Somali election 2016

[theyuusuf143]

4.5 is unfair because Dir and D&M are not equal to Darod and Hawiye. If we follow the recent (flawed) estimate , MJ is larger than D&M, It is totally unfair.

I believe that one man one vote can happen in Somalia by the end of 2016 but only in stable areas. Some MPs will come by direct vote and some by clan agreement if Alshabab continues to hold their degmos. The technology of elections has become easier and easier with time, it will be relatively easy.
Culusow is already under tremendous international pressure, and will not be allowed to extend his term.

. I thought you are politically advanced. Direct elections can not happen in Somalia next year. Its completely impossible. Please feel free to share what kind of electoral voting system you are talking about. Votes are different than Zaad boowe all Somalia citizens need to be registered. Before they vote electronically, its long process.

The 4.5 does not represent all dir or darod or hawiye For example most ogandens clans are not recognised as Somalian citizens generally. The same goes to ciise madoobe and dagaadi. The 4.5 represents the well known Somali subclans living in what used to be the SOMALI REPUBLIC (somalia+Somaliland clans only) . Its fair and No somali have better option. Ninkii xal ka wanaagsan hayaa halkan hasoo dhigo.

[thegoodshepherd]

Ogaden have 12 seats in parliament same as MJ. They have huge land in Somalia and live in 4 gobols.
Cisse and Degodiye live almost entirely outside of Somalia but have some pockets in Somalia.

The system I am talking about does not need registration. Voters would be registered at the polling place. It was proposed by Dr. Baadiyow and PM Abdiweli Sh. Ahmed. http://www.mareeg.com/doorasho-ma-ka-dh ... liya-2016/

[Otherbrother]

Ogadeen have a lot of land, south side of the jubba river and some areas in bakool. They are everywhere and not the best in numbers like their land will suggest.

Cisse have huge swaths of land in awdal, again they don't have the number of the gadabuursi but they are present in SL.

They both deserved seats in the old 4.5.

[theyuusuf143]

If ogaden got 12 seats of darod mps it does not mean they have equal Number of Somalian citizens as mjs or marehan. Its just general consensus between darod clans.

I read the link the solution they suggested still needs the backup of 4.5. Why ? Because they said every party should collect their candidates from diffrent Somali clans and gender. If you and me are the leaders of one party. How can we distribute our number of candidates ? Remmber we need to get more votes. Should we make it all mjs ? Should we use the 4.5 formula ? Or we pick one laandheere active member from each clan depending on the voting location. I mean you can see the system requires clan management. It looks like 4.5 second generation whichs even more interesting how ever minority groups and women may loose more representatives. At the other hand Dr baadiyaw suggestion is a electronic voting system The same way i mentioned. He also suggested that diaspora will vote as well. The question is how long it will take to register Somalian citizens around the globe ? Can the somalian parliament pass all the assential laws withing the next 18 months? Even if Somalia goverment decide to to hold the election in Xamar and puntland alone the prapartion time is not enough. My final conclution direct election can not happen in Somalia next 2016 year.

[theyuusuf143]

I forget that if they do as we did in somaliland 2010 elections ( the jaantaa rogan style) there will be huge fraud. Some voters my try to double vote in the embassy or local polling stations if the electoral commission does not use highly sophisticated registering methods like finger and eye prints.

[DR-YALAXOOW]

doorasho xaq ah 2016 aad ayey u adkaaneysaa.. waa run doorashadu waxay ka dhici kartaa gobolo aad u tiro baddan sida bunaaniland. khaatumo. koonfur. ilaa kismaayo. laakiin suaashu waa ma noqoneysa doorasho xaq ah ama waxay noqoneysaa doorasho lagu shubto...

[GIJaamac]

Anyone who believes that one man one vote is happening in 2016 in somalia is hallucinating. Period.

