Could Said Deni lead anti HSM coalition in Somalia?

[Hulkujir]

No underestimated hsm.....we knew what he was all about.

We also knew a non hagite president would not be allowed to govern effectively.

Hsm wouldn't have been my 1st or even 2nd choice.
However, we are where we are........we have to make the best of a bad deal.

In the war against AS you are either with the government or with terrorists.......there is no middle way.

The President of the nation is in his home village standing between members of his own clan who are busy killing each other, meanwhile Alshabab are bombing buildings adjacent to Villa Somalia, no one could have predicted this.

I think everyone expected stagnation and not this rapid deterioration.

The sad part is its only going to get way worse, as the money in the national coffers left behind by Farmaajo run out.

[BigBreak]

Bye bye cagdheer

I guess xog I was told a while ago is now coming out to the public.

Indeed so Nomand. This fits nicely with my theory that Ethiopia may assemble a nationwide coalition of anti HSM actors eg Gedo, Southwest and Puntland to perhaps form a new parallel set of federal authorities in a new capital city eg Gaalkacyo

[OwQariib]

Bye bye cagdheer

I guess xog I was told a while ago is now coming out to the public.

Indeed so Nomand. This fits nicely with my theory that Ethiopia may assemble a nationwide coalition of anti HSM actors eg Gedo, Southwest and Puntland to perhaps form a new parallel set of federal authorities in a new capital city eg Gaalkacyo

You hang around with too many Darods no offense. In Gods green earth you are thinking the capital will move to Gaalkacyo, meesha malaa'ikta ay necebyihiin they all told us the elections waxay u xirantahay Deni and Farmaajo and we nearly believed it after 1 round of votes yet HSM still won. You and the noer fella were confident of a Farmaajo victory when he was in power and now you think Ethiopia will stop HSM. Iska hadloow ina igarre, i will come back in a few weeks and Darods and Isaaqs will still be yapping lies to themselves here.

[OwQariib]

HSM has let Deni get on with PL without disturbing any progress. But he has little time left in his term until next PL leader comes, it's going to be very difficult for him to participate in the next SFG election without PL backing. Farmaajo's propaganda actually united the opposition and as HSM is better at co-opting his rivals that is likely to weaken a loyal opposition as it would have to unite many clans to break the HIraab/HAG jeegaan. But like every other President he will fuck up somewhere down the road and lose supporters over time. It will depend on someone charismatic to capture the momentum but even that is a stretch, everyone wants progress over a new face - too many presidencies, elections and extensions encourages systemic mediocrity where politicians cannot be big thinkers working simply to collect funds until their term ends.

[BigBreak]

OQ

Are you denying that HSM isn't a HAGist who controls only HAG parts of Somalia? Isn't Ethiopia pissed off with Hassan Sheikh?

I'm just connecting the dots

[OwQariib]

OQ

Are you denying that HSM isn't a HAGist who controls only HAG parts of Somalia? Isn't Ethiopia pissed off with Hassan Sheikh?

I'm just connecting the dots

Ethiopia is not pissed off with HSM, sure they might be slightly annoyed they don't have a loyal partner like Farmaajo but they are worried about their own future. If by HAG you mean the Gareen states well he doesn't control much federal territory because of AS but he has his biggest support base among his clansmen. I don't see the problem as every tribe support their man in the Villa. The parliament and senate has a 4.5 voting system, for any candidate with money and networks, anyone can do the maths on what is required to win an election. My only concern is seeing Somalia progress. We will be known as a third rate developing World country of corruption, terrorism or piracy for a long time but we can work on achieving KPI's to reduce this.

[noer]

HSM has let Deni get on with PL without disturbing any progress. But he has little time left in his term until next PL leader comes, it's going to be very difficult for him to participate in the next SFG election without PL backing. Farmaajo's propaganda actually united the opposition and as HSM is better at co-opting his rivals that is likely to weaken a loyal opposition as it would have to unite many clans to break the HIraab/HAG jeegaan. But like every other President he will fuck up somewhere down the road and lose supporters over time. It will depend on someone charismatic to capture the momentum but even that is a stretch, everyone wants progress over a new face - too many presidencies, elections and extensions encourages systemic mediocrity where politicians cannot be big thinkers working simply to collect funds until their term ends.

they bin backing the losing candidate. everytime except embegati. me tink governor farole's cousin gonna become next governor of magertenland. i hope they don't continue tradition. stealth secessionism leaving them witout allies in the ex italian colony. guaranteeing that their candidate loses