[quote="Gedo_Boy"] The reason Tigres are in Somalia is due to the absence of a central authority who could project enough muscle to defend the country.[/quote]
Melez said he's in Somalia because Somalis were threat to him, are you his interpreter now?
KISMAYO:DISARMAMENT PROGAM STARTS..
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This General Forum is for general discussions from daily chitchat to more serious discussions among Somalinet Forums members. Please do not use it as your Personal Message center (PM). If you want to contact a particular person or a group of people, please use the PM feature. If you want to contact the moderators, pls PM them. If you insist leaving a public message for the mods or other members, it will be deleted.
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Alluring
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[quote="dhuusa_deer"][quote="Gedo_Boy"] The reason Tigres are in Somalia is due to the absence of a central authority who could project enough muscle to defend the country.[/quote]
Melez said he's in Somalia because Somalis were threat to him, are you his interpreter now?[/quote]
Meles was bascially raised by Siad Barre. That guy is DAROOD, he even says it.
Melez said he's in Somalia because Somalis were threat to him, are you his interpreter now?[/quote]
Meles was bascially raised by Siad Barre. That guy is DAROOD, he even says it.
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dhuusa_deer
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dhuusa,
You raise some good points about Hawiye concerns of disarmament. That's a legitimate concern. In order to alleviate a legitimate concern, it was my opinion that instead of disarmament initally, it might work better to prevent the public display of weapons and to keep them home. However, Xamar is the Somali capital. Living in & around the Somali capital has distinct advantages (economic, among & above others) and there's also another side to that which is the fact that disarmament would most likely start there. It's a double-edged sword.
So, having gotten that out of the way, let's move on the ICU.
Due to some linear combination of ignorance, zealous extremism, political inflexibility & naivete, the ICU did not play their cards properly.
That's a flaw w/ the ICU, not the TFG. The ICU started flexing military muscle first, not the TFG.
Whether or not the TFG intended to flex their military muscle at a later date is not the question. But the fact is that the TFG, love 'em or hate 'em, played their cards in a more sophisticated fashion than did the ICU.
When you have players in the ICU who say things like: "We will pray Eid in Addis...." you know what that does? That creates a pretext, and not just propoganda, but actual quotes & soundbytes that can be used against you.
It's true the ICU might have had enemies, but if you shoot yourself in the foot, you might be your own worst enemy.
The ICU went on a military expansion and downplayed the importance of dialouge, even saying things like: "We will send the TFG fleeing from Baidoa w/ their bags".....................
That was their modus operandi.........can you fault the TFG for playing the same game?
They had foreign allies, the TFG had foreign allies..............
You raise some good points about Hawiye concerns of disarmament. That's a legitimate concern. In order to alleviate a legitimate concern, it was my opinion that instead of disarmament initally, it might work better to prevent the public display of weapons and to keep them home. However, Xamar is the Somali capital. Living in & around the Somali capital has distinct advantages (economic, among & above others) and there's also another side to that which is the fact that disarmament would most likely start there. It's a double-edged sword.
So, having gotten that out of the way, let's move on the ICU.
Due to some linear combination of ignorance, zealous extremism, political inflexibility & naivete, the ICU did not play their cards properly.
That's a flaw w/ the ICU, not the TFG. The ICU started flexing military muscle first, not the TFG.
Whether or not the TFG intended to flex their military muscle at a later date is not the question. But the fact is that the TFG, love 'em or hate 'em, played their cards in a more sophisticated fashion than did the ICU.
When you have players in the ICU who say things like: "We will pray Eid in Addis...." you know what that does? That creates a pretext, and not just propoganda, but actual quotes & soundbytes that can be used against you.
It's true the ICU might have had enemies, but if you shoot yourself in the foot, you might be your own worst enemy.
The ICU went on a military expansion and downplayed the importance of dialouge, even saying things like: "We will send the TFG fleeing from Baidoa w/ their bags".....................
That was their modus operandi.........can you fault the TFG for playing the same game?
They had foreign allies, the TFG had foreign allies..............
