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hiraab cant even liberate villages let alone mogadishu

people think sna in xamar is hawiye alone, let marexaan and OG leave, lets see how long it will take before major districts fall to al shabab

hawiye politicians are like their soldiers undisciplined and maalin ku nool


farmaajo is the clue that holds together hawiye otherwise they will be at each others throat, look what happening galmudug and how divided xamar still is between abgaal and habar gedir

sahal is a xawadle that we marexaan saved from extinction in the 90s, talo xumo xawadle uu daa.

there is no such thing as hiraab, abgaal will never trust habar gedir.

habar gedir will return to their status in pree 1991

since they have now politicians with european degrees they think they can rue somalia

we have outmanouvered every tribe and defeated every tribe in battle yet sahal wants to convince u that marexaan power is not a reality in somalia

21 years, 2 presidents and three prime ministers, take that to the bank

every generation of somalis post 1960 grew up with marexaan leadership

Laangaab xawadle..what is your issue with the government. Stay out of it..you are not hawiye..and Hawiye is not paying for your dabadhilifnimo..stfu

Nolol cusub wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:13 am

Amisom relies on hiraab national army HNA checkpoints all the way to baraawe and hiiraan. If these troops evacuate their positions Amisom will be on danger so they are gonna impose solution. Abgaal army have evacuated their positions on jowhar airport. There is a possibility of warsangali/harti abgaal militia controlling jowhar and waare may move to baladweyne....some chaos is taking place now in jowhar but as hirshabelle fellow i dont care because we all know is jowhar is back garden of xamar so what's going in xamar will impact on it so let them be banaadir state and we gonna be hiiraan state until winds settle. Waare stays in xamar anyways. We and abgaal are not mixed at all except the name we have our plans and policies for hiiraan and leave theirs for them and all the UN agencies are based in baladweyne.

Farmaajo may try to appoint yarisow who's a
wacbuudhan or thaabit who's waceysle but hes under the control of murursade who are threatening to kill him if atleast they didnt pick who succeeds kheyre. They are also telling him every thing is alright and should leave kheyre to deal with situation.
[/quote]


I think it is too late for the south now.

Anyone seen the Day After Tomorrow, where Jack Hall(Denis Quaid) draws a line on the US map and says, "evacuate anyone south of this line" The Veep looks at him and says what about the people on the North,. Jack looks at him and says, "too late for them"

I really think it matters little what Hiraab does or doesn't. There is 95% chance that south will sink. The new defensive line will have to be drawn in Baladwenye all the way to cost of Harardheere. South of Baledweyne will be lost to Islamists, North of Baledwenye can be defended if Habargidir wakes up and starts to think strategically.

Survival and consolidation

I think it is time that GM state(Habargidir) and Somaliland(Isaaq) should actively cooperate to fortify this line. Within a few years this line of thinking will be mainstream in both groups. GM state has always acted as a strategic buffer for Somaliland and a defensive umbrella for Hawiye subclans. I think this type of arrangement has served its purposes. Alshabaab and other Islamist groups will gradually overrun the south and consolidate their grip on south of Baledweyne to Raskamboni. GM state, Somaliland will have zero choice but to develop a single security strategy to keep that line intact. Unless I am giving too much credit to the collective intelligence of the duo. I think the Sacads always sense danger from afar, but I could be wrong about this generation.

New Somalia (Geography, religious, political and historical identity would be a crucial factor. )


South of Baledweyne(Wahabi Somalia)

North of Baledweyne (Free Somalia). I think the Saudis and free world would have to throw their lot on this side.


Anyone who thinks this is far-fetched scenario would only need to examine two developments.

1. None of the sub-clans in the South have had a genuine control over their territories for the past 30 years. This starts early in 1990s and continues until the present. Look at the level of dysfunctionality and lack regional political identity(a prime example would be Marehans.) Save Somalia when their region is literally infested with Alshabaab and African Union). Mudulloods have had 8 years of their own president and could not create a regional political identity of their own. If Southern clans could not do what needed to be done in peaceful and opportune time how can we expect them to do under constant alshabaab threat.

