Daily dose of reality: Somalia vs Africa & the World

[TheFuturist]

[TheFuturist]

The military/technological/political/economic future that is coming then perhaps you wouldnt be mindlessly fighting over duty villages in the middle of nowhere.

#thefutureiscoming

[NoAngst]

A very good thread!

It's so sad we're behind even other African countries never mind other developing countries. We need years of peace and strong economic growth to catch up.

But despair not my fellow minjo-baasto. All Somalia needs to double it's GDP per capita (total economic output per person) from $600 to $1200 is 7% economic growth for 10 years [(1+.07)^10]. Maintain that rate of growth for 20 years, a single generation, and Somalia would quadruple it's GDP per capita. Of course rapid population growth will eat away some of those gains, but 7% economic growth, sustained for 20 years, would dramatically change Somalia.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

A very good thread!

It's so sad we're behind even other African countries never mind other developing countries. We need years of peace and strong economic growth to catch up.

But despair not my fellow minjo-baasto. All Somalia needs to double it's GDP per capita (total economic output per person) from $600 to $1200 is 7% economic growth for 10 years [(1+.07)^10]. Maintain that rate of growth for 20 years, a single generation, and Somalia would quadruple it's GDP per capita. Of course rapid population growth will eat away some of those gains, but 7% economic growth, sustained for 20 years, would dramatically change Somalia.

And if pigs could fly...

The problem with Somalia and Somalis is not the potential but the people. Currently, there are mini-wars and tribal skirmishes going on and the so called government doesn't even control the capital. Also the kind of growth you are talking about can only be achieved through industrialisation and manufacture.

Right now, the only hopeful thing about Somalia is that thanks to having absolutely zero infratructure, it is cheaper to build it from the ground up rather than up date outdated cities like London and New York.

[NoAngst]

Liqued,

Of course the problem of Somalia is Somalis. If you were to parachute a 1000 Jews, Chinese or English into any corner of Somalia and give them 10 or 20 years, they'd build something descent that Somalis would then be migrating to in droves.

But the point I was trying to make was that economic growth is something achieved overtime. There is no such thing as overnight success. It's all due to the wonders of Compound Growth. Albert Einstein called it "the eighth wonder of the world." When you critically look at Europe, N. America, East Asia and other developed parts of teh world, you'd discover their wealth and attainment is due to painstainking accumulation of capital over generations. Most people don't know but economists estimate that the England was richer in 14th century than modern day Ghana - one of the better success stories of black Africa. Imagine compounding that head-start over centuries and is it any wonders how economically advanced the UK is today? I think not.

[thegoodshepherd]

A very good thread!

It's so sad we're behind even other African countries never mind other developing countries. We need years of peace and strong economic growth to catch up.

But despair not my fellow minjo-baasto. All Somalia needs to double it's GDP per capita (total economic output per person) from $600 to $1200 is 7% economic growth for 10 years [(1+.07)^10]. Maintain that rate of growth for 20 years, a single generation, and Somalia would quadruple it's GDP per capita. Of course rapid population growth will eat away some of those gains, but 7% economic growth, sustained for 20 years, would dramatically change Somalia.

And if pigs could fly...

The problem with Somalia and Somalis is not the potential but the people. Currently, there are mini-wars and tribal skirmishes going on and the so called government doesn't even control the capital. Also the kind of growth you are talking about can only be achieved through industrialisation and manufacture.

Right now, the only hopeful thing about Somalia is that thanks to having absolutely zero infratructure, it is cheaper to build it from the ground up rather than up date outdated cities like London and New York.

Somalia could easily reach $3,000 gdp per capita if population growth is slowed (by education females to basic literacy), and if agricltural yields are raised. Somalia is at such a basic level that agricultural import substitution would work wonders. Substituting rice imports alone would save hundreds of millions each year. Industry would grow around agricultural products, rice and sorghum milling, for example.
This is how countries like Kenya achieved $2000 per capita, by increasing agricultural efficiency, and exporting vegetables and horticulture.

This will of course not work in some states like Bari which need to develop industry if they don't want to starve. But regions like Bay, Bakool, Togdheer, Woqoyie Galbeed and Awdal can specialize in corn and sorghum, while more water-rich regions specialize in export fruit and sugar production. The country needs to feed itself first, the US demonstrated this. When they took over Taiwan, Japan and South Korea the first thing they did was institute land and agricultural reform. Somalia must first eliminate the risk of famine before anything else.

[TheFuturist]

Liquid I disagree. I dont think it is inherently impossible for Somalia to achieve that kind of econ growth. But I do agree that it is unlikely, mainly because a deart of political eadership and lack of political will. But starting from a base as low as Somalia's, it isnt difficult to achieve 7-10% growth year on year if you can get the capital investment necessary expand your economic output. I reckon that Somalia can potentially double if not quadruple its economy in the space of 5 years just by investing moderate sums of capital in 4 or 5 key industries. If Somalia initiated a serious programme of political/social/economic/legal/security reforms, then the potential economic growth are greater than we can even imagine. Other than poor political leadership and security issues, the biggest challenge will be securing the capital needed for these projects, but even that challenge is surmountable with effective leadership.

Somalia is starting from an extraordinarily low base, even by African standards. But it has a lot going for it, especially its resources (believe it or not), its proximity to Asia/Arabia and its ports.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

Yeah. Can you believe Somalia has a higher gdp per capita than ethiopia despite 25 years of zero law, order or governance?

