Do you see a peaceful Somalia.

[juzme123]

There are 20yr olds in south Somalia who have only ever known war and choas. They are the children of anarchy and the next generation of people to have children and inhabit those areas.

So what hope is there for Somalia?

On the political side of things you have people from the diapora coming and going every few years when they have attempted, and failed, to impose their vision of the "country" on the people, leaving the country in a worse sitation than it was previously. Currently there is the Nth "Transitional" government. There are countless of external and internal players active and involved. There is rampant poverty, displacement, disease and underdevelopment.

This seems like one hell of a dangerous cocktail. For 20 years (nearly a quarter of a century) the situation has been as it is and as time goes by it only gets worse.

So my question is where is this all going. What do you think is going to happen in the next 1/2/5/10 years. Will Somalia ever emerge from the abyss it calls home?

[Kukri]

Not anytime soon. Somalia doesnt want peace as they are enjoying the anarchy and lawlessness.

Not untill Habar guidir iyo Majeerten Soomali laga saaro oo bada lagu shubo

Then and only then will there be peace.

[Cirwaaq]

There are 20yr olds in south Somalia who have only ever known war and choas. They are the children of anarchy and the next generation of people to have children and inhabit those areas.

So what hope is there for Somalia?

On the political side of things you have people from the diapora coming and going every few years when they have attempted, and failed, to impose their vision of the "country" on the people, leaving the country in a worse sitation than it was previously. Currently there is the Nth "Transitional" government. There are countless of external and internal players active and involved. There is rampant poverty, displacement, disease and underdevelopment.

This seems like one hell of a dangerous cocktail. For 20 years (nearly a quarter of a century) the situation has been as it is and as time goes by it only gets worse.

So my question is where is this all going. What do you think is going to happen in the next 1/2/5/10 years. Will Somalia ever emerge from the abyss it calls home?

On an optimistic level the choas we witness is concentrated in the Seat of power moqadishu, everywhere else has experienced a Relative level of peace even if those claiming authority have changed from time to time. It is easy to assume koonfur is a total loss purely on the basis that there is constant power struggle for moqadishu(Capital). Perfect Examples are the regions of Puntland and Galmudug, witness despite the constant piracy, the assassinations and a host of other crimes and instability in those regions their respective Capitals maintain relative peace. Another example Somaliland even when you have conflicts in SSC so long as Hargiesa is stable relatively the world will see peace.

What is the difference between the uprising in Egypt+Tunisia as compared to Libya?

Gadaffi has Control over his capital, if the WEST allows he has a higher chance of survining this uprising.

Stabilise moqadishu and the world will see a relatively stable country regardless of 90% of Somalia being under Shabab control.

On the Issue of change as 60% - 75% of the population is under 20yrs old, we are nomads, we have always had warrior blood with the exception of our peacefull Saab brothers the Rahanweyn and a few others. It will be hard but with the right leadership things can be turned around in a few years. Example: Somalis that are coming out of the war zone and adapting to life in the fast paced Western world. We are a very resilient people and coupled with our ablitly to adapt with ease you would be surprised how quickly things would turn around.

The underlying issue goes beyond Peace as far as the somali condition is concerned. Without a form of reliable income any somali in any town and in any year is a threat to social cohesion and state security.

[juzme123]

We will have to see but I don't think there will be peace anytime soon. The TFG is not strong enough to defeat A.S. A.S is not strong enough to defeat TFG+AMISOM.

The mandate of the TFG is running out. What will happen come august?

[zidane88]

No peace in sight,May ALLAH have mercy on us.

[Cirwaaq]

Peace is a relative qualitative measure. Those who have never had it don't complain of lack of it. Peace is what ever the population make it.

[Monsieur]

LOL i think i have seen about 1000 threads about this. NO, somalia will never be peaceful, for a long, long time. The Somali people deserve an earthquake, a huge disaster that will kill millions of them, and then i think they might wake up.