What is the Plan?

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

Since you guys ask a number of questions in the PL section, I thought I'd ask a curious question here. A question that gets silly answers (which I expect again) and a question that many feel offended about, but an important question indeed.

Let me ask, what is the plan of action for Gedo's future, or the Marehan future in general? For long I believed the nation had gotten to a point whereby factions that did not maintain their capacity or evolve into other entities by the early 2000s are in permanent limbo, but that clearly hasn't been the case for Galmudug, Ximan/Xeeb, and even Hiiraan which although its faction never became a cohesive political entity they managed to disarm and rebuild spontaneously without formally declaring anything - this is reason enough to believe that there is an unlimited time window for the creation and progression of new entities and realities.

I have noticed that Cabudwaaq has organized itself somewhat, although not nearly with the same vigor as neighboring state-regions that are the same size. Before I go any further, I don't want anyone to use the cheap nationalism/"i see the bigger picture" card because that certainly isn't reflective of reality.

Is there an actual cohesive state movement in your home regions (please don't name off low-ranking ex-officers as state leaders) or more importantly in the diaspora that is actively pushing for a united political state-like entity for your homelands?

The reason I ask you guys and not others like Raxanweyn or Biimaal is because you are the one group that, for as long as I remember, have been declaring intentions statehood (or the more feisty members of your community declaring the existence of a state), but have never made it happen. Other states, started by single non-military figures, like the Salebaan computer science guy from Minneapolis who formed Ximan/Xeeb, were built spontaneously and with a fairly high functionality.

Feel free to discuss among yourselves or share your viewpoints, its a simple question and many people are curious about an answer. Had your community not been so vocal and confident about calling for a state then this question would not be around. Any and all answers are welcome.

[Murax]

First I dont know what questions we ask or gets answered in Pland section by us by anywya to get to the point. You cannot compare Ximaan iyo Xeeb which probably consists of 1 or 2 small towns with State building in Gedo the second largest region in Somalia. First Gedo is linked with other regions namely the two Jubbas. There is not and probably is never going to be a "Gedo State" until the neighboring Jubbas being sorted out. The Jubba River runs through Gedo and ends up in Kismaayo and thats 2000 kilometres from Doolow to Kismaayo. If Marexaan were to get up tommorow and completely push for some sort of a State, then they would still need several partners from other clans in the region to simuntaneously and thats asking a lot. Generally speaking though We really do not need a "Jubbaland" admin. As long as there is a strong local admin in Gedo, and a good admin in Kismaayo we are happy with then thats all we need. Remember Gedo relies on Kismaayo's port as without it we are dependent on Xamar and thats not a good idea. Caabudwaaq since 2008 when it got a permenant, stable admin has seen considerable progress, and in my opinion is the most vibrant central region town after Galkacyo/Golgodob (which have had a stable admin for over 10 years). As it is I don't think Gedo towns are not that far off from actually becoming robust towns in Somalia as long as they have a good 5 year period of development and uninturrupted peace. Most bigger towns in Somalia before they really started to take off they probably looked something like this. Biggest challenge I see with Gedo is that its in a remote location due to the North South Road. Other then Kismaayo, Mogadishu Gedo really doesn't have any sort of trade relationship with any towns in Somalia really perhaps due to the tough road conditions. Most of our trade is done with Reer Mandeera/Sufka which are in Kenya/Ethiopia respectively.

[Voltage]

It is not the present, it is the future. Marehan are the only serious military force as a clan in Somalia and this would not have been in existence if the group was not one of the more powerful and organized Somalis groups in the diaspora. Do you know how much it take to sustain the civil war movements of the clan? How can you compare us to Majerten surrounded on three fronts by water and would have already become like Biimaal or Duduble if they chanced to be located in the southern theater? How can you compare us to Ximan and Xeeb, a city-state town called Cadaado or to Galmudug a territory which has achieved less than a town called Caabudwaaq? I sincerely and will continue to believe Puntland is a fluke, a temporary phenomenon during the during duration of the civil war. Look at it anyway and I see a correlation between Puntland's existence as a state and the continuence of civil war in Somalia. Somaliland I consider a separate case apart from Somalia.

As for the clan, they have been determined as they have been determined from day one to lead Somalia's most important federal state from the border with Ethiopia in Dollow to Kismaayo in the Indian Ocean. Has it been easy? No and given the history of Somalia's civil war (or I should say southern civil war) I don't expect anyone expected it to be easy, but there is a direct testament to the fiery movements in the Marehan and the level of zeal and determination that keeps it moving. Why is Marehan the only clan in Somalia to have defeated Shabaab and is now poised to completely eradicate them from their regions? You have to think seriously about this. This is the mad max world of the heart of Somalia's infamous anarchy and civil strife. So instead of measuring organization and planning of Marehan as you do in Puntland, a measurement of what NGO has managed to support the building of what three story structure, measure the resistance, the achievements, and the never ending supply of military logistics that sustains the position of Marehan has one of the most prominent, if not the most prominent military block as a clan in the whole south.

