The shabaab fight is fake

[Gubbet]

Burgeesoole! A forest in the middle of the worst drought in East Africa in 40 years; what a crown jewel.





Raqo, the diamond of the Hawd. The largest set of balli and tog anywhere north of the Shabelle River. Gleams green even in the worst drought in Somali territories in 40 years.






Pulling up water from one of the only few permanent, deep water wells from Dhagaxbuur to Hobyo at Raqo! Yours truly

[Gubbet]

[sahal80]

Kees, forget about the laangaabka xawaadle that nigga is happy that culusow named a xawaadle as an advisor. to him that is like winning the world cup and i honestly don't blame him.

anyway as for your salebaan point. forget salebaan even iidoor where allowed to graze in MX lands in ethiopia and galgaduud/mudug due the the drought. by allah's mercy everywhere else was abaar and it only rained where MX settle from saaxo to south of shilaabo to balananbale all the way to south werder and south og gelaadi we are taling about land that is width 80km and length almost 200km. anyway every somali including your gaajo salebaan where allowed to come in with their animals. only cayr where refused.

when the abaar finished wagardhac asked you to return only for you to say no then you attacked wagardhac. not only did they destroy you they pushed you further to where the actual line was and killed over 20 of you

"La taliyahaas" waa nin Hirshabelle hoos joogto oo dhisaya adigaha Mahad Salaad baad hoos joogtaa for Gedo affairs, Galmudug iska hilmaan yes asxaan iyi samafal ee Caabudwaaq iyo balanbale ku joogaan


what laandheere you r talking about? Gun aad ka tahay Galmudug iyo Jubalabd iyo Daarood. maxamuud sayid waxaa JL uga awood badan lugudheere oo yiri JL xirirka dawlada uma jarin intaan la gaarin madoobe taas soo gunimo maaha?

CBBna waa chihuahua within Hawiye house not mashruuc daarood. hadaad laandheera tahay sidii Farmaajo u baxay mx lama maqlin lamana arag waxaa moodaa CBBdooda jufo Abgaal ah wallahi billahi hawiyaha waaba nooga dhawdihiin sidaad ugu milanteed waxaad u barateen balaqii yaraa ee 4.5 iyo magaca daarood idinku siin jireen war Sida MJ iyo OG niman maamul leh oo wax diidi kara oo dhul xiran kara noqda inta Mahad Salaad saf ugu jirtaan maalin walbe oo ka dhexbaxdaan dhuusada Galmaax iyo Daauud ood Xassan Sheikh u moodaan inaad uga dhaw dihiin . hawiye inaad ka dhex qaraabataan ma ahane awood kale ma lihidin miyaa?. aniga aa Abgaal iska dhicinaya ka waran ayagoo dawladii heesta waana kaaga af iyo dhul iyo dhaqan dhawahay mr Galmaax


sidaas Hassan Sh laguma rido ee JL ka rid ma xiran kartaa? ma adiga Mahad Salaad safka ugu jira? barre hiiraale, janan, fartaag

aniga Hirshabelle aan isticmaalayaa waaka hassan Sh qoono hoosgeeyay Asagoo guudlaawe caynaya ninka aad heli karin meesha aad dhuuso wacbuudan Abgaal dhex jiiftid

Sida threadkaan ku tusanayo waxaad ka baqeysaa in Saleebaan ka hubeeyo maadama Caabudwaaq kaa qabsadeen Xawaadlana Abgaal aa ka baqaya ka waran "in la hubeeyo" ayagoo dawlad ah
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 3707576748

[Gubbet]

sahal80, who is currently on your ignore list, made this post.
Display this post.

What a negative and truly unpleasant human being. Coming back to the forum and there is not a single post written by this individual I found informative, was worth the read, or was interesting if for anything else. He is just resentful; that's it.

