James Dahl wrote:I agree that Somaliland's people do and have fought hard for their freedom and even for their interests, but this will be different than war against Puntland or the National Army. First of all there is the Burco islamist faction of old AIAI that is found throughout Somaliland, despite the Somaliland Government's attempts to stamp it out. The leader of al-Shabaab is in fact one of these men.
Somaliland and Puntland are actually much more fertile ground for al-Shabaab than the south, circumstance alone led to the south being overrun by al-Shabaab. They had tried for decades in the north, and that is where AIAI's roots are, up north.
And that's the reason why. The army is not capable of defeating al-Shabaab without massive support from the people of Somaliland, but what if opinion is split? What if, while al-Shabaab is invading Somaliland, fifth column forces pop up in Somaliland? Somaliland would be faced with an insurgency as they face an invasion.
There are still many people who believe in "One nation, one state" for the Somali people in Somaliland, and they would support al-Shabaab. The Islamists would support al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab is probably the biggest threat to Somaliland since Siyad Barre.
Thats all well and true, James but you see there is a difference between AL itihad al islaam and alshbaab
there is a difference between the Union of Islamic courts and Alshabaab.
forget Burco which is islamist central, most of somalilands population are sympathetic towards what the west calls political islam.
Most Isaaq viewed the islamic courts positivley and supported the courts, but were still on the sidelines in 2006.
They were still confident in their local political developments .
Islam trumps all political and clan consideration for any muslims, if there is a genuine Islamic movement all opposing ideologies will
be pushed aside with little resistance.
The islamic courts with their extremely decentralized nature and adoption of xeer along with sharrica were the ideal solution for Somalia.
If they had been given time to consolidate and mature they would have succeeded everywhere in somalia, but sadly they were not.
Ethiopia and the west clearly understood what it represented. Realistically a successfull ICU in Somalia could have spread to the peacefull mulsim oromo like a virus.
My parents are from the old westernized elite of somalia, and i am pretty much westernized in outlook and education
but in a successfull ICU senario i would easily don an cimaamad and join, and so would most of my clan.
Now alshabaab on the other hand is extremist and out of the fold and quite alien.
Islamist in the North even Dhulbahante will be resistant to it.
Alshabaab cannot be exported but the idea of the Islamic union of courts can.
We are all basically muslim and a genuine islamic grassroots movement trumps clan, and nation(Somaliland included).
