Somaliland Vs Somalia talks on Feburary a loose Union.

[SultanOrder]

What choice did Somaliland ever have? There was no recognition on it's way, Somalia through heavy international support has been resusicated and is rebuilding and recovering from a long and ardous civil war. Countries have begun to restore their relations with the government in Xamar at the first sign of progress, though we still lack the infrastructure and function of any viable state. I think it's too altogether clear what the intentions of the international community was in regard to the situation of Somaliland. Somaliland now has to recognize it's position and not let hardliners dictate their policy and miss other opportunities.

"Recognition", has been such a rally cry to unify Isaaq and really keep them in line, I wonder what will be the outcome when it dawns on them that it is not coming? I suspect that each clan will start to look to its interests and advance it as much as it can, even to the detriment of others. I also think that those in power (kulmiye) knowing how crucial the next few years in terms of Somaliland's relationship with Somalia will be, will not let go of the reigns of power too easily. Hoping to benefit (private interests) from any outcome. This also reminds of the Habar Yonis meeting in Erigaavo? where they as a beel wanted to be included in any talks with Somalia, which ofcourse is interesting when they have a representative government, unless they saw the government as another beel (habar awal/Habar jeclo) not pursuing their interests. Also, taking into account the recent local elections, the fissures are already showing. I guess it already dawned on them.

[gurey25]

you are misjudging isaaq psychology, from an outside perspective your analysis would seem accurate, but the reality is different.
That the clans are disunited and acting independently is a sigh of their self confidence.
Nobody sees somalia as a threat, and therefore nobody sees a need to rally behind the wagons so to speak.

In short habaryunis, habar jeclo, habar awal all the isaaq clans still look down on somalia, are not threatened and are more interested in local power struggles.

[SultanOrder]

you are misjudging isaaq psychology, from an outside perspective your analysis would seem accurate, but the reality is different.
That the clans are disunited and acting independently is a sigh of their self confidence.
Nobody sees somalia as a threat, and therefore nobody sees a need to rally behind the wagons so to speak.

In short habaryunis, habar jeclo, habar awal all the isaaq clans still look down on somalia, are not threatened and are more interested in local power struggles.

Gurey, all politics is local, and I think that has been the problem for Somali's in particular. Somaliland made great achievements when they were united. When somalis are not united, they don't play fair.

Honestly, no one sees somalia as a threat, because there isn't really a Somalia. So I don't really see what there is to be threatened off, as the only people interested with Isaaq are those who have direct contact and/or conflict with them. Just the same way Abgal, Habar gidir, Marexaan, Ogaden, Rahanwayne don't see Somaliland as a threat or even register on their radars, and are more interested in local power struggles.

But nevertheless, you may see disunity as a good thing, but it has it's negatives, and it can turn sour real quick.

[grandpakhalif]

I dont think even a loose union would work.. the isaaq have a deeprooted hatred and are extremely xenophobic about any thing Somalia-related..God knows how much trauma the late regime inflicted on them too still harbour hatred against Xamar and its ruler.

[original dervish]

What other option do they have. other than to re-engage with Xamar?

[Rightwing]

It became clear to the world that somaliland postion is vital. The most expensive thing you will ever have is the self determination. We can have all kind of co-operation with our borthers Somalia....you name it .....but we must never cede control of our motherland.

Case close!
Le justicier
RW

[original dervish]

[GeoSeven]

An asymetrical confederation or a loose union is fine for now, but it will be treason if the siilanyo government does not negotiate an exit strategy.
They cannot hide this .

Gurey you have analysed the situation well without emotion. The only thing left for Somaliland to do and concentrate on is maneuvering the agreement of union to whatever makes them happy. Laakinse seeking ictiraaf will only keep it hijacked. An international agreement with maybe a referendum at some point monitored by the international community is the best course of action for Somaliland. The only problem is, if it comes to some sort of agreement on union being reached, how will these politicians who have been parading the ictiraaf agenda for their personal gain convince the people that they just might have to stick around with Somalia? Hate to be the leader of Somaliland at that time.

