Yemen is the new Somalia and Saudi Arabia's Vietnam

[Jaidi]

I have family homes in Aden and have been countless times. Not a single soul in Aden supports the Houthis and they've destroyed the city allied with Saleh. People keep talking about the Houthis without realizing 60 percent of troops in the South are not militia but Yemeni Army trained soldiers including an elite unit trained by U.S. for counterterrorism.

Regardless of how this conflict ends up there is no way Yemen will be a united country again, people in South were already behind secession and will be hell bent on it after this experience. Even opinions on the Saudi mission are split regionally, its only the Northerners who are really opposed.

[Jaidi]

abdikarim86,

Its not but it is a factor just like the Reigionalism North Vs South factor,tribal factor, etc.


Basically Yemen is the new Somalia, and instead of Ethiopia/Kenya slavery for us, its Yemeni/Irani for them. Only reason I say they are better off is at least the people meddling in their Country have real money and its not the Peasants who are influencing us.

I agree, laakin it is not the primal, driving factor. Wars of religion
bring out a greater passion in the masses.

Power, tribal factors, and the fact that the former president is helping the Xuuthis
are much more important in this conflict.

The former President is Zaidi which these days are the Shia who are more aligned with the Houthis, However You are right the Shia Vs Sunni angle is a little overplayed. Yemenis ofcourse despise Saudis because Saudis treat Yemenis horrible in Saudi because of Yemen's lack of support in the Gulf War. Saudi was supporting the South When they wanted to secede and the richest Yemenis in Saudi are all from the South (Saudi Citizens, but Southern Yemen origin) and they have influence on Saudi Politics because of their money. When I lived in Saudi I saw first hand that Saudis differentiate between Northern/Southern Yemenis. At the end of the day these are all tribal societies and there are loyalties here and there.

Most well of naturalized Yemenis in Saudi are Hadhrami who have their own distinct identity, they are not as hardcore secessionist as Adenis are. If they had the choice theyd have their own regional autonomy. Saleh is Zaydi in name and was allied with Saudis up untill he was forced to step down. In fact it was under him that Salafi institutes were being opened as far as Saadah and antagonizing the Houthis he could care less and was at war with them for a decade. He is just in an alliance of convenience with them now to try to become the kingmaker in the country again. If the Saudis agree to take him back in the fold in a ceasefire or talks he will turn on the Houthis faster than you know it.

BTW many Northern Sunnis in fact have Zaydi roots and switched over. The biggest Northern tribes all have this and even Islah which was Houthis number 1 enemy in the North, has leaders who were from originally Zaydi tribes.

[Murax]

Jaidi,

You are spot on. I remember this huge milk company in Saudi that was Haudrami in origin as well as Bank Rajhi. In addition You are also 100% spot on Saleh was actually empowering Salafi institutions and was defending them from the Houthis. Right now He is simply just playing the game of thrones by jumping on their backs. I also was reading what You wrote earlier how the Yemeni national Army is pretty much paid by Ali Abdalla Saleh and they report to Him primairly. I agree the only real solution is putting Ali Abdalla Saleh back to His position.


Have You heard anything though about How the Zaidi who were very lax Shite and not part of the Ithna Ashariyah (12 sect) now becoming a little more hardcore? You were right though these Guys many of them left Shia When Sh Muqbil Waada'i RH opened His institute in Sa'dah.

[sahal80]

we got to stop iran extending to our shores

houths r attracting the youth in socotra wich has more shia population and we willl be isolated from the rest of sunni world

nasrallah ignores the other part of the evil and its iran involving in the arab house from bahrain, syria, iraq wich is ruled by al sisani an iranian man.

[Jaidi]

Jaidi,

You are spot on. I remember this huge milk company in Saudi that was Haudrami in origin as well as Bank Rajhi. In addition You are also 100% spot on Saleh was actually empowering Salafi institutions and was defending them from the Houthis. Right now He is simply just playing the game of thrones by jumping on their backs. I also was reading what You wrote earlier how the Yemeni national Army is pretty much paid by Ali Abdalla Saleh and they report to Him primairly. I agree the only real solution is putting Ali Abdalla Saleh back to His position.