[Kees70]

Kees, forget about the laangaabka xawaadle that nigga is happy that culusow named a xawaadle as an advisor. to him that is like winning the world cup and i honestly don't blame him.

anyway as for your salebaan point. forget salebaan even iidoor where allowed to graze in MX lands in ethiopia and galgaduud/mudug due the the drought. by allah's mercy everywhere else was abaar and it only rained where MX settle from saaxo to south of shilaabo to balananbale all the way to south werder and south og gelaadi we are taling about land that is width 80km and length almost 200km. anyway every somali including your gaajo salebaan where allowed to come in with their animals. only cayr where refused.

when the abaar finished wagardhac asked you to return only for you to say no then you attacked wagardhac. not only did they destroy you they pushed you further to where the actual line was and killed over 20 of you

"La taliyahaas" waa nin Hirshabelle hoos joogto oo dhisaya adigaha Mahad Salaad baad hoos joogtaa for Gedo affairs, Galmudug iska hilmaan yes asxaan iyi samafal ee Caabudwaaq iyo balanbale ku joogaan


what laandheere you r talking about? Gun aad ka tahay Galmudug iyo Jubalabd iyo Daarood. maxamuud sayid waxaa JL uga awood badan lugudheere oo yiri JL xirirka dawlada uma jarin intaan la gaarin madoobe taas soo gunimo maaha?

CBBna waa chihuahua within Hawiye house not mashruuc daarood. hadaad laandheera tahay sidii Farmaajo u baxay mx lama maqlin lamana arag waxaa moodaa CBBdooda jufo Abgaal ah wallahi billahi hawiyaha waaba nooga dhawdihiin sidaad ugu milanteed waxaad u barateen balaqii yaraa ee 4.5 iyo magaca daarood idinku siin jireen war Sida MJ iyo OG niman maamul leh oo wax diidi kara oo dhul xiran kara noqda inta Mahad Salaad saf ugu jirtaan maalin walbe oo ka dhexbaxdaan dhuusada Galmaax iyo Daauud ood Xassan Sheikh u moodaan inaad uga dhaw dihiin . hawiye inaad ka dhex qaraabataan ma ahane awood kale ma lihidin miyaa?. aniga aa Abgaal iska dhicinaya ka waran ayagoo dawladii heesta waana kaaga af iyo dhul iyo dhaqan dhawahay mr Galmaax
::

sidaas Hassan Sh laguma rido ee JL ka rid ma xiran kartaa? ma adiga Mahad Salaad safka ugu jira? barre hiiraale, janan, fartaag

aniga Hirshabelle aan isticmaalayaa waaka hassan Sh qoono hoosgeeyay Asagoo guudlaawe caynaya ninka aad heli karin meesha aad dhuuso wacbuudan Abgaal dhex jiiftid

Sida threadkaan ku tusanayo waxaad ka baqeysaa in Saleebaan ka hubeeyo maadama Caabudwaaq kaa qabsadeen Xawaadlana Abgaal aa ka baqaya ka waran "in la hubeeyo" ayagoo dawlad ah
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 3707576748

kkkkkk walahi Mx have the misfortunes to neighbor HGs, of all Hawiye clans its Beesha HGs who are the most racist and anti-daroods, we have been fighting daroods for over 100 of years and it will never change in the foreseeable future.

And also what i find most amusing is that the mx cbbs are begging other Hawiyes and even praying for farmaajos return when we all know both those prayers wont change their situation on the ground in Central Somalia, as we can tell by History that HGs aggression towards Western frontier wont stop until they penetrate and settle fully in Somali Galbeed DDSI.

Mxs future is in Gedo.

[sahal80]

kkkkk markaan leeyahay HAG ha tashato waa tan oo kale

Sheikh CBB iyo Nomand ajd behind them Al haalik Farmaajo Waxay diidayaan in Hawiye Al Shabaab iska kiciyaan inleen dulsaar Farmaajo oo maalin iyo bar Xamar ka qabsadeen wuxuu ka baqayay ineey hawiye meesha ugu galaan hubkii gaashaamanaa ee uu Gedo ku daldalay uu ka ilaaliyay sida Gen koronto sheegay

Maanta HG iyo XL ka qeylinayaan waxaa xataa shaki iiga jiraa in kuwo xassan Sh ku cidka ah ee Farmaajo nagu dhex beeray ay ayaga gadaal ka riixayaan. la taliye guudlaawe iyo Xildhibaan waceysle oo NISA ah iyo Markabkii Galmaax ooy fuuleen its not a coincidence!

labo sabab ay u diidanyihiin: Ayagoo rabay inay xabasho kugu qabsadaan itoobiya iyo eriteea ma ogola in dhulka hawiye amisom ka xor noqdo si ay dawladahaas u soo ka xeestaan

2- HG aad ay uga baqaan waa inay Al Shabaab ku mashquuliyaan oo iska sii jeediyaan. imagin HG state oo ilaa ceelbuur iyo ceeldheere isku tolan? wallahi waa sujuudayaan
https://fb.watch/fqHh4-Nxn5/

[original dervish]

Sahal.......you may have to chase old dude from snet once again.

