Are there a lot of Ethiopian tanks in Xamar?

[Shirib]

Twisted Logic

Are our friends in northern Mogadishu gonna start fighting again collectively.

Last time they did that, last March/April, the injiirleey couldn't get a street, they were being fought everywhere.

Your guys's Imaam was spokesperson, I forgot his name, but then they stopped fighting, totally just stopped the fight, and the little resistance left was crushed. I didn't understand what happened wanna shed light on it.

[KlashneFolk]

Twisted Logic

Are our friends in northern Mogadishu gonna start fighting again collectively.

Last time they did that, last March/April, the injiirleey couldn't get a street, they were being fought everywhere.

Your guys's Imaam was spokesperson, I forgot his name, but then they stopped fighting, totally just stopped the fight, and the little resistance left was crushed. I didn't understand what happened wanna shed light on it.

That's a good question. In my view, they are slowly moving from a position of ambiguity to a more active role. If you notice what is going in the Middle Shabelle Valley, you will see that Mudulood are joining the effort in big numbers, in fact some of the biggest commanders of the ICU are Abgaal men like Moalin Xashi and others. The public support to the ICU was always there, don't look further than the latest situation in Jowhar and Balcad where the TFG forces were chased out on each occasion without any fire-fight and the ICU being welcomed to those cities with celebrations. Even in Xamar, the North has always been active, just today a bomb went off in Suuq Bacad targeting the TFG troops.

But one thing is for sure. For any resistance movement to be effective, a competent leadership has to be in place. Only then, can you mobilize and deter the aggression effectively. The sad reality in Somalia is that no clan is united to fight the Ethiopians and their TFG creation completely driven by nationalists sentiments. almost every-one is looking out for their clan interest. Still that is not a excuse for the sad reality in Somalia today. I am certain that the momentum will shift against the Ethiopians and the TFG pretty soon if it hasn't already shifted.

[KlashneFolk]

There are atleast 14,000 Ethio-parasites in Mogadishu alone for fact

Source? My understanding is US spy satellites and pilotless drones are helping the parasites.

14,000 is a very decent number. There is only so much UAVs and spy sats can do. Ethiopian policy relies on human shock and awe. They rely on numbers to overwhelm their opposition look at their Eritrean misadventure for example in 1998/99 for example. They lost at least 120,000 ( yes 120 thousand) yet that didn't deter them completely and why should it, when the majority of the foot-soldiers are somalis, oromos and Southern tribes?

[Shirib]

Okay since this has been moved now I can really talk.

Last April, what happened, Abgaal just stopped fighting, when they were fighting, the Ethiopians were gettin burned alive and what not. Had a hard time capturing a single street and the Abgaal Imam was the spokesperson.

But then Abgaal stopped fighting. Why did they stop fighting, it didn't look like they were crushed but rather just stopped. Looked like they struck a deal with Gheedi, and decided to stop. Is this what happened, or something else.

Again last October after a series of meeting Gheedi goes Shacabka Muqdisho should fight the TFG, and after that some of the heaviest fighting breaks out, as a large amoun of Abgaal join the war. This time it looks like a defeat as the Ethiopians just start shelling the entire place, after they take heavy losses.

So can u shed some light on firstly the events of last April, and what happened and then in October.

It looks like when Abgaal are in the fight in large numbers, the Ethiopians can't move, the only thnig they do is start shelling everything killing innocent civillians.

[eternauta]

(Ethiopian T-55 tank in Mogadishu)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-55

[KlashneFolk]

Okay since this has been moved now I can really talk.

Last April, what happened, Abgaal just stopped fighting, when they were fighting, the Ethiopians were gettin burned alive and what not. Had a hard time capturing a single street and the Abgaal Imam was the spokesperson.

But then Abgaal stopped fighting. Why did they stop fighting, it didn't look like they were crushed but rather just stopped. Looked like they struck a deal with Gheedi, and decided to stop. Is this what happened, or something else.

Again last October after a series of meeting Gheedi goes Shacabka Muqdisho should fight the TFG, and after that some of the heaviest fighting breaks out, as a large amoun of Abgaal join the war. This time it looks like a defeat as the Ethiopians just start shelling the entire place, after they take heavy losses.

So can u shed some light on firstly the events of last April, and what happened and then in October.

It looks like when Abgaal are in the fight in large numbers, the Ethiopians can't move, the only thnig they do is start shelling everything killing innocent civillians.

The April fighting coincided with inter-Warsengali strife between the pro-Ghedi subclans and the pro-Xaji Abukor Cadan subclans and the Wacesley bussiness class attempts to defend their assets in Towfiiq and Suuq Bacad. That is why the resistance broke off so quickly because a deal has been struck behind the curtains.

The October skrimishes which started after Ghedi's pleas was meant to doom from the beginning because it depended entirely on Ghedi's political lifeline/ambitions.

So, in sum, a true resistan can only happen if a common consensus exists.

[Shirib]

So what do u think will make people come together to fight. Are there any bargaining chips, or is it so long as they aren't harming my intrests, I'm not fighting.

[KlashneFolk]

So what do u think will make people come together to fight. Are there any bargaining chips, or is it so long as they aren't harming my intrests, I'm not fighting.

I think for that to happen (again if it hasn't already happened) people would have to decide that finishing off this dying TFG is a necessary step towards the ultimate stabilization of Somalia. In addition, the TFG's best days are behind it ( if it ever had some ) and the regular defeat/humiliation of the TFG is a case in point. Also, the resistance movement should/have already regrouped and I think this has allowed to redraw their battle-plans and study Ethio=parasite's weak/vulnerable underbelly. Already, Buale, Abudwaq, Bulo Burte, Jowhar, Baletwayne, Balcad have fallen to the ICU on more than one occasion. The ultimate strategy against the Ethio-parasites and its TFG creation/condom should be to hit them hard to the point that the loss both in human/financial loss scale is greater than any gain they can salvage. This can only be accomplished if the fight is taken to them. In my mind nothing other than diplomatic victory can accomplished by capturing cities and towns only to leave them later.