Have You heard anything though about How the Zaidi who were very lax Shite and not part of the Ithna Ashariyah (12 sect) now becoming a little more hardcore? You were right though these Guys many of them left Shia When Sh Muqbil Waada'i RH opened His institute in Sa'dah.

Restoring Saleh or his son( as he would like) may work in Sana'a and some of the North ( it wont in places like Taiz and Hudaydah where people are very anti Houthi and anti Saleh) and it will never work in Aden where people were already militantly anti-Saleh and anything Northern in general. People still didnt let go of grievances from 1994 Civil War and it was enough to mobilize the majority through Herak. After this war they will not accept any solution that doesnt provide them secession. I can see the Saudis potentially backing this as a last resort and only way they can retain influence and have someone palatable ruling. Hadi is donefor sure though nobody likes Hadi in Yemen thats another media inaccuracy. The Southerners are not fighting for Hadi, theyre seeing it as self-defense from a Northern invasion.

As for the Houthis, this is what the Saudis and some have claimed in Yemen, that theyre in fact now Twelvers but they deny it. They're more politically assertive after their military successes and have re-adopted an ideology that positions them as the rightful rulers of the country. Dont forget the North was ruled by them for a millenia up till the republican coup and revolution. The issue is their military success has emboldened them to a degree that theyve set the country on fire. All those truce agreements signed over the years had them coming out on top and they learnt they will get more powerful the more they use force.

[abdikarim86]

You should also add the fact that North Yemen is not religiously homogenous.
Only South Yemen is.

In the North there is an almost equal prevalence of Zaydiya Shiica and Shaafici Sunni

[Jaidi]

we got to stop iran extending to our shores

houths r attracting the youth in socotra wich has more shia population and we willl be isolated from the rest of sunni world

nasrallah ignores the other part of the evil and its iran involving in the arab house from bahrain, syria, iraq wich is ruled by al sisani an iranian man.

Socotra?! No way they're isolated and tiny pop. which are related to the Mehris. They have some Ismailis and Zaydis who are not confrontational at all. Mahra has taken a neutral stance on the conflict like Oman.

[Murax]

Jaidi,

You are spot on. I remember this huge milk company in Saudi that was Haudrami in origin as well as Bank Rajhi. In addition You are also 100% spot on Saleh was actually empowering Salafi institutions and was defending them from the Houthis. Right now He is simply just playing the game of thrones by jumping on their backs. I also was reading what You wrote earlier how the Yemeni national Army is pretty much paid by Ali Abdalla Saleh and they report to Him primairly. I agree the only real solution is putting Ali Abdalla Saleh back to His position.


Have You heard anything though about How the Zaidi who were very lax Shite and not part of the Ithna Ashariyah (12 sect) now becoming a little more hardcore? You were right though these Guys many of them left Shia When Sh Muqbil Waada'i RH opened His institute in Sa'dah.

Restoring Saleh or his son( as he would like) may work in Sana'a and some of the North ( it wont in places like Taiz and Hudaydah where people are very anti Houthi and anti Saleh) and it will never work in Aden where people were already militantly anti-Saleh and anything Northern in general. People still didnt let go of grievances from 1994 Civil War and it was enough to mobilize the majority through Herak. After this war they will not accept any solution that doesnt provide them secession. I can see the Saudis potentially backing this as a last resort and only way they can retain influence and have someone palatable ruling. Hadi is donefor sure though nobody likes Hadi in Yemen thats another media inaccuracy. The Southerners are not fighting for Hadi, theyre seeing it as self-defense from a Northern invasion.

As for the Houthis, this is what the Saudis and some have claimed in Yemen, that theyre in fact now Twelvers but they deny it. They're more politically assertive after their military successes and have re-adopted an ideology that positions them as the rightful rulers of the country. Dont forget the North was ruled by them for a millenia up till the republican coup and revolution. The issue is their military success has emboldened them to a degree that theyve set the country on fire. All those truce agreements signed over the years had them coming out on top and they learnt they will get more powerful the more they use force.