The opposite picture emerges if you look at the political identity and the level organization on the sub-clans that live north of Baledweyn.
This starts with Somaliland in 1991, few years later Puntland, then 2004 GM state. More importantly there is a strong local political and religious identity that makes it harder for an outsider to impose his wahabi crap.

2. In terms of pure power politics you have a delusional Haraadigii Bare character who thinks he can restore the lost days of "Barre civilization" . Next, you have the usual local opposition groups that have 90% of the economy, 90% population and who will always smell Barre's mouth from Afgooye. In the meantime you have the foreign people, the ones that drove their anti terror state apparatus on the back of Ethiopian tanks into Mogadishu, watching and waiting for democratic and united Somalia to miraculously take shape.

---

Final thought,

- Somalia would break up into two ideologically opposed camps, with Baledweyne being the dividing line. Think of North and South Korea.
- Hawadle needs to join GM state to survive.
- The sooner GM state and Somaliland start making plans for survival contingency the better.
- GM state business groups should make plans to move their investment away from the south. Population would have to follow.
- This would eventually mean the break up of Hawiye sub-clan alliance, one that started with United Somali Congress.


What about Puntland?


This state could go both ways. Strategically their interest perfect aligns with GM state and Somaliland. The question is can they put aside useless clan emotions(Darodism) and make hard decisions to survive. History shows they will not, but the younger generations could be different.


Lenin used to say the reward for political stupidity is death. This is certainly true for the South, one half of Somalia is gone. Will the other half make better decisions. We will know soon.



....
[/quote] lol I cant tell your identity (yaa tahay kkk) but I dont get your point of SL and Galmudug this SNM-USC discourse has gone with the 90s today SL benefits the most in distablyzing xamar because there is no other reason to get ictiraaf. There is slogan is being stable and different than koonfur and having different colonial history not because we r different people so the long the crisis continue in the south the more ictraaf argument continues. I have mentioned my thread on SL chances getting benefiting from the current pro al shabab situation. Infact PL is closer to GLM than SL bc PL defends federalism but SL wants one authority in koonfur to look different then federal state. I mentioned this factor as well. I dont want change to topic into confrontations with landers just giving you my point.
Another thing is the new alliance between Dir of ethiopia and SL and you got southern dir issue with HG. Executive committee of the ruling part in the somali region 4 were given to dir and 4 one was isaaq,one iise. 4 darod all absame 1 hawiye degodia:somali region has become 50/50 absame and dir.

About your point about hiiraan joining Galmudug we like security cooperation but as state no. Reason is xamar masesed up is mixing too much specially we have greener land. HG cayr have benefited from having a long hawadle wall from maxaas next to ceelbuur to matabaan. Hiiraan is the most safest region after galmudug it's not like the south at all. Al shabaab controlled hiiraan in 2010. We had pro TFG admin from jalalaqsi to baladweyne without amisom presence from November 2008 to September 2009 un then a period acting as hisbul islam till 2010. 140km east of baladweyne, 70km north of baladweyne till matabaan. The river side till feerfeer 45 mm all free no amisom except one base in the town mustahil not the district even we use jidcad roads for halgan and buuloburde bc al shabaab fears our macawisleey an armed nomads.

