2030 world's economic prediction

[PrinceDaadi]

Gurey is right, India is going no where due to their form of governance, India cannot execute plans the speed which does no do they have the will.

[LeJusticier]

Mexico at n.o 9 ??????
WOW with the way its going drug business down there is BOOMING.

mexico is actually a highly developed and modern industrial nation.

I didn't know that Mexico will become one of first world country. When it come to Mexico all I see was drug war.


Le justicier

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

The smartest things China has been doing is manipulating their currency to keep wages artificially low, which is something India also does.

Its not smart, its a necessity in this world of the dollar hegemony.
Deng xiao ping and his associates envisioned an export led growth of just 10-15 years and then concentration of internal growth.
too many people made allot of money from exports and used it to derail the plan.
The turn inwards as planned is back in action.

Gurey, I know the east Asian model is unrealistic for somalis but what else is there?

[James Dahl]

I actually visited China in the late 90s, India is not as far behind as you think.

Suppressing wages has meant that the average Chinese has been slow to receive the benefits of all that economic growth indeed.

[Advo]

Do not rely too much on these predictions, just the assumption of some guy with a calculator punching numbers in. One thing the market teaches us is things are truly unpredictable.

[gurey25]

I actually visited China in the late 90s, India is not as far behind as you think.

Suppressing wages has meant that the average Chinese has been slow to receive the benefits of all that economic growth indeed.

interesting have been to india as well? can you compare the two?
and where did you go in china? was it Hongkong? thats not china.
Was it the pearl river delta, like shenzen or shanghai or beijing.

If you want to compare infrastructure you need to compare cities that are open to the rest of the world and are a show case for development like
Bangalore for example and shenzen.
late 90's Bangalore the best that india has to offer is a slum by the standards of late 90's shenzen.

You cannot compare Bombay to Shanghai even 90's shanghai, Bombay or mumbai as it is known today was shit back then and is shit right now.

When you compare large cities like dehli and beijing the difference is stark forget about Chenai/Madras and Chonquin.

even before the opening up of china in the early 80's it still has better rail connection between main cities, the streets where full of bicycle and nobody could afford cars, but the cities where clean compared to india.
Look at indicators like GNP percapita from 1980 china was twice indias even back then when it was starting to open up.

and lastly let me tell you what a collegue of mine when i was stationed in nigeria said about india.
now this was a well educated nigerian that i hired for my department, he came from a very poor background but got a scholarship to study.
He then worked in India briefly for and IT company. He found Bangalore to be a very good place to live a modern city and better than anything in Nigeria by far. But when he wanted to visit Dehli and visit the Taj Mahal he had to pass through the worst slums he has ever seen.
Comming from the worst nigerian slums as a kid, he found the indian slums to be scandalous.


I dont have a special affection for China, i have closer emotional and cultural links to India and i have travelled to India but not China,
was never interested in china.
I can see india has dropped the ball on development, the have a large pool of talent, they are neck to neck with china in the space race and are ahead in certain areas like cryogenic engines and avionics, but it could do more , china has a larger pool of trained people and can throw more resources at problems and push ahead like they have been doing. India has shown talent by producing better results with a smaller pool of scientists and engineers.

Developing to chinas level and at china speed is impossible in the current environment, they would not be able to use the same model because the time for export oriented growth has passed. Apart from the social /cultural and adminstative disadvantages India has ,
it has a bigger problem when it comes to ideology.
India's elite do no know where they are heading or what to do, they have ideological confusion and too many of them buy the bullshit they received when they did they economics degrees in the west.
Indians by and large have become believers while the china despite filling the business and economics schools of the west have return with a majority still agnostic when it comes to ideology.

[James Dahl]

I visited Beijing, Xian and Shanghai around 1998, they were at the time all soviet style crapholes. China does not even resemble itself from 15 years ago.

India's annual growth rate is 3.2%, which is very respectable. China's growth rate is so fast because they are still digging their way out of the damage of more than a century of wreck and ruin. Let me tell you the story of China.

China is traditionally the richest country on earth, and has been for the majority of human history. The apex of China's economic development until modern times was the Ming Dynasty. The Ming was founded by a peasant rebel leader named Zhu Yuanzhang, who led a diverse rebel movement to defeat the Mongol Empire. From his background, he had traveled all across China and had seen firsthand the problems ordinary people faced. When he became emperor, he enacted a number of laws that protected ordinary people from predatory magnates and powerful landlords. He built the Great Wall of China to keep out the Mongols and under the Ming dynasty, China surged past the rest of the world economically, technologically and militarily. The Great Ming had a gigantic fleet of massive ships equipped with highly advanced weapons. Their civil administration was technocratic, selecting the best people to administer the country by standardized exams, rather than hereditary positions or nepotism.

Even today, China has still not reached the level of cultivated land under the Ming, though of course agriculture is more efficient today.