Yup, I think this will just end up being a pure North/South Divide. That said, the Houthis as we speak are already in the South, and the South no matter how bitter they are at Saleh/North breaking their back, cannot fight a actual army the Houthi have backing them. I think this may end up being Houthi winning the South for Saleh's return.

[sahal80]

yemen was ruled by three man who belong to the same clan but each of them was representing certain interests

salih the president whos zaydi

muhsin al ahmar was controlling the army hes zaydi too

the late abdallah al ahmer chief of the clan and the parliament hes a sunni and was leading the al islax party which is more a tribal alliance than islamist party also has some salafi elements like zandani and his wahabi schools such as iman university

abdallah al ahmer was a sacudi card

since salih was removed the country was run by his southren deputy

he clashed with the strong man of the army and dissolved his own militia

this man has let the houths control the capital

since then its shia vs sunni

salih was back to yemen and his group were trying to sell themselves to the people and the world againist but as the houths found out his secret plans they want to kill him now and he contacted with djibouti to send him a plane but his request was rejected

majority of the north r shia

[Jaidi]

Jaidi,

You are spot on. I remember this huge milk company in Saudi that was Haudrami in origin as well as Bank Rajhi. In addition You are also 100% spot on Saleh was actually empowering Salafi institutions and was defending them from the Houthis. Right now He is simply just playing the game of thrones by jumping on their backs. I also was reading what You wrote earlier how the Yemeni national Army is pretty much paid by Ali Abdalla Saleh and they report to Him primairly. I agree the only real solution is putting Ali Abdalla Saleh back to His position.


Have You heard anything though about How the Zaidi who were very lax Shite and not part of the Ithna Ashariyah (12 sect) now becoming a little more hardcore? You were right though these Guys many of them left Shia When Sh Muqbil Waada'i RH opened His institute in Sa'dah.

Restoring Saleh or his son( as he would like) may work in Sana'a and some of the North ( it wont in places like Taiz and Hudaydah where people are very anti Houthi and anti Saleh) and it will never work in Aden where people were already militantly anti-Saleh and anything Northern in general. People still didnt let go of grievances from 1994 Civil War and it was enough to mobilize the majority through Herak. After this war they will not accept any solution that doesnt provide them secession. I can see the Saudis potentially backing this as a last resort and only way they can retain influence and have someone palatable ruling. Hadi is donefor sure though nobody likes Hadi in Yemen thats another media inaccuracy. The Southerners are not fighting for Hadi, theyre seeing it as self-defense from a Northern invasion.

As for the Houthis, this is what the Saudis and some have claimed in Yemen, that theyre in fact now Twelvers but they deny it. They're more politically assertive after their military successes and have re-adopted an ideology that positions them as the rightful rulers of the country. Dont forget the North was ruled by them for a millenia up till the republican coup and revolution. The issue is their military success has emboldened them to a degree that theyve set the country on fire. All those truce agreements signed over the years had them coming out on top and they learnt they will get more powerful the more they use force.

Yup, I think this will just end up being a pure North/South Divide. That said, the Houthis as we speak are already in the South, and the South no matter how bitter they are at Saleh/North breaking their back, cannot fight a actual army the Houthi have backing them. I think this may end up being Houthi winning the South for Saleh's return.

They can hardly hold any territory its been weeks and they still are being driven back and forth from districts in Aden. No way they Saudis will accept any resolution that involves the Houthis/Saleh winning militarly in the South after theyve publicly commited to a major operation. Its either slow bleed destructive back and forth conflict that will turn the city entirely into rubble as whats going on now or a major intervention to push them back through ground troops. The latter is likely I think as time goes on. I think Houthis/Saleh are trying to hold as much territory in the country before potential face-saving talks but Im not sure if Saudis will agree to this anymore.

We havent even discussed how AQ has captured Hadhramuts biggest towns. The country is a disaster tbh.