See this September 2009 all koonfur was sea of al shabaab back then and TzfG were only controlling maka street


http://www.allceegaag.com/fiinyarebacku ... iiraan.htm

Typhoon wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am hiraab cant even liberate villages let alone mogadishu

people think sna in xamar is hawiye alone, let marexaan and OG leave, lets see how long it will take before major districts fall to al shabab

kkķkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
And i thought you someone with a serious thought but hey no one can control his qabiil emotions until the reality hits them. When did the mx and OG army were deployed in xamar and shabeelooyinka? Listen my friend these armies are hiraab but they were caring about their money first not their hiraab politicians bc that is a job for them. For 4 months this govt hasn't paid those in the fronts so now the politicians are paying their loyalties. There are 5,000 turkish trained soldies who are based in balidoogle and they get paid by the US. This govt has asked for to deploy them in baraawe and lowershabelle in general to keep amisom there before their training finish. They had Turkey one and now are going through US one. When HG heard this abgaalkii eey uga baxeen but still abgaals cover up to hiiraan and there is no army to replace them. Even these turkish trained troops are all collected from xamar but it's the money who defines their loyalty and America pays them.

Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE wrote: Laangaab xawadle..what is your issue with the government. Stay out of it..you are not hawiye..and Hawiye is not paying for your dabadhilifnimo..stfu

ok "laandheerad mx" first I'm NOT talking about gedo and if your adeer is in xamar is not my problem. Secondly yiu dont need you to tell me who I'm and yes hiraab military situation concerns me I'm not someone who has no even courts and executes soldiers without maxkamad happened twice one in dollow in the hand of janan and now in baardheere

. I have federal state and plans and fear for my southern towns lke jalalaqsi and I stated in this gedo section is there

sahal80 wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:33 pm

Typhoon wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am hiraab cant even liberate villages let alone mogadishu

people think sna in xamar is hawiye alone, let marexaan and OG leave, lets see how long it will take before major districts fall to al shabab

kkķkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
And i thought you someone with a serious thought but hey no one can control his qabiil emotions until the reality hits them. When did the mx and OG army were deployed in xamar and shabeelooyinka? Listen my friend these armies are hiraab but they were caring about their money first not their hiraab politicians bc that is a job for them. For 4 months this govt hasn't paid those in the fronts so now the politicians are paying their loyalties. There are 5,000 turkish trained soldies who are based in balidoogle and they get paid by the US. This govt has asked for to deploy them in baraawe and lowershabelle in general to keep amisom there before their training finish. They had Turkey one and now are going through US one. When HG heard this abgaalkii eey uga baxeen but still abgaals cover up to hiiraan and there is no army to replace them. Even these turkish trained troops are all collected from xamar but it's the money who defines their loyalty and America pays them.

Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE wrote: Laangaab xawadle..what is your issue with the government. Stay out of it..you are not hawiye..and Hawiye is not paying for your dabadhilifnimo..stfu

ok "laandheerad mx" first I'm NOT talking about gedo and if your adeer is in xamar is not my problem. Secondly yiu dont need you to tell me who I'm and yes hiraab military situation concerns me I'm not someone who has no even courts and executes soldiers without maxkamad happened twice one in dollow in the hand of janan and now in baardheere

. I have federal state and plans and fear for my southern towns lke jalalaqsi and I stated in this gedo section is there

What the hell are you blubbering about ? You don’t make sense, Sahal..kulaha I have a federal state..more like invisible state. You are only hiraab through siyasad not by blood. Hirabs don’t even like your xawadle people...stop sucking their balls doqonyhow bila dhig ah.

Last political situation

As I said HG feared of US backed more disciplined turkish trained plus Danab of balidoogle in their strongholds in lower shabelle so they deploy a new tactics of destablizing their side of xamar mostly the central Mogadishu like hodan area in tarabuunka and ceyrpopulare.right now xamar abgaal iyo HG eey u kala xirantahay with the exception of the murursade areas. The abgaal militias are pouring in cabdicasiis where muuse suudi stays and shibis. It really looks like the xamar of 91 when the the USC factions each had an area.