[TheFuturist]

The problem countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria have is their enormous populations and high birth rates. Can you believe that Nigeria adds at least 5m people to its population every year? Even after adjusting for deaths. So for every person they raise our of poverty, another 2 appear.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

A very good thread!

It's so sad we're behind even other African countries never mind other developing countries. We need years of peace and strong economic growth to catch up.

But despair not my fellow minjo-baasto. All Somalia needs to double it's GDP per capita (total economic output per person) from $600 to $1200 is 7% economic growth for 10 years [(1+.07)^10]. Maintain that rate of growth for 20 years, a single generation, and Somalia would quadruple it's GDP per capita. Of course rapid population growth will eat away some of those gains, but 7% economic growth, sustained for 20 years, would dramatically change Somalia.

And if pigs could fly...

The problem with Somalia and Somalis is not the potential but the people. Currently, there are mini-wars and tribal skirmishes going on and the so called government doesn't even control the capital. Also the kind of growth you are talking about can only be achieved through industrialisation and manufacture.

Right now, the only hopeful thing about Somalia is that thanks to having absolutely zero infratructure, it is cheaper to build it from the ground up rather than up date outdated cities like London and New York.

Somalia could easily reach $3,000 gdp per capita if population growth is slowed (by education females to basic literacy), and if agricltural yields are raised. Somalia is at such a basic level that agricultural import substitution would work wonders. Substituting rice imports alone would save hundreds of millions each year. Industry would grow around agricultural products, rice and sorghum milling, for example.
This is how countries like Kenya achieved $2000 per capita, by increasing agricultural efficiency, and exporting vegetables and horticulture.

This will of course not work in some states like Bari which need to develop industry if they don't want to starve. But regions like Bay, Bakool, Togdheer, Woqoyie Galbeed and Awdal can specialize in corn and sorghum, while more water-rich regions specialize in export fruit and sugar production. The country needs to feed itself first, the US demonstrated this. When they took over Taiwan, Japan and South Korea the first thing they did was institute land and agricultural reform. Somalia must first eliminate the risk of famine before anything else.

If we delegate the roles first it would help. If Somaliland, Puntland, and the central region handled heavy industry and manufacture. The Riverrine regions and the South could be left for agriculture and natural products like tobacco, coffee, cotton, maize etc. The Central regions also have uranium and gypsum. The deep southern coastline has oil.

In a country with barely over 10 million people, the country being huge (almost 250,000 sqmiles) there's enough resources for everybody. And if handled properly, could make us into an Australia/Canada sized economy.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

The problem countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria have is their enormous populations and high birth rates. Can you believe that Nigeria adds at least 5m people to its population every year? Even after adjusting for deaths. So for every person they raise our of poverty, another 2 appear.

They should impliment state-sanctioned birth-control like China. Educate the people, fine and arrest anybody who has more than one child and provide better education and opportunities for girls.

[TheFuturist]

Thegoodshepherd, you are right about agricultural reform and it should be a key industry for Somalia. Agricultural produce has enormous potential because we could effectively kill three birds with one stone. 1. Import substitution of imported foodstuff on which Somalia currently spends a few billion USD a year. 2. Exporting of raw/unprocessed agricultural produce. 3. Agri-businesess, related exports and light processing. This is potentially an industry 3x the size of our current livestock industry which is worth an estimated $1-1.5bn across all regions.

Thats just one industry. It wouldnt even require significant investmen, just greater scale.

[AwRastaale]

Good topic. It's good to slap Somalis and their empty egos with sense of the reality. They need to see what a loser race they truly are and still they are so proud. I do not get that. Proud of gaajo, wars and famine.

Also some guys like Liquid need to understand per capita is not the ultimate factor of success. So what if Somalia has higher per capita than Ethiopia? Ethiopia is adding more millionaires to its market every year than anywhere else in Africa forget zero producing Somalia.

There are now 2,700 millionaires in Ethiopia, reflecting an increase of 108% between 2007 and 2013 -- the fastest growth rate in Africa.

http://mgafrica.com/article/2015-12-02- ... using-boom

[TheFuturist]

The problem countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria have is their enormous populations and high birth rates. Can you believe that Nigeria adds at least 5m people to its population every year? Even after adjusting for deaths. So for every person they raise our of poverty, another 2 appear.

They should impliment state-sanctioned birth-control like China. Educate the people, fine and arrest anybody who has more than one child and provide better education and opportunities for girls.

I couldnt care less about what they do.... Xabashi ijiroole kibray oo Soomaali neceb ayaan dunidaba ugu necebahay waxaan arko. Waan jiricoon jiray when I saw them begging in Hargeisa in groups of tens.

[TheFuturist]

I think Kenya has done some things that Somalia could learn from. They have a few key sectors that they invested in heavily and that have acted as engines for their economy such as tourism, agriculture (florestry, coffee/tea, miraa/khat, dairy), logistics (their port serves Uganda/Rwanda/Burundi/South Sudan/CAR/North Eastern DRC) and ICT/telcomms.

Somalia should focus on sectors where it has a natural competitive advantage such as livestock/agriculture/fishing/logistics/telecoms (soomaali waa dad hadal badan)/finance.