SomaliNet Forums

abdikarim86 wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:50 am

X.Playa wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:40 am

abdikarim86 wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:21 am
You argue for the sake of it - You must be willing to take certain facts on board before we can proceed, otherwise we would be going in circles.

Who said anything about 10K SM voters?

Point 1 - You must accept that Cabaaye, Sh. Nuur Sh. Madar, Sh. Mubaarik, Ina Aw Aadaan, Daami etc. are in Gacan Libaax. The SL goverment considers these areas to be part of Gacan Libaax.

Point 2 - These areas are thought of as not being HY neighbourhoods (HA and Gabooye mix from what I have heard/experienced) - I have no proof other than anecdotal evidence and the election results (Where the votes were largely along clan lines).

Point 3 - These areas are quite populated as that Wikimapia link to H-town and its neighbourhoods shows.

A final point

873,000 registered - I believe there were very few double registrations BUT only 555,000 voted. This is a turnout of 63%
Is it not plausible that some areas voted more than other areas? Which may explain some of the discrepancies.

You can't have it both ways , lets assume these numbers are right and sacad muuse or habar awal in Gacanlibaax number almost 50% of Gacanlibaax. 26 June with total 24k sacad muuse votes in addition to Gacanlibaax sacad muuse vote or habar awal vote thats less votes then Gabilay which is total of 37k votes for Kulmiye!!

How do you explain that?? These numbers are telling us that there are more sacad muuse votes in that village then in Hargaysa the capital city.

That alone debunks this bogus election results. Thats why Wadani questioned Gabilay and Hargaysa votes , it contradicts every tribal statistics and even logic. With a leap of logic and a world upside down toppled Biixi could have never won.

In order to accept these results one has to ecplain how a sub-sub-sub clan of Sacad Muuse mostly Jibriil Abokor out voted the entire habar awal in Hargaysa?? if we add the habar awal numbers in Hargaysa its less then 37k and in Gabilay alone its as much even if its not more.

A number of mistakes must be corrected before we proceed.

You have stated that so called "HA" votes in the city (Based on Kulmiye's vote tally) are less that the Gabiley votes - This is false!
The votes for Kulmiye in Ibraahim Koodhbuur, 26ka Juun and Gacan Libaax add up to 60,000 - The Gabiley Kulmiye votes are 37,000.

Bal ku yara noqo Xisaabtaa - I know you are drunk and simple Arithmatics is hard but I don't think it is beyond you.

A further point - The Gabiley district includes Wajaale, Arabsiyo, Allaybaday and numerous small villages within a small-ish area - That being said let us NOT pretend 37,000 is a huge number - That is 3 focking neighborhoods of Bristol.

Google Earth is free - Put down the bottle and check it out!

I must re-iterate this as well

873,000 registered - I believe there were very few double registrations BUT only 555,000 voted. This is a turnout of 63%
Is it not plausible that some areas voted more than other areas? Which may explain some of the discrepancies.

KingWaslawi wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:59 am Natiijadii Burco ayaan rabaa, halkaan ka helayaa? Ramzy sxb bal soo post garee iyana.

kaliil wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:19 pm Abdikarim gacanlibaax 80% waa hy sh madar iyo daami mooyee waxa kale waxba maaha.sh nuur iyo sh mubarak waa xero qaxoonti.wadada berbera markaad marayso waxa labada dhinacba ka degen ilaa naaso hablood iyo haleeya waa hy.doorashadii deegaanka 16 hy ahaa ayaa gacanlibaax ka sharaxnaa. 8 ayaa soo baxay oo mid waliba 4000 iyo 5000 cod kusoo baxay 8da dhacdayna qaarkood baa 3500 cod la dhacay markaa waxaasoo cod ahaa maye? kuwa soo baxay 8×4000=32000 kuwa dhacayna 8×2000=16000. 32000+16000=48000

X.Playa wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:27 pm

KingWaslawi wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:59 am Natiijadii Burco ayaan rabaa, halkaan ka helayaa? Ramzy sxb bal soo post garee iyana.

waar waxani natiijad maaha , waa sheeko caruureed. ma nimanka soo qoray Dagmada Togdheer , dagmada Sanmaag , loool ma goblaa mise waa dagmooyin . Dagmadii iyo goboladii ayaanay kala garanaynba.

kaliil wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:19 pm Abdikarim gacanlibaax 80% waa hy sh madar iyo daami mooyee waxa kale waxba maaha.sh nuur iyo sh mubarak waa xero qaxoonti.wadada berbera markaad marayso waxa labada dhinacba ka degen ilaa naaso hablood iyo haleeya waa hy.doorashadii deegaanka 16 hy ahaa ayaa gacanlibaax ka sharaxnaa. 8 ayaa soo baxay oo mid waliba 4000 iyo 5000 cod kusoo baxay 8da dhacdayna qaarkood baa 3500 cod la dhacay markaa waxaasoo cod ahaa maye? kuwa soo baxay 8×4000=32000 kuwa dhacayna 8×2000=16000. 32000+16000=48000

X.Playa wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:23 pm
If you adding Koodbuur ( whatever that means) as Sacad Muuse vote then i grant you , your 60k , lets add Gabilay total vote 40k thats still insane for Jibriil Abokor vote. Ina addition Faraweyn and Daarsulaam ( both sacad muuse regions) 15,000. Berbera and Sheekh 31,000 Ciise Muuse.

146k thousands minimum total habar awal vote. Thats is a total of 26% of all vote castted . Thats even is worst sxb, meaning 1 habar awal vote in every 4 votes castted. One can also reasonably add another 10k vote by Ciise Muuse from Burco which makes Habar Awal the majority voters in somaliland .