I dont mention hawadle in xamar politics not because they dont exist in there but because it's not our territorial but we have never being dislodged from xamar by hiraabs as we had dhufeys in an area called waax. cakaaro war between caydiid and helped us more as we sided with Cato who invaded baladweyne so we live between pro caato at siliga maraykanka and the abgaals behind wadada wadajir. We live between madiina hospital and wadada wadajir. We moved to this area from the near by the airport so it's not true hawadle being removed from xamar. We had clashes with both abgaal and qaybdiid forces who acting as police yet no one removed us.
This guy is one of the new taliyaasha policeka banadir who are exclusively HAG. In banadir admin we have the secretary general of banadir


This is nasteexa map

http://wikimapia.org/31966353/xaafada-nasteexo

HG moved the tension from Lowe shabelle to central Mogadishu.

http://daljire.com/2019/04/04/war-deg-d ... -muqdisho/


"In Wadajir district, the main camp, Rajo, which some humanitarian actors have described as a model camp, is administered and controlled by the district commissioner of Wadajir and the divisional leader. Security is provided by the district commissioner’s militia. The militia is Abgal, a Hawiye sub-clan dominant in Mogadishu. Part of this militia is reported to have been integrated into the government forces in recent years.[46] Siliga camp, also in Wadajir, includes one section that is controlled by Hawadle militia, another Hawiye sub-clan prevalent in Mogadishu, and another section controlled by an “umbrella” organization called Saredo, which is run by the wife of former Member of Parliament (MP) Osman Ali Atto, who are from the Sa’ad clan.[47] According to a recent study of political dynamics in Mogadishu, militias in Wadajir are affiliated to members of the local authorities, though this has not been independently verified by Human Rights Watch.[48]"

Typhoon wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am hiraab cant even liberate villages let alone mogadishu

people think sna in xamar is hawiye alone, let marexaan and OG leave, lets see how long it will take before major districts fall to al shabab

hawiye politicians are like their soldiers undisciplined and maalin ku nool


farmaajo is the clue that holds together hawiye otherwise they will be at each others throat, look what happening galmudug and how divided xamar still is between abgaal and habar gedir

sahal is a xawadle that we marexaan saved from extinction in the 90s, talo xumo xawadle uu daa.

there is no such thing as hiraab, abgaal will never trust habar gedir.

habar gedir will return to their status in pree 1991

since they have now politicians with european degrees they think they can rue somalia

we have outmanouvered every tribe and defeated every tribe in battle yet sahal wants to convince u that marexaan power is not a reality in somalia

21 years, 2 presidents and three prime ministers, take that to the bank

every generation of somalis post 1960 grew up with marexaan leadership

There are no merxaan or ogaden soldiers in xamar ,
Are you talking the good ol kacan days in the 70s ?

Dont come here and lie to ppl , The natives of that city know each other sons that's protecting that city .

Y'all are very delusional , I think most of you boons on this forum are lowkey mentally Ill.go and see a doctor bruddah

Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 4:46 pm

sahal80 wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:33 pm

Typhoon wrote: Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:30 am hiraab cant even liberate villages let alone mogadishu

people think sna in xamar is hawiye alone, let marexaan and OG leave, lets see how long it will take before major districts fall to al shabab

kkķkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
And i thought you someone with a serious thought but hey no one can control his qabiil emotions until the reality hits them. When did the mx and OG army were deployed in xamar and shabeelooyinka? Listen my friend these armies are hiraab but they were caring about their money first not their hiraab politicians bc that is a job for them. For 4 months this govt hasn't paid those in the fronts so now the politicians are paying their loyalties. There are 5,000 turkish trained soldies who are based in balidoogle and they get paid by the US. This govt has asked for to deploy them in baraawe and lowershabelle in general to keep amisom there before their training finish. They had Turkey one and now are going through US one. When HG heard this abgaalkii eey uga baxeen but still abgaals cover up to hiiraan and there is no army to replace them. Even these turkish trained troops are all collected from xamar but it's the money who defines their loyalty and America pays them.

Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE wrote: Laangaab xawadle..what is your issue with the government. Stay out of it..you are not hawiye..and Hawiye is not paying for your dabadhilifnimo..stfu

ok "laandheerad mx" first I'm NOT talking about gedo and if your adeer is in xamar is not my problem. Secondly yiu dont need you to tell me who I'm and yes hiraab military situation concerns me I'm not someone who has no even courts and executes soldiers without maxkamad happened twice one in dollow in the hand of janan and now in baardheere

. I have federal state and plans and fear for my southern towns lke jalalaqsi and I stated in this gedo section is there

What the hell are you blubbering about ? You don’t make sense, Sahal..kulaha I have a federal state..more like invisible state. You are only hiraab through siyasad not by blood. Hirabs don’t even like your xawadle people...stop sucking their balls doqonyhow bila dhig ah.

you said I'm not hawiye yes as abtirsi I'm not this is very old stuff every body knows hawiye are hiraab and murursade, badicade,jijeele the rest are gaashambuur so you dont have to resort to cheap shots. Do you know that hawadle have 10 mps the hawiye first born murursade have got 8, we have more saraakiil then them every wax qaybsi we fellow abgaal and HG so that's all I care not blood. You know that hawadle have the president of hirshabelle and run their own region unlike you. It means you own to your positions to darod not per subclan. HAG prefers mx over mj and OG are not seen as somalis this gives big opportunity to mx but tell me what's mx role in JL and Galmudug we know carabeeys past and know they are bringing back his boss abdikarim guuleed to be used for PL. Farmaajo even supports one intact mudug where cumar maxamuud will have the vice president and the capital. Kick out the inlaw kheyre than let us see if you can compete with a hiraab pm. Sxb we hawadle have thinked about playing the same mx role with HAG for darod. Example alot of darod and Digil iyo mirifle have asked goodax for the PM speaker but hawadle became against him because we care about the interests of HAG. Do you know that abdullahi Yusuf offered to us to give him a second seat in baladweyne in a military base called lamagalaay with arming 4000 troops for us and possible replace geedi but they refused and said no and even refused to give his troops stationed in feerfeer to give a safe passage for jowhar bc we r committed to the gashambuhr with HG. They entered jowhar from lower shabelle via bakool. Farmaajo becoming a president has to do with HG and murursade wanting the PM and not with mx or darod. A gift sent to you from the sky. We r regional authority but for PM post it needs to have a little isbaaro in xamar but if we want we can take a non political position like the speaker no HG or abgaal will be fighting us on it and we will not gonna target them but this only if the president becomes a digil iyo mirifle . Anyways we are here for kaftan dont take it seriously and wait laga barey BAA laga baadiyaa! We gonna play your role in a different way!

[/quote] lol I cant tell your identity (yaa tahay kkk) but I dont get your point of SL and Galmudug this SNM-USC discourse has gone with the 90s today SL benefits the most in distablyzing xamar because there is no other reason to get ictiraaf. There is slogan is being stable and different than koonfur and having different colonial history not because we r different people so the long the crisis continue in the south the more ictraaf argument continues. I have mentioned my thread on SL chances getting benefiting from the current pro al shabab situation. Infact PL is closer to GLM than SL bc PL defends federalism but SL wants one authority in koonfur to look different then federal state. I mentioned this factor as well. I dont want change to topic into confrontations with landers just giving you my point.
-----



I am sure my old man is a member of the sect that rolled the ball on the current downward trajectory, Sacad Habargidir. I am a modern guy so my interest lies in the long term prosperity and survival of Somali people, starting from the bottom up.


I see you have a clear grasp of power politics in the south, how sub-clan/personality driven pastoral political succession is played out in a changing alliances and in the towns and cities south of Baledweyne to Banadir region. I don't have to follow these details to accurately predict what the landscape of southern politics would look like a decade from now.

What is not new.