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xoogSADE14
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xayraan kale
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dhuusa_deer
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Gedoboy,
You're looking the situation through the wrong lens -- TFG, peace, law and order, disarmament, Somalia etc. While they're laudable plans, unfortunately they don't form the political currancy of present Somali POlitics. Instead it's clanism. Any and every problem has to be assessed through clan prism. This is why I say disarming Rer Mogadishu while Darods and others are left armed will be viewed as attack on Hawiyes. Puntland (read: darood) soldiers already fought Hawiye in the recent ICU vs TFG war, Puntland soldiers comprise sizeable segment of current TFG forces and there's plans to dispatch more Puntland soldiers to Hawiyelands under the cover of "TFG" to disarm Hawiye. One doesn't have to be knee-jerk alarmist to see these developments as against Hawiye.
This arguement that Mogadishu and other parts of Southern Somalia have to be disarmed to achieve peace is a ruse. History is witness. Peace isn't achieved through disarmament but through political negotiation. I cited for you M. Dheere as an example of how smooth and unproblematic disarming warlord militias can be. It took a political decision by these warlords to disband their militia. If some militia are holding out, their disarmament should be done through negotiation. Never by force! Once political disputes are settled, competent judicial system and decent police force are established, people will on their own disarm. The government has no business going door-to-door disarming people when they haven't earned the authority and right yet.
About the TFG playing their cards intelligently, I disagree. This entity was clueless, hapless, inept, seriously flawed and totally in over their heads from the getgo. They got a shot in the arm from the ETHIO army and all of the sudden talk like they got new mandate from Somalis. This entity was flawed from the start and nothing short of complete overhaul will salvage it. Even that is too hopeful cuz Somalis are clanist. So long as clanism is alive central government will never be viable option.
You're looking the situation through the wrong lens -- TFG, peace, law and order, disarmament, Somalia etc. While they're laudable plans, unfortunately they don't form the political currancy of present Somali POlitics. Instead it's clanism. Any and every problem has to be assessed through clan prism. This is why I say disarming Rer Mogadishu while Darods and others are left armed will be viewed as attack on Hawiyes. Puntland (read: darood) soldiers already fought Hawiye in the recent ICU vs TFG war, Puntland soldiers comprise sizeable segment of current TFG forces and there's plans to dispatch more Puntland soldiers to Hawiyelands under the cover of "TFG" to disarm Hawiye. One doesn't have to be knee-jerk alarmist to see these developments as against Hawiye.
This arguement that Mogadishu and other parts of Southern Somalia have to be disarmed to achieve peace is a ruse. History is witness. Peace isn't achieved through disarmament but through political negotiation. I cited for you M. Dheere as an example of how smooth and unproblematic disarming warlord militias can be. It took a political decision by these warlords to disband their militia. If some militia are holding out, their disarmament should be done through negotiation. Never by force! Once political disputes are settled, competent judicial system and decent police force are established, people will on their own disarm. The government has no business going door-to-door disarming people when they haven't earned the authority and right yet.
About the TFG playing their cards intelligently, I disagree. This entity was clueless, hapless, inept, seriously flawed and totally in over their heads from the getgo. They got a shot in the arm from the ETHIO army and all of the sudden talk like they got new mandate from Somalis. This entity was flawed from the start and nothing short of complete overhaul will salvage it. Even that is too hopeful cuz Somalis are clanist. So long as clanism is alive central government will never be viable option.
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dhuusa_deer
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[quote="dhuusa_deer"]Gedoboy,
About the TFG playing their cards intelligently, I disagree. This entity was clueless, hapless, inept, seriously flawed and totally in over their heads from the getgo.[/quote]
Dhuusa,
The forceful disarmament of the opposition is just one of the spoils of war. The ICU was doing the SAME EXACT THING, i.e disarming the opposition they attacked & fought. Notwithstanding leadership, the TFG & the ICU were quite similar in terms of their makeup.
In fact, as far as top-level leadership goes, the TFG is far more evenly represented than were the ICU. That would explain ppl like MDheere disarming.
If you look at it, there is very little difference in what the ICU did and what the TFG is now doing. The ICU made the miserable calculation of ruling out meaningful negotiations and insisted on a military settlement, which they received.
