Darod power sharing in Somalia

[MrSinister]

One of the main reasons failmajo and marexaan dislike federalism is they feel disenfranchised by the current system and hence the need to go back to kacaan era and dictatorship. They are probably the only major clans in Somalia (Harti, Sade, Absame, Hawiye, Dir and D&M) that does not benefit from federalism. In order to remedy this, Darood under 4.5 should agree to share among themselves.

Here is what I propose:

State Level

Puntland-Harti
Jubbaland- Rotation of presidency/vp positions between OG and MX

Federal Level- Rotation of Presidency/PM between Puntland and Jubbaland. If OG have the presidency in Jubbaland, the federal post goes to MX. Every 4 years, there is a rotation between Puntland and Jubbaland at the federal level. When Puntland has the presidency/PM position at the federal level, then Harti will give up mayorship of Kismaayo.

I think that is a fair system. Thoughts?

[Nomand]

No I do not agree. For starters ogadeen are a minority. They are only relevant because of kenya.

If darod has to share by 3 then it would be dh, mx and mj. I would put warsangali and leelkase above og in somalia.

Would mj rotate with dhulbahante in puntland. Because dhulbahante have more population and land then ogadeen in somalia.

Dhulbahante make up more of puntland population then ogaden do in jubbaland.

[GuleedWarsame]

We dont have federalism in Somalia so I dont see the point of this thread. There is foreign backed confederalism in Somalia and it must be dismantled at all cost.

[MrSinister]

No I do not agree. For starters ogadeen are a minority. They are only relevant because of kenya.

If darod has to share by 3 then it would be dh, mx and mj. I would put warsangali and leelkase above og in somalia.

Would mj rotate with dhulbahante in puntland. Because dhulbahante have more population and land then ogadeen in somalia.

Dhulbahante make up more of puntland population then ogaden do in jubbaland.

If Dhulbahante controlled more of their land then they could make the case to seek puntland presidency. Majority are happy with VP position.

You’re not being rationale when it comes to Jubbaland. Not sure what you base your statement that OG are a minority. Even if you say historically they were a minority, they have been migrating to the jubbas in large numbers. Convincing them to share power with you will not be easy. They currently have no incentive to do so as they control Jubbaland.

[MrSinister]

We dont have federalism in Somalia so I dont see the point of this thread. There is foreign backed confederalism in Somalia and it must be dismantled at all cost.

Farmajo tried this and was roundly rejected and militarily defeated. Federalism is the law of the land. Dismantling it is dismantling the peace and stability Somalis have worked very hard to achieve. Our focus should now be in development and defeating alshabab rather than arguing about the constitution.

[BigBreak]

Well I could say that Italian Somalia should either adopt UAE style clan confederalism or it should be a unitary state under perpetual Hawiye rule

[GuleedWarsame]

Farmajo tried this and was roundly rejected and militarily defeated. Federalism is the law of the land. Dismantling it is dismantling the peace and stability Somalis have worked very hard to achieve. Our focus should now be in development and defeating alshabab rather than arguing about the constitution.

Law of the land without Somali people having say on it? Put it on referendum first then we can talk about law of the land. As for President Farmaajo he didnt do such thing. At most one can accuse him of using the states to make a comeback a second time. (Con)federalism is weak in Somalia and most somalis cant even define it because it means different thing to different people and its a vehicle for foreign states to influence Somalia.

[Nomand]

No I do not agree. For starters ogadeen are a minority. They are only relevant because of kenya.

If darod has to share by 3 then it would be dh, mx and mj. I would put warsangali and leelkase above og in somalia.

Would mj rotate with dhulbahante in puntland. Because dhulbahante have more population and land then ogadeen in somalia.

Dhulbahante make up more of puntland population then ogaden do in jubbaland.

If Dhulbahante controlled more of their land then they could make the case to seek puntland presidency. Majority are happy with VP position.

You’re not being rationale when it comes to Jubbaland. Not sure what you base your statement that OG are a minority. Even if you say historically they were a minority, they have been migrating to the jubbas in large numbers. Convincing them to share power with you will not be easy. They currently have no incentive to do so as they control Jubbaland.

What was ogadeen before amisom? Look there are a lot of clans which have benefited from amisom.

For example pre amisom abgaal only controlled a fraction of mogadishu. And outside of mogadishu they had no influence.

Xawaadle where fighting over controlling a few xaafads in beledweeyne. There where red lines everywhere.

Ogadeen again what do they bring to the table? Afmadow district?. Afmadow district is shared by many clans including marehan who have villages.

When amisom leaves somalia, you will find a lot of things will change.

[MrSinister]

Guleed and Bigbreak

This topic is not a debate about federalism vs another system. That debate has ended and federalism, even with its own issues has won. There is no need for a referendum as representatives from each of the regions agreed to a federal system. There was no referendum on the us constitution but it’s law of the land in the US.

The reality is Somali’s are tribal society and unitary system will not work. Look at successful states in Somalia such as Puntland and Somaliland. They are stable largely because they got the tribal formula correct.