Pastoral based sub-clan rivalries
Personality driven political ambitions

What is new since 2004

The emergence of determined and organized religious movement that seeks not only to dominate weakened, divided southern sub-clans but also is engaged an active neutralization program through assassinations, intimidation as well as a wide network of spies.
The organization also borrows from Mexican drug cartels in its use of extortion, settling scores, disputes, and orchestrating horrific terrorist bombing against businesses, and individual who refuse to submit. Cumulatively this creates a real psychological fear that personal safety cannot be guaranteed by one's sub-clans nor by a paper based "Federal government". So what you have here is a side that has not only been maximizing its hard fought and hard gained opportunities day by day but is literally blessed with competing a corrupt personality driven, sub-clan based political pretenders.

Group feeling(Asabiyya)

In Muqqadimah, Ibn Khaldun makes it clear what happens to tribes and clans that lose their group feeling, "Group feeling produces the ability to defend oneself, to protect oneself and to press one’s claims. Whoever loses his group feeling is too weak to do any one of these things. (Ibn Khaldūn, 1969: 111)

The southern sub-clans have progressively lost the type of group feeling that Ibn Khaldun alludes to, a collective genuine group feeling that binds a large number of people to protect business, political, and territorial interest. What replaced it is of two variations:

- a superficial one that spikes when a political pretender makes a move on the throne. Contrast Marehan group feeling that ballooned in the aftermath of Musuqmaajo "election" with conspicuously absent one(the real one that would have allowed an important sub-clan like this one to focus on rebuilding Gedo)

- a fleeting and disorganized one that responds when there is physical threat against members of the sub-clan.

Both of these variation would be too weak to compete with a determined foe like Al-shabaab, This is especially true when al-shabaab is smart enough to replace sub-clan loyalty with security protection.

Recap:

By default the radicals are expected to triumph in the south. So the the question is not if, but when. Now, when this happens the defensive line would have be drawn from Baledweyn to Harardheere. You can also be sure that this organization with south under its belt will strive to bring anyone under North of Beledweyn under its control.



...

Sahal,

Imagine you wake up one morning, five years from now with a totally different political map of Somalia, one that has an Islamist umbrella led by al-shabaab controlling North of Baledweyn to Raskamboni. What would you do?

Remember this is not a totally far fetched scenario. It actually happened. An Islamist movement pierced through us (divided Habargidir at the time, point conceded) and were stopped if I am not mistaken in Bandiiradley.

How would you organize Hawadle and Habargidir if you were to make the shots for us. Who else would you enlist and why?


...

Nolol cusub wrote: Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:02 am

lol I cant tell your identity (yaa tahay kkk) but I dont get your point of SL and Galmudug this SNM-USC discourse has gone with the 90s today SL benefits the most in distablyzing xamar because there is no other reason to get ictiraaf. There is slogan is being stable and different than koonfur and having different colonial history not because we r different people so the long the crisis continue in the south the more ictraaf argument continues. I have mentioned my thread on SL chances getting benefiting from the current pro al shabab situation. Infact PL is closer to GLM than SL bc PL defends federalism but SL wants one authority in koonfur to look different then federal state. I mentioned this factor as well. I dont want change to topic into confrontations with landers just giving you my point.
-----



I am sure my old man is a member of the sect that rolled the ball on the current downward trajectory, Sacad Habargidir. I am a modern guy so my interest lies in the long term prosperity and survival of Somali people, starting from the bottom up.


I see you have a clear grasp of power politics in the south, how sub-clan/personality driven pastoral political succession is played out in a changing alliances and in the towns and cities south of Baledweyne to Banadir region. I don't have to follow these details to accurately predict what the landscape of southern politics would look like a decade from now.

What is not new.

