Somali "government" releases fake population numbers, gets rediculed on social media

[libaaxyare]

the report is 90% accurate

[libaaxyare]

percentage nomad:

sanaag 65%
sool 57%
nugaal 54%
hiraan 49%
bakool 40%
galgaduud 38%
m-juba 36%
awdal 35%
gedo 28%
mudug 26%
l-juba 25%
bay 25%
togdheer 21%
waqooyi 21%
m-shabelle 19%
bari 19%
l-shabelle 13%
banadir 0%

somaliland = 34% nomad
puntland = 29% nomad
south somalia = 22% nomad

aljabardi al dhako Malaas, You think been nomad is like fake DNA snet propaganda and you think we have no eyes and will easily pass your propaganda fake pulls-hit about a report that is front of us?



Sanaag, Waqooyi Galbeed, Hiiraan, Awdal, Galgaduud. those are the top five for Nomad according to this report.

mixing up like indho sarcaad and putting up nuugaal and sool top and puting waqooyi galbeed and Hiiraan top nomads at the bottom wont change the facts. and then saying PL and SL and the rest of south while taking waqooyi out of their top place them making it like sool and sanaag scored because some of your jabardi people live there?

[Rambie]

This report is BS.
How can there is more nomads and rural population in Awdal than Toghdheer? (more Geeljire in Borama than Burco!)
So toghdhere is more urbanized than Awdal?
Where is the distribution of districts?
They just say "X is this Y is that"
FOH

[Itrah]

percentage nomad:

sanaag 65%
sool 57%
nugaal 54%
hiraan 49%
bakool 40%
galgaduud 38%
m-juba 36%
awdal 35%
gedo 28%
mudug 26%
l-juba 25%
bay 25%
togdheer 21%
waqooyi 21%
m-shabelle 19%
bari 19%
l-shabelle 13%
banadir 0%

somaliland = 34% nomad
puntland = 29% nomad
south somalia = 22% nomad

Sanaag, Waqooyi Galbeed, Hiiraan, Awdal, Galgaduud. those are the top five for Nomad according to this report.

Learn basic math. Those are ratios and not focused on mere quantity. China has more Muslims than Somalia, but overall Somalia is a more Islamic country. Similar logic!

As a percentage of the total Sool and Nugaal have more nomads than those you listed.

I used the numbers from here: https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/s ... nal%29.pdf

[eliteSomali]

I am more concerned with the total population of Somalia. 12mil? That is such a small number compared to countries that neighbor us. It is also quite alarming to know we cannot feed and provide basic necessities to such a small number of people. Another thing that this should reaffirm is that there is no need to fight over land anymore, there's more land than we need at 12 million.

[FarhanYare]

I am more concerned with the total population of Somalia. 12mil? That is such a small number compared to countries that neighbor us. It is also quite alarming to know we cannot feed and provide basic necessities to such a small number of people. Another thing that this should reaffirm is that there is no need to fight over land anymore, there's more land than we need at 12 million.

War dadkani waa imtixaan. I was actually thinking about this minus the " how they couldn't feed themselves" part. For people who breed like maxaa ka galay, 12million is a drop in the bucket considering the fact that 20 years ago the population stood at 10 million, so we've only gained two million in 2 decades

[FarhanYare]

I am more concerned with the total population of Somalia. 12mil? That is such a small number compared to countries that neighbor us. It is also quite alarming to know we cannot feed and provide basic necessities to such a small number of people. Another thing that this should reaffirm is that there is no need to fight over land anymore, there's more land than we need at 12 million.

