Somaliland and Somalia Will Never Unify

[SuldaanOfSanaag]

If you can let me post my honest opinion as a political analyst this is what likely to happen if SL doesn't get recognized

Also the world doesn't care of having democracy, just intrestsSLs claims/chances to get independence depend on two factors; having stability-some thing that south lacks- and different colonial history

It had its chances in these last 30 years but now the stability claim seems to be disappearing since not just mogadishu is recovering but the whole south-central region


The other factor-having different colonial history- has some obstacles

Yes its a region that has a different colonial history but its not agreed that its wholey a pro-secession region like south sudan, eritrea etc.

You have seen the international calls for forces to withdraw from the "disputed areas"-khatumo-

Sahal I total disagree with some of your analyst which is that Somaliland had the chance to be recognises in the last 20 years, Reason why you say that is they where peaceful and the south wasn't. In retrospectives the international community said if there's no government in the south, It be hard for somaliland to be recognised.

I agree with you in the international communtiy having a interest in somaliland for them to sought secession.

But the point I'm making is the north and south have to have a grown up attitude to the somaliland debate and if we ignore it, We will be making no progress. Even if the south offer a referendum it be a start but I doubt they will ever.

[sahal80]

No it had bc of ithe long stability but it may have been diplomatically dormant and busy with isues like stability and democracy

There was a time the west wasn't caring about somalia or had no agenda for somalia, if SL had secured regional recognition say ethiopia for example, the west would have followed

Instead it let ethiopia/IGAD get its way to revive somalia indirectly and pass this agenda-vision2016- to the west!

Hadn't worked on the arab world specially yemen and egypt, infact it made strategical errors towards yemen!

Didn't pressure on djibouti through its business, community, common culural roots/clan!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01096.html

State department is now dealing with somalia not the pentagon
http://www.somalicurrent.com/2014/06/28 ... n-somalia/

I believe silanyo to be the best in diplomacy though he's not in the right time but those before him were more onto security.

[BigBreak]

I believe that somaliland and djibouti should join a sovereign political union with ethiopia and somalia disintegrates and is sent to the dogs, a victory for us as official recognition is hard and we must resist the aggressive somaalism of southern looters so joining up with fellow anti soomaaliweynists ethiopia is logical

[GAMES]

LoL Qaldaans are weird bunch. It's always the samething with em. The never ending riwaayad.

Suldaan of Sanaag, majority rules sxb. A country of 13 million would not wait for some 2 or 3 million people who are all hopped on Khat.

And even if everyone gets tired of ur calaacal and constant crying and says let's give the Qaldaans their independence and we sign off on it, the rest of the world won't recognize you.

So you'd always be stuck with us. Dont become like the Kurds who've always been crying about Independence for generations and generations.

Dadkiina Dhinac Karaaca and stop playing victims all ur life.

[sahal80]

Do you know that marhoum cigaal was part of the somali reconciliation conferences such as carte and embaghati indirectly or has involved in them if not contributed to them a lot?

This says it all about the absence of diplomacy and grand strategy

He believed that its better for him to negotiate with any somali internationally recognized govt that these conferences will lead or was telling IGAD to settle first the southren part and he will be waiting their govt!

In this era all he needed was to find one country that recognizes him.

[lali99]

What a lot of people seem to not understanding are the rules of engagement when it comes to separation and unification two entitity. The only reason why SL couldn't get recognition all this time is that Somalia did not have an international recognize government. It was stated that in order to be recognize SL has to come to an understating with Somalia the same way with Eritrea and Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan. It is a stipulation in AU organization. Now that Somalia has a recognize government, thus a dialogue between Somalia and Somaliland has been established for them to come to an agreement. All these previous decades, Sl has been in a limbo political disaster that was Somalia and thus obstacle to his ambitions and rights. So it was not an error by the political elites that this recognition has not occur (insha Allah it will) but a contingency by the international agreements. Worse case scenario, Somaliland will thrive with or without Somalia acknowledgment the same way as Taiwan is against China. Somaliland Passport is accepted in a dozen countries right now and all the government needs to lobby to have a passport acceptance if recognition is out of the table right now. It is the key for business and economic growth and there is nothing that 6 millions Somalians could do to 4millions Somalilanders.

[TheblueNwhite]

Which countries recognize the SL passport? you said dozen.

[lali99]

UK, Beligium, France, Ethiopia, Djibouti, South Sudan, Kenya and South Africa accept Somaliland passport as a travel document to name a few so far. Insha Allah with a more pro-active in the next government, this number will swelled as Somaliland should focus having closer ties with central and western african countries.

[TheMailMan]

Even though I'm not a Somalilander, I wish you guys the best in whatever you achieve. And hopefully you build a fully functional society that will be a jewel in East Africa inshaAllah

[TheblueNwhite]

UK, Beligium, France, Ethiopia, Djibouti, South Sudan, Kenya and South Africa accept Somaliland passport as a travel document to name a few so far. Insha Allah with a more pro-active in the next government, this number will swelled as Somaliland should focus having closer ties with central and western african countries.

Please check the ministry of foreign affairs of the countries you listed above and see if the name "SL" is on its list.