Pastoral based sub-clan rivalries
Personality driven political ambitions

What is new since 2004

The emergence of determined and organized religious movement that seeks not only to dominate weakened, divided southern sub-clans but also is engaged an active neutralization program through assassinations, intimidation as well as a wide network of spies.
The organization also borrows from Mexican drug cartels in its use of extortion, settling scores, disputes, and orchestrating horrific terrorist bombing against businesses, and individual who refuse to submit. Cumulatively this creates a real psychological fear that personal safety cannot be guaranteed by one's sub-clans nor by a paper based "Federal government". So what you have here is a side that has not only been maximizing its hard fought and hard gained opportunities day by day but is literally blessed with competing a corrupt personality driven, sub-clan based political pretenders.

Group feeling(Asabiyya)

In Muqqadimah, Ibn Khaldun makes it clear what happens to tribes and clans that lose their group feeling, "Group feeling produces the ability to defend oneself, to protect oneself and to press one’s claims. Whoever loses his group feeling is too weak to do any one of these things. (Ibn Khaldūn, 1969: 111)

The southern sub-clans have progressively lost the type of group feeling that Ibn Khaldun alludes to, a collective genuine group feeling that binds a large number of people to protect business, political, and territorial interest. What replaced it is of two variations:

- a superficial one that spikes when a political pretender makes a move on the throne. Contrast Marehan group feeling that ballooned in the aftermath of Musuqmaajo "election" with conspicuously absent one(the real one that would have allowed an important sub-clan like this one to focus on rebuilding Gedo)

- a fleeting and disorganized one that responds when there is physical threat against members of the sub-clan.

Both of these variation would be too weak to compete with a determined foe like Al-shabaab, This is especially true when al-shabaab is smart enough to replace sub-clan loyalty with security protection.

Recap:

By default the radicals are expected to triumph in the south. So the the question is not if, but when. Now, when this happens the defensive line would have be drawn from Baledweyn to Harardheere. You can also be sure that this organization with south under its belt will strive to bring anyone under North of Beledweyn under its control.



...
[/quote]mashallah very interesting posts. Yeah I known ibnu khalduns theory and that is the reason why the south has become what its now; lack of العصبية القبلية

But in the long term it will be better than SL and PL who will stay in their static tribal situation as south is more dynamic and al shabab is just a phenomena but someday the south will be moving from extremism to modernism like Algeria. Al shabab was just a warlord backlash like trumpism was a white backlash as a result of 8 years of black man rule but the trumpism is now shrinking in fact it's the reason why two muslim women are in the Congress one of them is hijabi!
Syria is recovering from the extremism who was caused by a religious backlash of 60 years bacthi calmaani rule not because they are going back to the old system but they have seen in their eyes what's is like to be ruled by daesh and nusrat. The people in the south have tired of extremism but there is no alternative because of corruption, fear of the unpaid army replacing al shabab so once there be good governance and judicial system al shabab phenomena will disappear by itself.

@ Sahal, these People you talking to MX have little or no land in Somalia its a fact, they live in Border between Ethiopia and Somalia Kenya, no point of arguing don't respond them back.

the only thing that make them relevant today is farmaajo it starts him and ends him.

@ Sahal, these People you talking to MX have little or no land in Somalia its a fact, they live in Border between Ethiopia and Somalia Kenya, no point of arguing don't respond them back.

the only thing that make them relevant today is farmaajo it starts him and ends him.

Nolol cusub wrote: Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:27 am Sahal,

Imagine you wake up one morning, five years from now with a totally different political map of Somalia, one that has an Islamist umbrella led by al-shabaab controlling North of Baledweyn to Raskamboni. What would you do?

Remember this is not a totally far fetched scenario. It actually happened. An Islamist movement pierced through us (divided Habargidir at the time, point conceded) and were stopped if I am not mistaken in Bandiiradley.

How would you organize Hawadle and Habargidir if you were to make the shots for us. Who else would you enlist and why?


...

