Absolutely top-notch analysis of the events by Stratfor. It seems like it was the Jubaland troops with aircover provided by Kenya that captured Baardheere. According to its sources, Ethiopian troops and SNA were slowed down enough in Bay, it gave Jubaland troops the oppoortunity to take Baardheere. It is a lie that SNA or the Ethiopian army had any role in capturing Baardheere. It seems that Amisom is finally serious about taking on Alshabab after the EU threatened to cut their funding down.
The most important quote from the analysis:
Early in July, approximately 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers, part of the AMISOM contingent, crossed into Somalia near Dolow. Bolstered by Somali National Army units, the sizable force advanced in the direction of Buurdhuubo and the Somali town of Baidoa. Meanwhile, forces controlled by the local Jubaland administration launched a separate offensive. This thrust marched on the city of Baardheere from a separate direction.
The Ethiopian offensive continues — with the intent of clearing al Shabaab from villages in the Bay and Gedo regions — but the advance toward Baardheere has slowed. On the road from Baidoa, an al Shabaab suicide car bomb hit Ethiopian forces, inflicting an unknown number of casualties and temporarily stalling their advance. Kenyan soldiers and fighters from the officially unrecognized region of Jubaland reportedly took control of Baardheere, while Ethiopian forces and Somali National Army units were still moving on Dinsoor, another al Shabaab stronghold.
The local Jubaland administration with its seat of power in Kismayo has a troubled relationship with Mogadishu, only reluctantly accepting its federal authority. In the absence of an effective security strategy from Mogadishu, neighboring Kenya has taken to backing Jubaland air assets and ground forces. Beefing up the Jubaland elements along the Kenyan border is a viable way to protect Kenya from spillover effects from the Somali conflict. However, Jubaland has begun to compete with Ethiopian forces: Jubaland's offensive operations were likely meant to establish control over Baardheere before Ethiopia's contingent could arrive there. Despite the competition, the dual thrusts overwhelmed al Shabaab's defensive resources in and around Baardheere, leading to the city's fall to Jubaland forces. The rivalry is unlikely to lead to direct confrontations between the two sides, but it could manifest in a race to liberate surrounding areas.
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/somal ... al-shabaab