[sahal80]

What a lot of people seem to not understanding are the rules of engagement when it comes to separation and unification two entitity. The only reason why SL couldn't get recognition all this time is that Somalia did not have an international recognize government. It was stated that in order to be recognize SL has to come to an understating with Somalia the same way with Eritrea and Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan. It is a stipulation in AU organization. Now that Somalia has a recognize government, thus a dialogue between Somalia and Somaliland has been established for them to come to an agreement. All these previous decades, Sl has been in a limbo political disaster that was Somalia and thus obstacle to his ambitions and rights. So it was not an error by the political elites that this recognition has not occur (insha Allah it will) but a contingency by the international agreements. Worse case scenario, Somaliland will thrive with or without Somalia acknowledgment the same way as Taiwan is against China. Somaliland Passport is accepted in a dozen countries right now and all the government needs to lobby to have a passport acceptance if recognition is out of the table right now. It is the key for business and economic growth and there is nothing that 6 millions Somalians could do to 4millions Somalilanders.

lolwrong!
In the eyes of the west/turkey, This has to do with reconciliations and statebuilding!

Some countries who were known as somalias international partners have given the mandate to the uk govt to look after somalias post-transitional era so the uk has hosted a conference on the furture govt-SFG- who should have a vision that implements the federalism and paves the way to general elections in the country

Uk has added SL to this agenda and asked the TFG to get ready for it but sharif has later changed it to turkey on the advise of the ala shaykhk intellectuals bc turkey is muslim country that's more affiliated with them or will not be under pressure

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_S ... Conference
"Somaliland agreed to enter into the talks during a February meeting in London, when 40 global leaders met to tackle piracy, terrorism and political instability in Somalia"

SL uses it as economic mechanism like the new deals separate arrangements wich was based on the ankara points

[GAMES]

Which countries recognize the SL passport? you said dozen.

They goto Xamar, Garoowe or the Somali embassy in Djibouti to get Somali passports.

2yrs ago, Culusoow offered to open an office in Hargeisa so the Qaldaans could get their passports before they went on Tahriib journey, but they refused. O'well, suit yourselves.

[TheblueNwhite]

I know.

[jalaaludin5]

The only argument and come back the south has is....You are not recognised by the international community.

Well...
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1. Somalia is not the international community.

2. Hell somalia is not even somalia unless muqdisho alone is the new somalia.

3. The only thing holding back somaliland recognition is not somalia (as they like to believe) but rather the west and their double standards and interest. I mean was South Sudan really in a better position than Somaliland when it wad recognised? Of course not.

In any case, somaliland destination is not something that is in the hand of Somalia nor will it have any meaningful influence in its future direction. Muqdisho might be seen as the "capital" of the old Somalia and Hassan Sheikh or any other sitting president can fool themselves into thinking they are the leaders of greater Somalia but that little phantasy is only in their head and maybe even on paper that does not reflect the reality on the ground.
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Cabdi iidan AUN said. ..this about jabuuti so maybe the south should do the same.


Afartaa dheh Deelleey
Dabray oo ka jeedladay
waxan uga danlee yahay
Dadka reer Jaboutee
Dawladnimada tooda ah
Cidna aan iskaga darin
Waa deris walaalkaya
Dugsi weeye gacalnimo
Anigu waan ku diirsaday
Lama dira-diraalayn
Ha daardaarin waa gobe
Aniguna ma diidani
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Now why is it so hard to say ALL THE BEST?

[sahal80]

Djiboutawi

All you said-the west- has nothing to do with the independence of south sudan!

The west was only using south sudan as a political card against the islamic regime of khartoum so that it can be removed/stopped spreading in other regions

In other words the sudanese crisis was about the governance not about unity vs independence!

John grang was a unionist more than the northerners themselves but he was calling for a new secular sudan that shiria is not part of it

South sudan independence was initiated by al turabi/the ruling islamic front so that they can stay in power in the north under the sharia

Infact, al bashir coup came after the then govt signed agreement with john grang that excluded the sharia from the governance

john garan has appeared after the sharia was adopted in sudan by numairi in 1983 in his alliance with al turabi

So you see they had a governance crisis

In 1991, SPL has splitted through clan lines, the group who was anti-grang was calling for an independence

Islamic front has signed a deal with the separatists in 1992 in order to weaken the unionist john grang

The agreement was signed by lam akol the leader of shilluk faction of SPL representing riek machar the leader of the nuer faction-SPL-nasir

Khartoum was supporting the separatists bc dinka is allied with uganda, in the case they led such an independent south sudan state they will be allied with khartoum, also, they oil is found in their area like abyie and they were ready to share it with the north 50/50

This strategy didn't go well bc of the govts split into pro-al bashir and pro-al turabi in 2000

In 2002, al bashir wing have reached the same agreement with the john grang SPL in order to get the westren and african backing against al turabi wing specially ali otman the second man in the islamic front who signed the deal with john grang as he was promoting himself to the west according to the al turabis wing

Before this agreement, there were two agreements with SPL nasir in frankfurt and in abuja

The frunkfurt agreement was stating: "special political and costitutional status in a future referendum" 1992

This is the oldest official statement that gives the south the right of self-determination without foreing brokers being involved!

So it was a local initiative at all

Lastly you can't compare south sudan with SL, south sudan had the support of the christian churches, some african countries like uganda, they r a different race and have different religions and as a region they all wanted to be independent-as final solution-

SL is an alliance of clans that doesn't share common roots and r affiliated with different places except thir local agreements to keep the stability but this alliance can change at any time based on the conditions

The proof is all these flags in buuhoodle, in togdheer!!

Independence was speaheded by SNM
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPLA-Nasir
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lam_Akol