War dadkani waa imtixaan. I was actually thinking about this minus the " how they couldn't feed themselves" part. For people who breed like maxaa ka galay, 12million is a drop in the bucket considering the fact that 20 years ago the population stood at 10 million, so we've only gained two million in 2 decades

[BlackVelvet]

If Somalia starts giving out sharci to non-Somalis we will be outnumbered in no time


Also what I find interesting is people are disagreeing with the population estimate without any academic reasoning. Everyone wants to be the most landheer of them all but at least argue based on the method used, the models and statistic tools


Maa hine, my tuulo does not have as many people as I think it should is a ridiculous argument

[samatar133]

12.3 million Somalis in the old Somali republic is an overestimation in my opinion. 10 Million is more realistic but given that the neighbouring countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya always overestimate and exaggerate their populations, this estimation is fair. 1.1 million IDPs is also huge overestimation in my opinion. Urban estimations is more reliable than Rural and Nomadic estimations, the problem is particularly is the nomadic population estimation. Relying on small sample surveys on water points during the dry season for an entire region's nomadic population is not a good or reliable method in my few. It particularly disadvantages regions like Togdheer were majority of its nomadic population immigrate to Hawd and to Ethiopia during the dry season. And the margin of error of this method is understandably high. Even UNFPA admitted that some regions such as Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, and Hiiraan, the standard error of Nomadic estimations is over 20%, meanings those regions could have more than 20% nomadic overestimation,( I am not considering underestimation for good reasons). I am particularly convinced that Nugaal nomadic population is hugely overestimated, I wouldn't be surprised if it is up to 50% overestimated.

If we look at Qabiil point of view, the biggest winners of this survey are Daarood, particularly Majeerteen and the Gadabursi if we take previous surveys as a reference point, espesially the 2005 UNDP survey. Their regions grew proportionally more than the other regions population wise.
According to this survey, qabiil numbers will be roughly like this
Hawiye= 3.5 million
Darood= 2.6 million
Isaaq= 2.2 million
Raxanweyn= 2 million
Dir= 1.4 million
Minorities= 0.6 million

[thegoodshepherd]

It particularly disadvantages regions like Togdheer were majority of its nomadic population immigrate to Hawd and to Ethiopia during the dry season. And the margin of error of this method is understandably high.
Even UNFPA admitted that some regions such as Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, and Hiiraan, the standard error of Nomadic estimations is over 20%, meanings those regions could have more than 20% nomadic overestimation,

The same pattern of migration is true for Nugaal and Mudug. Most of the nomads in the western half of Nugaal and Mudug leave for Ethiopia in xagaa. So if Togdheer is underestimated so are both of those regions.

[samatar133]

^
Nugaal having nearly twice the nomadic population of Togdheer does not seem credible to me.

[thegoodshepherd]

^
Nugaal having nearly twice the nomadic population of Togdheer does not seem credible to me.

Neither does Togdheer having an urban population 100K greater than Mudug. Or Lower Juba being less than 1 million people.

This is a mainly satellite based census, conducted by Mogadishu leaning UN agency. Take it with a grain of salt.

[samatar133]

Togdheer had consistently more population than Mudug in all previous surveys, actually the gap tightened in favour of Mudug at the current survey. Togdheer having 100k more urban population is not controversial or surprising given that Burco being much bigger than Galkacayo and Togdheer having relatively bigger more populated towns such as Sheekh, Oodweyne and Buuhoodle. What is controversial is the sudden and spectacular population growth for Nugaal region.

[Xamud.]

Togdheer had consistently more population than Mudug in all previous surveys, actually the gap tightened in favour of Mudug at the current survey. Togdheer having 100k more urban population is not controversial or surprising given that Burco being much bigger than Galkacayo and Togdheer having relatively bigger more populated towns such as Sheekh, Oodweyne and Buuhoodle. What is controversial is the sudden and spectacular population growth for Nugaal region.

Burco and Gaalkacyo are about the same size today.

Galdogob is bigger than Sheikh and Oodweyne combined, you can check for yourself.

[thegoodshepherd]

Burco is not bigger than Galkacyo, maybe 10 years ago it was, but not anymore.
Area wise Galkacyo is larger, Burco is smaller but more densely built. Togdheer's second largest city is Buhoodle, not Oodweyne or Sheikh.

I suspect at least a third of Togdheer's urban population is in Buhoodle district, which is incredibly more dense than the rest of the gobol.