New federal state

[Somali-Transporter]

All hints are indicating that Gobolloda dhexe including Hiiraan will create a federal state!

Nb; let's not be naïve into believing that President Hassan has any power!,... Everyone including IC know Guleed has the real power in this DFS, and what Guleed wants is clear and that is to help his HG, Ceyr to maintain control on S/hoose and Sacad to establish as head to the new federal state at any cost including throwing hiiraan under the bus!

Kana lalaland inuu ku noolyahay ayaa umooda. Guuleed waa tuug tuug dhalay, maanta hg ayuu isku keeni layahay adiguna siyaasad kal biixin ayaad ka hadli, Faqash inaad tahay sida ku ogow

Armaan? what are you fighting for or what are the demands of dir-ta/suure/biyomal in sh. hoose?

[Rabshoole]

All hints are indicating that Gobolloda dhexe including Hiiraan will create a federal state!

Nb; let's not be naïve into believing that President Hassan has any power!,... Everyone including IC know Guleed has the real power in this DFS, and what Guleed wants is clear and that is to help his HG, Ceyr to maintain control on S/hoose and Sacad to establish as head to the new federal state at any cost including throwing hiiraan under the bus!

Kana lalaland inuu ku noolyahay ayaa umooda. Guuleed waa tuug tuug dhalay, maanta hg ayuu isku keeni layahay adiguna siyaasad kal biixin ayaad ka hadli, Faqash inaad tahay sida ku ogow

Armaan? what are you fighting or what are the demands of dir-ta/suure/biyomal in sh. hoose?

Sheegaato uma jawaabi, go ahead and sign back in with Evens

[Somali-Transporter]

what is your new digil affiars... why do you wanna join them of all ppl.. i have seen you promoting the ''lixda gobool waa muqadis'' slogan? stop with this shiit sheegato and sheeko ciyaal ciyaal.. speak your mind.

I am also from Sh. Hoose and your policy are not healthy even towards me and the others on the region except digil.. why do you follow digil everywhere..

you will have your rights if you relax

[GIJaamac]

I am also from Sh. Hoose and your policy are not healthy even towards me

Dulliga been badanaa

[Somali-Transporter]

Look for me in Qoryooley and marka.. and we have our own heavy armed militias in Qoryoleey, which is a large city by population..

[James Dahl]

I think the Ujejeen guys would love to be in a pan-Mudulood state, but the Xawadle and Baadicadde guys would hate it and would probably prefer Hiiraan be its own thing. There is less of a threat to Xawadle and Baadicadde interests in a HG dominated state than one dominated by Abgaal, so I could see why they would be interested in this. One big administration including both Sh. Dhexe and Hiiraan and Galgaduud and south Mudug would be an interesting option though it seems like that isn't what is being discussed?

From a historical standpoint Benaadir belongs more with Sh. Hoose in a "Benaadir State", but really shouldn't Mogadishu be its own state? Like Berlin in the German federation.

Benadir and Sh. Hoose should really be together but their own state, since both are the most diverse states but their diversity is the most similar

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

I think the Ujejeen guys would love to be in a pan-Mudulood state, but the Xawadle and Baadicadde guys would hate it and would probably prefer Hiiraan be its own thing. There is less of a threat to Xawadle and Baadicadde interests in a HG dominated state than one dominated by Abgaal, so I could see why they would be interested in this. One big administration including both Sh. Dhexe and Hiiraan and Galgaduud and south Mudug would be an interesting option though it seems like that isn't what is being discussed?

From a historical standpoint Benaadir belongs more with Sh. Hoose in a "Benaadir State", but really shouldn't Mogadishu be its own state? Like Berlin in the German federation.

Benadir and Sh. Hoose should really be together but their own state, since both are the most diverse states but their diversity is the most similar

explain..

[James Dahl]

Isn't it obvious? If Hiiraan joins with say, Shabeele Dhexe and Benaadir and the district of Mareeg to form a "Pan-Abgaal" state, the state would be overwhelmingly dominated by Abgaal who would side with the Ujejeen in any disputes with Baadicaade or Xawaadle. If however they joined a state composed of southern Mudug and Galgaduud, Baadicaade and Xawaadle would be just two more clans in a state that would not even be majority Habar Gidir, they would merely be the biggest clan but the other clans would be stronger in aggregate. In the first scenario their interests would be shoved aside, whereas in the second scenario they would have far more influence and would be power brokers, possibly even a swing vote.

It's for precisely that reason that I think Hiiraan will be a political battle between the 'Pan Abgaal' vision of the Hiiraan-Sh.Dhexe-Benaadir state overwhelmingly dominated by Abgaal for Abgaal, and the 'pan-Central' vision of a more cosmopolitan state with many competing interests.

This situation is largely due to geography. Abgaal make up a large majority of the population in several gobols (Sh. Dhexe and Benadir) whereas Habar Gidir do not make up the majority in any, even though there are lots of Habar Gidir they are spread out, some in Sh. Hoose, some in Benaadir, many in southern Mudug and lots in Galgaduud, but even in Galgaduud even though they are the largest single clan, there are lots of Marexan, Murusade and Duduble and Abgaal and if they are the majority it is probably a slim majority. Habar Gidir have no choice but to work together with other clans to build a state, whereas Abgaal have the luxury of creating an Abgaal centric state.

Personally I think a pan central state including Hiiraan, Shabelle Dhexe, Galgaduud and southern Mudug is an excellent idea, it's the old Ajuuraan Empire brought back to life haha.