What brought down the Great Ming was a chieftain named Nurhaci of the Gioro clan of the Jurchen, a nomadic people who lived to the north of China. Much like Temujin had done four centuries earlier, he defeated and subjugated all the other Jurchen clans, and other related people who lived nearby. This conglomeration of peoples would be named "Manchu" by Nurhaci's son and successor. Nurhaci then subjugated the Mongols and established a huge military system called the Eight Banners (basically dividing up the steppe populations into Banners, which functioned like army groups like a mongol Orda). He invaded China but the Ming fought them off with their superior artillery, but he managed to take over a small part of northern Ming territory and that way he got his hands on Ming technology like artillery. Using China's own weapons against it, and with a massive barbarian army they broke through the great wall and swarmed into China, just like the Mongols had done 300 years previously, and established the Qing dynasty.

The great Ming administration the Qing decided to save for the day to day running of the empire, but mandated that half of the administrators be Manchus, undercutting the meritocracy, and also created a new layer of authority above the meritocratic administration of Manchu nobility, basically meaning the feudal aristocracy made the important decisions. Nepotism and corruption ruled through the Qing's iron fisted rule, enforced by the Eight Banners of steppe nomads who terrorized the populace. Eventually though, over-use of the Eight Banners led to them being essentially permanently stationed in China, where they lost their steppe lifestyle. Also the development of firearms made steppe nomads somewhat militarily obsolete, so rebellions started being able to stand up the Qing. The rebellions began in 1795 and would not stop until 1911, for 200 years the Imperial government struggled to maintain their rule only to be overthrown and the country dissolve into chaos that would not end until 1948, but Mao's economic and social experimentation would cause further chaos so ultimately China would not really have a chance to develop her national economy and become a rich country again until the 1978 reforms.

So think about that, the richest country on earth had not a few lost decades but 3 lost CENTURIES of economic development to catch up on. That is why China's economic growth is so fast.

[gurey25]

I visited Beijing, Xian and Shanghai around 1998, they were at the time all soviet style crapholes. China does not even resemble itself from 15 years ago.

soviet style craphole beats mega slum calcutta or mumbai anyday, even right now most of culcatta, Dehli, and Mumbai consist of the most terrible slums imaginable. If you transport todays inhabitants of these cities to 1975 beijng they would consider this soviet style hellhole an upgrade.
You lack perspective man !

He built the Great Wall of China to keep out the Mongols and under the Ming dynasty, China surged past the rest of the world economically, technologically and militarily. The Great Ming had a gigantic fleet of massive ships equipped with highly advanced weapons. Their civil administration was technocratic, selecting the best people to administer the country by standardized exams, rather than hereditary positions or nepotism.

The Hongwu emperor did not build the great wall, but refurbished it.
It was surprisingly started by the first emperor of the Chin, Jin Shi Hunag Ti during the chin dynasty 200 BC ~.
Marco polo talked about the great wall, lost of arab and Persian travelers wrote about the great wall in the 9th and 10th centuries.
But you are right the heights of the Ming dynasty specially during the reign of the third emperor Yongli was not surpassed , only Mughal India comes close in level of development and wealth a hundred years after the Ming Dynasty. But Southern Sung did reach close to Ming Levels 300 years earlier and were somewhat more technologically advanced. E,g the Fleet of Cheng He ships were a Southern Sung designed 300 years old but built to massive size and scale.
Souther sung also had coke coal for steel manufacture, they had the semblance of the assembly line, and their water wheel powered factories were as good as the best of the Islamic world before that part of the world went belly up in the 1200’s.
Before the spread of the Coal fired steam engine in the late 1700’s there was industrialization in Europe based on water wheel power and those designed were as good as those of Syria, Egypt and Andalus in the 1100’s and well as Southern Sung.

I agree with you that china was catching up for 300 years of lost growth and its natural resources and good government make it inevitable,
but how does this help your argument that india can catch up to China?
Cant you say the same about India? and 3.2 % is not comparable to 9% or the 13% china consistently pulled off.

Yes India can do what China did, but you do not understand how it happened. Development is actually a simply formula
you need to be able to avoid ideological confusion and stick to the successfull formula that every one apart from a few small open economies has done in the past. e.g HongKong, Netherlands and Switzerland.
Everyone else who is a developed country today has followed the formula to a T.

India main burden apart from misgovernment, and unstable politics is ideological confusion.
When Independence was achieved its planners were divided into 2 factions, those who wanted a command socialist economy and those who wanted a market economy, the compromise led to the stagnation of called the licence raj and decades of lost growth.
1991 and the opening up of the market they went to the other end of the spectrum , they are still confused.
You make a plan and stick to it. thats how you succeed.
This is how Japan did it, Taiwan and South Korea, and Singapore , and even Malaysia.