[FAH1223]

What happened in Washington DC this week was very telling. The US Embassy will be back in Xamar and there will be a flood gate of the international community coming back.

Somaliland really has one option and that is to re-engage with the South. I don't think there's going to be any illusions of unity but there will have to be an interim solution because Somaliland isn't just going to sit on the sidelines especially if the positive progressions keep being made and Somalia starts to get its shid together.

The only road to recognition is through Xamar. And Xamar was just recognized by the US this week for the first time sine 1991.

[original dervish]

nuff said

[Xiis1928]

What happened in Washington DC this week was very telling. The US Embassy will be back in Xamar and there will be a flood gate of the international community coming back.

Somaliland really has one option and that is to re-engage with the South. I don't think there's going to be any illusions of unity but there will have to be an interim solution because Somaliland isn't just going to sit on the sidelines especially if the positive progressions keep being made and Somalia starts to get its shid together.

The only road to recognition is through Xamar. And Xamar was just recognized by the US this week for the first time sine 1991.

We have been waiting for Xamar to be recognized so we can negotiate with a legitimate government. Hassan Sheikh's next step is for him to consolidate his power. The end of maamul gobaleed. No more divided cities like Galkacyo and Hobyo.

The best interest for both sides is to end the union. Hassan Sheikh and his administration know that is their best option.

[AhlulbaytSoldier]

What happened in Washington DC this week was very telling. The US Embassy will be back in Xamar and there will be a flood gate of the international community coming back.

Somaliland really has one option and that is to re-engage with the South. I don't think there's going to be any illusions of unity but there will have to be an interim solution because Somaliland isn't just going to sit on the sidelines especially if the positive progressions keep being made and Somalia starts to get its shid together.

The only road to recognition is through Xamar. And Xamar was just recognized by the US this week for the first time sine 1991.

We have been waiting for Xamar to be recognized so we can negotiate with a legitimate government. Hassan Sheikh's next step is for him to consolidate his power. The end of maamul gobaleed. No more divided cities like Galkacyo and Hobyo.

The best interest for both sides is to end the union. Hassan Sheikh and his administration know that is their best option.

Xiismuruq i dont know which hassan you talked to but the real Hassan is unionist,just like Jawaari and PM.
They believe that unity is in our best interest.

[Siciid85]

Loose union is another word for federalism, not going to work.


Some of are you are reading too much into the outcomes that doesn't apply to us. Only number 6 of the London February 2012 conference concerns us.
It acknowledged Somaliland and the Somalia government as different and the need to clarify our future relations (separation or union). So next time
the Somaliland committee in the talks with Somalia should focus on the real issue forget about the rest it doesn't apply to us but places that consider
themselves as part of Somalia like Puntland and Galmudug. There will be no "iskashi" between Somaliland and Somalia before the real issues are sorted.
The elephant in the room can't be ignored. If Somalia tries to bring up things that does not concern us in this upcoming talks and try to waste time,
the talks should be terminated.

6. The Conference recognized the need for the international community to support any dialogue that Somaliland and the TFG or its replacement may agree
to establish in order to clarify their future relations.

http://ukinsomalia.fco.gov.uk/en/news/? ... =727627582

[Xiis1928]

Loose union is another word for federalism, not going to work.


Some of are you are reading too much into the outcomes that doesn't apply to us. Only number 6 of the London February 2012 conference concerns us.
It acknowledged Somaliland and the Somalia government as different and the need to clarify our future relations (separation or union). So next time
the Somaliland committee in the talks with Somalia should focus on the real issue forget about the rest it doesn't apply to us but places that consider
themselves as part of Somalia like Puntland and Galmudug. There will be no "iskashi" between Somaliland and Somalia before the real issues are sorted.
The elephant in the room can't be ignored. If Somalia tries to bring up things that does not concern us in this upcoming talks and try to waste time,
the talks should be terminated.

6. The Conference recognized the need for the international community to support any dialogue that Somaliland and the TFG or its replacement may agree
to establish in order to clarify their future relations.

http://ukinsomalia.fco.gov.uk/en/news/? ... =727627582

[original dervish]

What we are witnessing is the death of secessionism.