as the only alternative to the rule of Al-Shabaab in the south, and was a clear prospect in their minds. But what are they suppose to do, when the TFG has become self-destructive and the puppet they put in charge is lacking all elements of leadership?
What more can the west do when the TFG leadership can not organize and take advantage of all the tools provided to them? The U.S Government publicly shipped tons of arms to the TFG, and once it got to Mogadishu it was being sold in the open gun market. The west is funding all elements of the administration works of the TFG, and millions of dollars are going missing right at the top of the government hierarchy. Thousands of troops have been trained for them, but once they arrive in Mogadishu there is no leader to guide and direct them, nor any motivation beyond money which they never see, and switch sides for the sole purpose of revenge within months.
The only option, it seems this newly led self-destructive government of the incompetent Sheikh Sharif has left for it's care-taker the "West" is direct military intervention! But this is a route the west has been avoiding and will continue to do so specially knowing their past experience in combat in urban areas. The Super-Power, the good old U.S.A has being doing policing around the world previously, today they stuck in two wars which are close to a decade and on going, plus financial meltdown around the world in particular the west that has been hard hit.
In conclusion, the West will continue to stay in engaged to monitor the situation, but I assure you an alternative is in the works. That does not include this current TFG leadership, nor a direct military intervention by the west.
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