[thegoodshepherd]

Yusuf, parties will not base themselves on qabil because they will want to win as many degmos as possible.
Each party will nominate 90 or so candidates one for each degmo in Somalia. The party that wins the most degmos gets to form a government.
Somalia will be based on a parliamentary system where parliament is more powerful than the President or PM.

doorasho xaq ah 2016 aad ayey u adkaaneysaa.. waa run doorashadu waxay ka dhici kartaa gobolo aad u tiro baddan sida bunaaniland. khaatumo. koonfur. ilaa kismaayo. laakiin suaashu waa ma noqoneysa doorasho xaq ah ama waxay noqoneysaa doorasho lagu shubto...

maalmahan aad aye sahal u noqotay in la hor istaago musuqmaasuqa doroshooyinka.
Eye scan technology can help make sure no one votes more than once, making corruption very difficult.
Hadi Culusow is xil saaro doorasho wey dhici karta laakin wuxu ogyahay in uusan helayn hal cod

[Siciid85]

The biggest fck up in my opinion is the idea that federal states have to be 2 or more instead of simply recognizing single regional provinces as federal gov't members and designating specific number of representatives based on populations. This idea that two regions must unite to form federal state has caused stagnation and headache

[Arcturus]

In 1956 prior to independence of Somalia-Italia trusteeship there was competition between two opposing political groups.

1. 30% of the population were pro-federalism [D&M]
2. 60% of population were pro-SYL [Darood & Hawiye]

10% were minorities

Since Hawiye represented 40% of the trusteeship population to secure political office they needed to form a coalition with one other clan. The clan population composition was such that numerous coalitions were possible. It is this need for coalition that assured some semblance of unity and the need for longer term diplomacy.

This balance was totally lost 01-Jul-1960 when unity and order were traded for territorial and population gain.

Somali republic clan dynamics post independence and annexation of British somaliland.

- Hawiye 25%
- Isaaq 22%
- Darood 20%
- D&M 20%
- Dir 7%
- Others 6%

The new composition rather then benefiting from diversity of coalitions instead created an environment of greater opposition.

Trusteeship Majority Coalition = 60% [Stable Duopoly System]

Independence Majority coalition = 51% [Unstable Duopoly System]

The reason for the comparison is to clarify how and why the pre-independence clan dynamics functioned as opposed to the post-independence. The coalition clans all expect to receive a significant political post. There aren't enough such POSTs for all clans in a coalition.

Options: Prior to the contemplation of the next SELECTION process:

1. Return clan population to their pre-independence distribution, via return to trusteeship territory.
2. Return to status of trust territory instead of UN this time AU.

[CaliQase]

"2. Return to status of trust territory instead of UN this time AU"
Are you kidding me?!

[Arcturus]

"2. Return to status of trust territory instead of UN this time AU"
Are you kidding me?!

Would you prefer an Igad-Trusteeship instead?

Probable cause since Igad can claim they have hosted a significant portion of your population for over 25years!

[CaliQase]

Waraa masaajidka ciyaarta ka daa

[thegoodshepherd]

The end of the trusteeship and uniting of south and north benefited Darood the most. The consolidation led to a decrease in relative percentage for both Hawiye and Isaaq. A return to two divided territories is not favorable for Darood, but would increase the relative political standing of other clans.

BTW, D&M were 30% of the population of Italian Somalia at some point but they no longer are. Today Bari+Nugaal has more people than Bay+Bakool. Famine and the civil war really pushed down their numbers.

[Arcturus]

The end of the trusteeship and uniting of south and north benefited Darood the most. The consolidation led to a decrease in relative percentage for both Hawiye and Isaaq. A return to two divided territories is not favorable for Darood, but would increase the relative political standing of other clans.

BTW, D&M were 30% of the population of Italian Somalia at some point but they no longer are. Today Bari+Nugaal has more people than Bay+Bakool. Famine and the civil war really pushed down their numbers.

Even if Darood numbers reduce in a Two-state solution, the need for coalition would still assure their prominence in somalia-italia(12gobols). More then 50% of those gobols would fall under Darood influence whether under federalism or some sort of provincial 1man 1vote.

Two state solution would also force greater political distribution within somaliland in favor of Darood.

- Kenya
- Somalia
- Ethiopia
- Somaliland

Sum of the political shares from 4 countries is certainly larger then a single share if/when Somaliweyn was ever achieved.