They should have taken into calculation all the factors that could have been amassed against them. However, for one reason or another, they were deluded in their military assessments and even their Arab allies began to distance themselves when they refused to negotiate meaningfully.
I wasn't talking about the TFG being politically sophisticated in general, but vis a vis the ICU they were sophisticated.
I lost an uncle who was working w/ the ICU, but I blame the ICU for their hasty escalation & irresponsibility.
About the TFG playing their cards intelligently, I disagree. This entity was clueless, hapless, inept, seriously flawed and totally in over their heads from the getgo.[/quote]
Dhuusa,
The forceful disarmament of the opposition is just one of the spoils of war. The ICU was doing the SAME EXACT THING, i.e disarming the opposition they attacked & fought. Notwithstanding leadership, the TFG & the ICU were quite similar in terms of their makeup.
In fact, as far as top-level leadership goes, the TFG is far more evenly represented than were the ICU. That would explain ppl like MDheere disarming.
If you look at it, there is very little difference in what the ICU did and what the TFG is now doing. The ICU made the miserable calculation of ruling out meaningful negotiations and insisted on a military settlement, which they received.
They should have taken into calculation all the factors that could have been amassed against them. However, for one reason or another, they were deluded in their military assessments and even their Arab allies began to distance themselves when they refused to negotiate meaningfully.
I wasn't talking about the TFG being politically sophisticated in general, but vis a vis the ICU they were sophisticated.
I lost an uncle who was working w/ the ICU, but I blame the ICU for their hasty escalation & irresponsibility.
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fagash_killer
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[quote="dhuusa_deer"][quote="fagash_killer"] but like i said somaliland&puntland got atleast a goverment and a securtity that can stop it.[quote]
History doesn't start this morning or last week. Prior to establishing peace and governance both regions underwent bloody civil wars. Peace, law and order, governance were realised in both regions ONLY after outstanding political disagreements were settled. Same has to be done in Somalia or else we're setting ourselves up for another prolonged period of unrest.
haa waa ruunti and that was my point same has to be done in somalia. yes both region underwent bloody cival wars peace and order but in the south their is no legal goverment thats the difference between those regions.
[quote]why they are the goverment of somalia i mean how can they say somaliland and puntland must do that if they didnt disarmed reer moqadisho kismayo barava etc?[quote]
Somaliland = Isaaqland; Puntland = daroodland; Mogadishu = Hawiyeland... why disarm Hawiye while darods and isaaqs keep their arms?[/quote]
who told you that moqadisho is hawiyeland moqadisho is the home of darood hawiye isaaq cuss hawiye are the majorty now doesnt really mean that its their land ore something .same with somaliland and puntland but in somaliland and puntland did atleast all clans who live their joined the goverment same with puntland although some different clans dont recognise it and thus dont they want to be part of those states.and i dont think really that the tfg got the same views as you ore else we are back to square one
History doesn't start this morning or last week. Prior to establishing peace and governance both regions underwent bloody civil wars. Peace, law and order, governance were realised in both regions ONLY after outstanding political disagreements were settled. Same has to be done in Somalia or else we're setting ourselves up for another prolonged period of unrest.
haa waa ruunti and that was my point same has to be done in somalia. yes both region underwent bloody cival wars peace and order but in the south their is no legal goverment thats the difference between those regions.
[quote]why they are the goverment of somalia i mean how can they say somaliland and puntland must do that if they didnt disarmed reer moqadisho kismayo barava etc?[quote]
Somaliland = Isaaqland; Puntland = daroodland; Mogadishu = Hawiyeland... why disarm Hawiye while darods and isaaqs keep their arms?[/quote]
who told you that moqadisho is hawiyeland moqadisho is the home of darood hawiye isaaq cuss hawiye are the majorty now doesnt really mean that its their land ore something .same with somaliland and puntland but in somaliland and puntland did atleast all clans who live their joined the goverment same with puntland although some different clans dont recognise it and thus dont they want to be part of those states.and i dont think really that the tfg got the same views as you ore else we are back to square one
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