[sahal80]

Sahal.......you may have to chase old dude from snet once again.

asagaa igu soo noqdey markaasuu ku leeyahay i put him in my ignored list in my response to Nomand

Diinta islaamka ma ogola humilation marka ma jirto sabab aan ula qabsado. maalintii doorashada ayaa repost gareeyay kunkiisii thread1000 aabo farmaajo waa soo noqonaa aabo farmaajo first round uu ku soo baxaa aababi farmaajo aabo farmaajo. lacagtii Qatar 59 cod ka badan waa ku heli waayey in leen shaley no more Abgaal hawiyaa abuureen oo maanta tuurey

[Murax]

The truth is, until Hawiye liberate their regions Hiiraan, Galgaduud, etc the facts are on Nomands side that this fight is fake. 6 months from now if it’s still status quo, Nomand will have every right to bump this thread, and troll.


It’s crazy how much territory Al Shaydaan has in Hawiye lands. Reer Gedo cleared AS from Doolow to Baardheere all the way back in like 2015. For people that don’t know that’s from the Ethiopian border to the border of M Jubba.

[Kees70]

Sahal.......you may have to chase old dude from snet once again.

asagaa igu soo noqdey markaasuu ku leeyahay i put him in my ignored list in my response to Nomand

Diinta islaamka ma ogola humilation marka ma jirto sabab aan ula qabsado. maalintii doorashada ayaa repost gareeyay kunkiisii thread1000 aabo farmaajo waa soo noqonaa aabo farmaajo first round uu ku soo baxaa aababi farmaajo aabo farmaajo. lacagtii Qatar 59 cod ka badan waa ku heli waayey in leen shaley no more Abgaal hawiyaa abuureen oo maanta tuurey

walahi nacaskii mooga farmaajo never stood a chance, here is Rooble, Hamza and all the HAGs planning post farmaajo government during the election

[sahal80]

The truth is, until Hawiye liberate their regions Hiiraan, Galgaduud, etc the facts are on Nomands side that this fight is fake. 6 months from now if it’s still status quo, Nomand will have every right to bump this thread, and troll.


It’s crazy how much territory Al Shaydaan has in Hawiye lands. Reer Gedo cleared AS from Doolow to Baardheere all the way back in like 2015. For people that don’t know that’s from the Ethiopian border to the border of M Jubba.

mot according to your Al Shabaab allies. mx Have a wall of Ethiopia and Kenya two Amisom countries yet they have no much control on Gedo. Hawadle controls 180km oo buuroley ah without Ethiopian wall and next to Al shabaab strongholds in galgaduud and mille shabelle according to Al shabaab map

[Murax]

Sahal,

2010-2011 Gedo was the VERY first front against Al Shaydaan. Gedo districts like B Xaawo, Luuq were being liberated by joint Dawlad, Ahlu Sunnah while Beledweyne, Hiiraan, HG land and even most of Xamar were still AS.



Lakin right now you wrote a major check. Come 6 months, a year if it’s same situation what will you say then? That’s the question.

[Nomand]

Sahal,

The last 15 years in somalia is what I call bullshit years. It is years in which clans like xawaadle who during the height of the civil war could not even rule beledweyne somehow where given leadership over hiirshabeele. While for example clans like marehan have been limited by foreign powers like kenya/ethiopia/UAE. Without any al shabab or any AMISOM marehan will do what marehan does is rule jubbaland from kismaayo to dolow. So no 4.5 and AMISOM has limited me while it has benefited small clans.

Kees, I see you chose to ignore my response and instead of looking at the facts

1) yout gaajo people where welcomed after you begged to be let in

2) once the abaar was gone and you refused to leave you where massacred.

[Nomand]

The truth is, until Hawiye liberate their regions Hiiraan, Galgaduud, etc the facts are on Nomands side that this fight is fake. 6 months from now if it’s still status quo, Nomand will have every right to bump this thread, and troll.