By the way, this region is the real Azania, or "Dar Ajam" It should be called Ajam State

[GIJaamac]

James dahl

Nice analysis, but you need little correction. HG are a majority both in Mudug and Galgaduud. Number-wise and land-wise . It's a fact.

[James Dahl]

Noone knows how many people live anywhere, there hasn't been an accurate census in 40 years.

[Even123]

Noone knows how many people live anywhere, there hasn't been an accurate census in 40 years.

Hey James Dahl, how would you see the census of the Somalia population in estimation, i'm sure its more than the never ending population of 10 Million!!!!

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Isn't it obvious? If Hiiraan joins with say, Shabeele Dhexe and Benaadir and the district of Mareeg to form a "Pan-Abgaal" state, the state would be overwhelmingly dominated by Abgaal who would side with the Ujejeen in any disputes with Baadicaade or Xawaadle. If however they joined a state composed of southern Mudug and Galgaduud, Baadicaade and Xawaadle would be just two more clans in a state that would not even be majority Habar Gidir, they would merely be the biggest clan but the other clans would be stronger in aggregate. In the first scenario their interests would be shoved aside, whereas in the second scenario they would have far more influence and would be power brokers, possibly even a swing vote.

It's for precisely that reason that I think Hiiraan will be a political battle between the 'Pan Abgaal' vision of the Hiiraan-Sh.Dhexe-Benaadir state overwhelmingly dominated by Abgaal for Abgaal, and the 'pan-Central' vision of a more cosmopolitan state with many competing interests.

This situation is largely due to geography. Abgaal make up a large majority of the population in several gobols (Sh. Dhexe and Benadir) whereas Habar Gidir do not make up the majority in any, even though there are lots of Habar Gidir they are spread out, some in Sh. Hoose, some in Benaadir, many in southern Mudug and lots in Galgaduud, but even in Galgaduud even though they are the largest single clan, there are lots of Marexan, Murusade and Duduble and Abgaal and if they are the majority it is probably a slim majority. Habar Gidir have no choice but to work together with other clans to build a state, whereas Abgaal have the luxury of creating an Abgaal centric state.

Personally I think a pan central state including Hiiraan, Shabelle Dhexe, Galgaduud and southern Mudug is an excellent idea, it's the old Ajuuraan Empire brought back to life haha.

By the way, this region is the real Azania, or "Dar Ajam" It should be called Ajam State

true but habar gidir have always supported gugundhabe tribes against xawaadles so i guess its the same thing . Nice analysis though

[James Dahl]

Noone knows how many people live anywhere, there hasn't been an accurate census in 40 years.

Hey James Dahl, how would you see the census of the Somalia population in estimation, i'm sure its more than the never ending population of 10 Million!!!!

It's really hard to say since it is virtually impossible to know how many people have moved internally from one gobol to another due to the civil wars, or how many people have left the country for Europe, America or other parts of Africa or the middle east. The first thing the new government should do once the war is over is an accurate census.

[hurdaayetoos]

I would love to see a real Somalia's population count. If you ask me from the places I have been hobyo gaallacyo to Mogadishu and barawe. I would say ceyr HG are far the Largest clan in Hawiye by head count . Lanwise From driving Dhuusomareeb to Matabaan in hiiraan every llittle town is so populated you can feel it but a real population count will prove me right or wrong.


The idea of HG let conference to include hiiraan is largely coming from ceyr since they live from dhuusomareeb of galgaduud to Matabaan of hiiraan whit no single other clan inside them Remember ceelbur is outwest

[AbtiiDoon]

Isn't it obvious? If Hiiraan joins with say, Shabeele Dhexe and Benaadir and the district of Mareeg to form a "Pan-Abgaal" state, the state would be overwhelmingly dominated by Abgaal who would side with the Ujejeen in any disputes with Baadicaade or Xawaadle. If however they joined a state composed of southern Mudug and Galgaduud, Baadicaade and Xawaadle would be just two more clans in a state that would not even be majority Habar Gidir, they would merely be the biggest clan but the other clans would be stronger in aggregate. In the first scenario their interests would be shoved aside, whereas in the second scenario they would have far more influence and would be power brokers, possibly even a swing vote.

It's for precisely that reason that I think Hiiraan will be a political battle between the 'Pan Abgaal' vision of the Hiiraan-Sh.Dhexe-Benaadir state overwhelmingly dominated by Abgaal for Abgaal, and the 'pan-Central' vision of a more cosmopolitan state with many competing interests.

This situation is largely due to geography. Abgaal make up a large majority of the population in several gobols (Sh. Dhexe and Benadir) whereas Habar Gidir do not make up the majority in any, even though there are lots of Habar Gidir they are spread out, some in Sh. Hoose, some in Benaadir, many in southern Mudug and lots in Galgaduud, but even in Galgaduud even though they are the largest single clan, there are lots of Marexan, Murusade and Duduble and Abgaal and if they are the majority it is probably a slim majority. Habar Gidir have no choice but to work together with other clans to build a state, whereas Abgaal have the luxury of creating an Abgaal centric state.

Personally I think a pan central state including Hiiraan, Shabelle Dhexe, Galgaduud and southern Mudug is an excellent idea, it's the old Ajuuraan Empire brought back to life haha.

By the way, this region is the real Azania, or "Dar Ajam" It should be called Ajam State

Good analysis