I suggest you put down the Zuubeeriya bottle. It dont matter how you wiggle and jiggle this results it fraudulent in every level.

abdikarim86 wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:26 pm

X.Playa wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:23 pm
If you adding Koodbuur ( whatever that means) as Sacad Muuse vote then i grant you , your 60k , lets add Gabilay total vote 40k thats still insane for Jibriil Abokor vote. Ina addition Faraweyn and Daarsulaam ( both sacad muuse regions) 15,000. Berbera and Sheekh 31,000 Ciise Muuse.

146k thousands minimum total habar awal vote. Thats is a total of 26% of all vote castted . Thats even is worst sxb, meaning 1 habar awal vote in every 4 votes castted. One can also reasonably add another 10k vote by Ciise Muuse from Burco which makes Habar Awal the majority voters in somaliland .

I suggest you put down the Zuubeeriya bottle. It dont matter how you wiggle and jiggle this results it fraudulent in every level.

That is YOUR interpretation of the vote NOT mine.
I now understand you and your ilk iyo meesha aad ka calacalaysiin.

The election was meant to prove that HY were the majority - And it did not?

I do NOT believe HA make up that high a percentage. Many things can easily offer a better explanation than your Alcohol-fueled conspiracy theories.

Point 1. 63% of the electorate voted - That is 555,000 out of 873,000. There is every possibility that different parts of the country had differing rates in turnout. This can be explained by many things but I suspect the drought might have played a major role (Seeing as the East and Hawd were worse affected).

Point 2. If the turnout was that low - It could also be postulated that the rate of registration was low - It is conceivable that the same forces which led to a low voter turnout also led to a low registration rate. It is possible that again the East did not register themselves as much as the West (Again because of the drought).

Point 3. All of the SL clans have settled in Hargeysa - Primarily in what were previously "HA" neighborhoods - Even our home in Xeedho (Outside H-town) we were surrounded on 3 sides by Dhulbahante families. This is anecdotal evidence I know, BUT I do not for a second believe that all the voters for Kulmiye in Ibraahim Koodhbuur, 26ka Juun and Gacan libaax are HA - Heck probably not even a majority.

Point 4. On what basis do you assume all the Kulmiye voters are HA in Berbera? What about HJ?

Point 5. 10K Ciise Muuse voters in Burco - I doubt their ENTIRE population is more than 5000 (Anecdotal I know - But you also have NO proof).

You have stated that so called "HA" votes in the city (Based on Kulmiye's vote tally) are less that the Gabiley votes - This is false!
The votes for Kulmiye in Ibraahim Koodhbuur, 26ka Juun and Gacan Libaax add up to 60,000 - The Gabiley Kulmiye votes are 37,000.

Ben Dover wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:10 pm Full results

http://www.slnec.com/wp-content/uploads ... esults.pdf

KingWaslawi wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:41 pm

Ben Dover wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:10 pm Full results

http://www.slnec.com/wp-content/uploads ... esults.pdf

Deegaamo badan oo Axmed Faarax ah waxa ka muuqata inay Waddani u coddeeyeen.

Ben Dover wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:54 pm

KingWaslawi wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:41 pm

Ben Dover wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:10 pm Full results

http://www.slnec.com/wp-content/uploads ... esults.pdf

Deegaamo badan oo Axmed Faarax ah waxa ka muuqata inay Waddani u coddeeyeen.

The Xirsi gaab effect

It seems looking through the voting stations that Harti overwhelmingly voted Wadani, petty they did not have the numbers to make a difference for fat Buddha

Ben Dover wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:10 pm Full results

http://www.slnec.com/wp-content/uploads ... esults.pdf

"There were quite a lot of votes counted from mostly from the centre and west of the country, so the partial recount was a pretty substantial recount. The margin barely changed as a result of the recount. They recounted all the votes in Maroodijeex, the biggest region, that is the largest single number of results from any area, and also from a couple of other areas neighbouring Maroodijeex. The number that was recounted was significant, the margin was sitting at eighty-thousand before that, it was still just under eighty-thousand once the recount was concluded. So again, our impressions was that the recounts confirmed that irregularities that were found were not sufficient to change the result as a whole."

"We went through all irregularities and complaints we were aware of and things we had observed, we tried to separate what we 'hear' and what we 'observe' and apart from that, we are making an assessment on balance, did what we observed happened to a scale or in a systematic pattern that would suggest it would undermine the integrity of the process as a whole?

Our judgment was no. Our judgment was the election was actually a pretty well-run affair. So even though there were problems, even through there were some polling stations that didnt apply the rules as consistently as they should have or the way they should have, that didnt add up to a set of irregularities that would change the results or undermine the integrity of the process."

"We tried to put more emphasis on the peacefulness of the process because there was surprisingly even more peaceful than we had seen in past elections, and past elections have been overall pretty peaceful affairs."

"We wanted to highlight the fact that even by Somaliland's relatively peaceful electoral standards, this election was particularly peacful"

"There was an outbreak of rioting a few days after the elections, and that arose because of the dissatisfaction of the biggest opposition party with the results fundamentally, and there were rather worrying signs already."

"There was quite a bit of dissatisfaction from the big opposition party, we interpreted this as being to some extent perhaps a lack of confidence that they had won, we did not know what the result was so we were reading into the reaction so of people".

"We were also conscious that there were irregularities and some of the things that were being brought up in those days after the elections as complaints were genuine complaints, we reviewed them all very carefully, it did not change our assessment, that those complaints were consistent with what we had observed ourselves, but that they were also not at the scale or a pattern that would suggest that would have changed the results had they not occurred."

"The process was fair, the process was overall reasonable, it was overall a pretty well run event"