Galmudug was reaction of HG warlords losing xamar fo al shabaab and that's why it's not a true federal initiative to unite the whole HG under one entity. HG factions of xamar just moved to there and each established its autonomous authority in there. The first were sacad they had a meeting in south GLK for two months warning about maxaakimta expanding into their territory and then agreed to elect someone instead of being under the warlord qaybdiid. They elected maxamed kiimiko who is a great diplomat this has saved sacad from maxaakimta. After the ethiopian invation qaybdiid returned with his militias and entered cadoodo acting as a unifying military leader this has caused a saleebaan and cayr backlash. Saleebaan then established their own authority who was an ally of al shabaab against the ceyr ahlusunna who also invaded cadaado once. After ethiopia left and sh Sharif was selected we had in hiiraan a pro tfg admin for a year but after the killing of omar hashi and 70 odayaal we lost the traditional authority. Were were the only HAG region that had a mix of maxaakimta, politicians, ugaaska. For example cumar hashi was leading the war by himself while other regions only had islamists so ethiopia left baladweyne in November 2008 before xamar too months bc there was no political vacuum. General mukhtar was the army leader, dabageed and laqanyo and ex admin were under the protection of the ugaas so for a year we had this pro tfg admin even sharif visited baladweyne with omar hashi. Garguurte said now in baladweyne I'm sorry for clashing with ugaas hassan bc there is no other HAG region I can visit I was banned from baydhabo, cadaado but I'm I'm here in baladweyne bc of the ugaas protection. Our SNA is very tribal so they took off their dress and protected him as ciidamada beesha. I was in hiiraan and xamar last year and I can tell you al shabab are finish as ideology but people speacially in xamar and shabeelooyinka fear the govt more than al Shabaab but once the governance is fixed, soldiers get paid, justice us upheld and not only the msrnigalized clans are punished then people will be a pro SFG and al Shabaab will disappear.

wadnahadhiiga wrote: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:01 am @ Sahal, these People you talking to MX have little or no land in Somalia its a fact, they live in Border between Ethiopia and Somalia Kenya, no point of arguing don't respond them back.

the only thing that make them relevant today is farmaajo it starts him and ends him.

yes Galmudug is all about HG(president, PM, capital) bc mx live in the border not on the center. They have gedo but JL is about kablalax and the money from the kismaayo port made gedo divided into three entities but the mx are stronger in the federal govt because of HAG. I have a thread about how murursade rose to power people think they came via farmaajo but it's the other way. After CCC insisted to allocate some of the IC funds to PL, unukaleh got angry and said we need another darod "oo muqaayad garoowe ka furayn)
Mj and abgaal were cooperating until federalism appeared bc they dhared one muqaayad in xamar before that

Main khilaaf point was pojects like boosaaso airport this projects was started by ccc and faroole and when ccc was back he finished it but was implemented after faroole left power. So sh abdulkadir who was saleebaan the interior minister brought his seedi saaciid and yuusuf caynte, sharif's info minister and adviser abdikarim jaamac a dhulbahante who had murursade stepfather and now heads their academy city university and machado's al kawnayn owned by professor abdullahi bariise they brought farmaajo to Sharif. Afyare elmi and abdinur shiikh sh who are the ala sheekh of hawadle have supported farmaajo. Sharif was close to appoint saaciid until afyare told him is in cahoots with the ahlusunna ahmed abdisalan a man Sharif feared him so much. The proof is saaciid appointing abdidislan for AU . This is how farmaajo became a PM. Him and Sharif met before with abdikarim jaamac and Abdi ceynte during his visit in the US. Ceynte and jaamac and farmaajo welcomed him so he said oh the nice guy he has no qabiil mind I need him fuck plrs!
https://mogadishuairport.com/puntland/

But if farmaajo goes mx will disappear another 30 years bc they got exposed kkkkk

Farmaajo have invested in this he has no qabiil mind and then some HAGistssaid let's make him president and take the PM post. That's the reality of farmaajo.

Sorry no hard feelings towards mx as clan I'm just starting what's obvious wich is being preferred by HAG bc they have no regional interests and this why now kheyre and fahad yasin forced them to deal with madoobe bc OG have wider interests in kenya.