The other states are still fragile but all recognize that federalism works in Somalia. My question is centred specifically on Jubbaland and how to create a formula that works for the majority of the inhabitants there.

[Khalid Ali]

No I do not agree. For starters ogadeen are a minority. They are only relevant because of kenya.

If darod has to share by 3 then it would be dh, mx and mj. I would put warsangali and leelkase above og in somalia.

Would mj rotate with dhulbahante in puntland. Because dhulbahante have more population and land then ogadeen in somalia.

Dhulbahante make up more of puntland population then ogaden do in jubbaland.

Currently there is not a single town city or district that belong to dhulbahante. Are in puntland hands. So how could they basically lead puntland or can have the presidency of puntland its like dm leading jubbaland. When there is no gobol in jubbaland that is dm. Apart from a district in gedo.

[Gubbet]

Strangely, I find myself NOT immediately resistant.

In fact, it is possible that an acceptable institutionalized powersharing system is potentially the most realistic solution to the Darod problem.

BEFORE 4.5 WAS ACCEPTED AS THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTION TO THE SOMALIA PROBLEM INSTITUTIONALIZING A NATIONAL POWERSHARING SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY----MAREHAN WAS (AND IS) THE ONLY CLAN THAT I AM AWARE OF THAT HAD AN ACTUAL "INSTITUIONALIZED CLAN POWERSHARING SYSTEM."

I am not even going to lie, I would not be surprised if even 4.5 conceptually is a rip off of the Marehan Clan powersharing system.

Do you know anything abojt this at a Sinister?

[SunFromNorth]

No I do not agree. For starters ogadeen are a minority. They are only relevant because of kenya.

If darod has to share by 3 then it would be dh, mx and mj. I would put warsangali and leelkase above og in somalia.

Would mj rotate with dhulbahante in puntland. Because dhulbahante have more population and land then ogadeen in somalia.

Dhulbahante make up more of puntland population then ogaden do in jubbaland.

Currently there is not a single town city or district that belong to dhulbahante. Are in puntland hands. So how could they basically lead puntland or can have the presidency of puntland its like dm leading jubbaland. When there is no gobol in jubbaland that is dm. Apart from a district in gedo.

Why is this Idoor in the internal affairs of Jeberti ?

[MrSinister]

Strangely, I find myself NOT immediately resistant.

In fact, it is possible that an acceptable institutionalized powersharing system is potentially the most realistic solution to the Darod problem.

BEFORE 4.5 WAS ACCEPTED AS THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTION TO THE SOMALIA PROBLEM INSTITUTIONALIZING A NATIONAL POWERSHARING SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY----MAREHAN WAS (AND IS) THE ONLY CLAN THAT I AM AWARE OF THAT HAD AN ACTUAL "INSTITUIONALIZED CLAN POWERSHARING SYSTEM."

I am not even going to lie, I would not be surprised if even 4.5 conceptually is a rip off of the Marehan Clan powersharing system.

Do you know anything abojt this at a Sinister?

No idea to be honest. Even in cases where it’s not institutionalized, there is certain understanding between tribes about power sharing. There is a misconception that Puntland is against farmaajo because he is MX. The truth is a MX in VS serves as a check and balance for Jubbaland problem.

[TarTar]

Well I could say that Italian Somalia should either adopt UAE style clan confederalism or it should be a unitary state under perpetual Hawiye rule

Budhcadland want full autonomy for themselves. Naw hold up. dey want complete independence n sovereignty. Then they want a share in controlling Hamar. They might realistically find some Hawiya idiot to codify it.

Remember some Hawiya idiot before Farmajo gave Dolbahanta seats to Pland

[Gubbet]

No Marehan has AN ACTUAL powersharing system that is not about "understanding." It means black and white like 4.5. There is no bargaining nor debate. It is codified in Xeer Marehan.

1. National powersharing between Marehan Mudug nd Msrehan Gedo

• Clean, no messy, equal division based on wholes is 1/3 for Mudug every 2/3 fo Gedo
  
  • If there are 3 seats for Marehan nationally, Mudug gets 1 and Gedo 2. If 6 seats, Mudug 2, Gedo 4. If 9 seats,Mudug 3, Gedo 6
  • Ratio is exactly 2:1 (2 M Gedo + 1 M Mudug = 3 Marehan Nationally)
  • The Senate perfectly captures this, Marehan has 3 Senate seats where Gedo took 2 and Mudug took 1).
• For any additional Marehan seat nationally that would not satisfy a clean, WHOLE division of 1/3, it is rounded UP as a reward to Gedo on a ratio of 2.5:1. Usually when Gedo reaches or is in excess of 70% of the total does Mudug receive the next addition
  • So since 4.5 started, of Marehan 14 MPs Gedo has owned 10 and Mudug 4.

And that's before we get to the Region specific power sharing knowm as "Xaal" im Gedo and "Afar Waaxood" in Mudug

It is actually coded. "Alderman" kind of political Constituency and IT IS NOT ENTIRELY BASED ON LINEAGE which is so radical for the Somali 4.5 system.