It’s crazy how much territory Al Shaydaan has in Hawiye lands. Reer Gedo cleared AS from Doolow to Baardheere all the way back in like 2015. For people that don’t know that’s from the Ethiopian border to the border of M Jubba.

Culusow is arming hawiye that is a clear fact. However what will happen is pretty simple to predict.

1) majority of the weapons hassan will give to hawiye they will sell it to Al shabaab.

2) hawiye clans will fight amongst themselves and their neighbours. Mx and puntland and this is where hawiye will lose even more of the weapons given to them. By the end they will have nothing left.

In the end, hassan sheikh would have ticked another task given to him by UAE (destruction of somalia)

[Gubbet]

Sahal,

2010-2011 Gedo was the VERY first front against Al Shaydaan. Gedo districts like B Xaawo, Luuq were being liberated by joint Dawlad, Ahlu Sunnah while Beledweyne, Hiiraan, HG land and even most of Xamar were still AS.



Lakin right now you wrote a major check. Come 6 months, a year if it’s same situation what will you say then? That’s the question.

I am afraid if anything changes, it is more predictable Al Shabaab will expand in Galgaduud and Hiiraan. It is mind boggling how outwardly tribalized the current movements are. For example, Al Shabaab's pincer movements around Matabaan and Baxdo are not random movements. It shows both Sacad and Cayr have been gradually moving towards Al Shababization directed towards Cadaado and northern Beled-Weyne. The solution to fighting "Al Shabaab" is reconciliation and incentivizing the "lineage groups" manipulated to join cause with them to abandon them for real possibility of more fair political process.

Sacad has for sometime now been courted in suthwestern Hobyo district as a result of resentment towards Qoorqoor and Saleebaan expansion towards Hobyo. The area between Ceel-buur and Matabaan has seen the group known as "Cayrka koonfureed" (who were never ideologically Ahlu Sunnah like reer Ayaanle) definitively tie their fortunes with Al Shabaab to secure access to grazing movements in Northern Beled-Weyne district just as they secured grazing in Ceel-buur.

It is like an 8 ball with the two circles around Cadaado and Beled-Weyne.

Tribalizing Al Shabaab is the complete opposite to what one should be doing. If you notice in Gedo and Bakool, there is really no incentivized "lineage-groups" that can be pointed out as "Shabaab." There is no "Murusade" or "Duduble" for example because of the work done within for sometime to deincentivize "lineage-groups" arising who can be manipulated by Al Shabaab. It is also in their advantage they are relatively homogeneous or cohesive as political units. This is the opposite in mindbogglingly diverse and fractured political units. Not only is the fight against Al Shabaab on more difficult circumstances, but the response is even the complete opposite of how it should be handled.

When you see sitting members of Parliament from groups now being called "Al Shabaab" clans (Ceel-dheer or Ceel-buur) actively and in stark terms denouncing the fight "against" Al Shabaab as fights "against" their clans, this is a direct outcome of the way those claiming to fight Al Shabaab have terribly prejudiced the fight against Al Shabaab to their own detriment.

I foresee these eventualities.

1. Beled-Weyne town will become like Kismaayo town. Even the outskirts of town which are now contested will become definitive Al Shabaab territory. Only the town will be held as a garrison town reinforced by Ethiopian troops.

2. I believe it is possible Cadaado will fall. It is simply not strategic (for example not located on the border like Beled-Weyne) or capable enough of standing on it's own against Al Shabaab. The pressure will become even more acute the more Sacad fall to Shabaab.

3. I believe both Caabudwaaq and Dhusamareb will become secured by Ethiopian troops who will also attempt to rekindle the Ahlu Sunnah alliance between Balanbale, Xeraale, and Dhusamareb. I believe also this will turn into Caabudwaaq becoming a permanent base for Ethiopia in central Somalia ala Dollow, Gedo.

4. Finally, I believe it is possible Gaalkacyo town will become host to Ethiopian troops. The more Sacad, now motivated by their political resentment towards Saleebaan, become drafted to become as acquiescing as the Ceelbuur "clans," and particularly if and when Cadaado falls, I believe there will be a sudden agreement between Puntland and Ethiopia to garrison Gaalkacyo town as a defensive wall.

Shabaab is not being defeated. Shabaab is going to be contained, but the areas "now" being contested will fall.

And this will occur because the people fighting them now would have severely prejudiced the fight against them to their own detriment.