[Murax]

Sahal80,

Zandani Was Ikhwani not Salafi, and Iman University is not 'Wahabbi' but is despised by Saudi as Ikhwaan. Thats like saying Saudi loves Azhar (Or what Azhar used to be). As Jaidi said, Ali Abdalla Saleh was supporting the Salafis agaisnt the Houthis as the Salafis used to call people to not revolt against Him, and its also why he distanced the Ikhwanis who wanted some of His powers. This is why When the Houthis bured the Salafi institution Dammaj to the ground the supporters of Zandani, AQAP and others just sat back, laughed ,Had some popcorn and watched lol

[Jaidi]

yemen was ruled by three man who belong to the same clan but each of them was representing certain interests

salih the president whos zaydi

muhsin al ahmar was controlling the army hes zaydi too

the late abdallah al ahmer chief of the clan and the parliament hes a sunni and was leading the al islax party which is more a tribal alliance than islamist party also has some salafi elements like zandani and his wahabi schools such as iman university

abdallah al ahmer was a sacudi card

since salih was removed the country was run by his southren deputy

he clashed with the strong man of the army and dissolved his own militia

this man has let the houths control the capital

since then its shia vs sunni

salih was back to yemen and his group were trying to sell themselves to the people and the world againist but as the houths found out his secret plans they want to kill him now and he contacted with djibouti to send him a plane but his request was rejected

majority of the north r shia

If theres anything every faction agreed on at one point its the fact they dislike Islah. Saleh hated them because Ali Muhsin switched sides on him. Hadi wanted to get rid of him because he saw them as threat to power. Southerners hate Islah because of 1994 Civil War which had land grabs from Islahis and a fatwa from Zindani calling Southerners Marxist apostates who jihad was permissible against. The Houthis hated Islah because Ali Muhsin led the war against them. This all combined to help Houthis come in with opposition only from tribal militias allied to Ahmars and Ali Muhsins troops. Hadi thought he could get a handle on the situation after Muhsin and Islah were margnalized but he got outflanked and outsmarted by Houthi and Saleh cooperation.

[Jaidi]

Sahal80,

Zandani Was Ikhwani not Salafi, and Iman University is not 'Wahabbi' but is despised by Saudi as Ikhwaan. Thats like saying Saudi loves Azhar (Or what Azhar used to be). As Jaidi said, Ali Abdalla Saleh was supporting the Salafis agaisnt the Houthis as the Salafis used to call people to not revolt against Him, and its also why he distanced the Ikhwanis who wanted some of His powers. This is why When the Houthis bured the Salafi institution Dammaj to the ground the supporters of Zandani, AQAP and others just sat back, laughed ,Had some popcorn and watched lol

There are some Salafis under Islah umbrella its not a purely MB party like the equivalent countries. But yes everyone thought they could outsmart Houthis and it backfired.

[abdikarim86]

Sahal80,

Zandani Was Ikhwani not Salafi, and Iman University is not 'Wahabbi' but is despised by Saudi as Ikhwaan. Thats like saying Saudi loves Azhar (Or what Azhar used to be). As Jaidi said, Ali Abdalla Saleh was supporting the Salafis agaisnt the Houthis as the Salafis used to call people to not revolt against Him, and its also why he distanced the Ikhwanis who wanted some of His powers. This is why When the Houthis bured the Salafi institution Dammaj to the ground the supporters of Zandani, AQAP and others just sat back, laughed ,Had some popcorn and watched lol

I was just reading about this, I had no idea Dammaj had been destroyed by the Xuuthis.
Things are changing and moving fast .....

[Murax]

Jaidi,

The Salafis I was talking about wasn't the politically motivated ones, but the ones who basically called for complete hands off poiltics, obeying the ruler Ali Abdalla Saleh. Inparticular the institute in Dammaj, Ma'bar, and the Guys like Sh Muqbil RH, Sh Yahya Hajoori,. Yahya Hajoori who was running Dammaj is now in Saudi.