Of course I am a Marehan and can be accused of bias, but I also know my clan. I know the proliferation of the clan as one of the most prominent Somali diaspora members. I know the countless thousands of Farmaajos who have been educated since the Siad government who are spread out all ready to flock to the country the moment peace forms. I know the amount of organization and determination that has fueled the heavily armed nature of the clan and I know the sense of self-importance and knowledge of being Marehan and not only working for the clan but as well as the country that Marehan youth connected around the world share. The strength of the Marehan youth lobby even here in Somalinet is a replication of that reality. The people who will be there to make those lands important are the Voltages, Warsames, Muraxs, Gedoboys, Sadebois, Qansas, SDMS...in fact there is not a single Marehan participant here not in college or a college-graduate.

Even businesswise and trade, Gedo is one of the most strategically important locations in the country controlling the most amount of trade between East Africa's three most important countries. The only reason you have not seen the profits of that trade in the land is because of war. Who is going to invest in a place of war where the investment will be destroyed? The US Congress' number analyst for Somalia, Ken Menkhaus, who traveled throughout the country during the civil war said a trader in Gedo makes more money than Somaliland and capital is abundant although not invested in the land (because of war):

Some of the trade with neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya takes the form of recorded trade via official crossing-points at Belet Hawa and El Waq on the border with Kenya and at Dolo on the border with Ethiopia. Considerable unofficial trade is also engaged in across the borders with both Kenya and Ethiopia. Extensive small trading goes on in all towns and villages as well.

Kenneth Menkhaus, Assistant Professor at Davidson College/UNDOS consultant, considered the Gedo region's economy to be in reasonably good shape and described trade in the region as "booming". Traders in Gedo made more profit than, for instance, those in Hargeisa, in north-western Somalia (Somaliland). He pointed out that the Gedo region was a centre for brisk trading between Somalia and Kenya or Ethiopia. Large quantities of goods were brought from Mogadishu to Bardera by lorry. Bardera, being the largest town in the Gedo region, formed the centre of that trade, with active flows of funds both from abroad and to and from Mogadishu...

...While in Luuq, the delegation visited a transhipment centre for imported goods from Mogadishu. The centre contained a number of trucks from Mogadishu, from which goods were transferred to what were referred to as "Marehan trucks". These then took goods on to destinations in Gedo. Luuq District Council reported that it had begun taxing trade in the area. Goods from Mogadishu and livestock transactions were taxed, with the tax revenue being used for purposes including police pay.

http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/pdfid/3ae6a5bd0.pdf

However, the armed movement must succeed. This is first and foremost and the plan entails this. By all factors, the Somali civil war is in its last 5 minutes. I have been blessed with a largely fortunate geography which has given me a head start does not mean you will get to the finish line first. By nature of organization, determination, and capital I can easily say it takes more of that to continue the military stature of the Marehan then it does to sustain any "development" you parade from Puntland. This is the immediate goal and plan; the armed movement must succeed. We watch and work for this from everywhere.

[Murax]

^^

Great point. Compare a Jubbaland to a Puntland and the clan composition:


Jubbaland:

OG, Sheikhaal, Gaaljecel, Cawaramle, Marexaan, Biyomal, Raxanwein, Garre among countless others who are all armed to the teeth and are all super suspicous and wary of Marexaan as "Land Grabbers".

Puntland:

Majerteen, Dhulbahante, Warsangeli, Dishiishe, Lelkasse. 100% Daarood and even more good percentage is Harti. Their only Non Daarood neighbor already have a State thats very peaceful and not in anarchy. On top of that Caydiid never passed Gaalkacyo so these areas never saw one day of civil war. No offense but if Majerteen couldn't build a Admin and succeed with that type of oppritunity then they would be the biggest wastes in the world. That being said, Marexaan have here have been known to applaud Puntland and not hate on it.


For a Jubbaland to become a reality and for Marexaan to build it, they literily have to militairly conquere, occupy and use brute to pacify the hundreds of thousands of people who inhabit this region, which is a challenge but I actually believe it can be done. If Baardheere falls this week, whats stopping us from being in Kismaayo by the following week?

[Voltage]

Murax, Paidmonk's whole calculus of Somalia is based on the present when Kismaayo is not in the equation, Baardheere is not in the equation, Beledweyne is not in the equation, Baydhabo is not in the equation, and even this planned central regions maamul headquartered in Caabudwaaq is not in the equation. His whole rationale about Garowe's stature is based on the reality where these towns and maamuls they will be central to are not in the equation. He will see a lot when war ends in all of the country.

[Cali_Gaab]

That part if the article holds no water, it doesn't say that Gedo makes more money than Somaliland either. It compares a gobol to a city which was recovering from two major wars and practically non existant with no free movement of clans.

[Murax]

That part if the article holds no water, it doesn't say that Gedo makes more money than Somaliland either. It compares a gobol to a city which was recovering from two major wars and practically non existant with no free movement of clans.

Adna markad somaliland maqashid baad soo cararta. Its the first Friday after Ramadan don't u have qaad to chew?

[Cali_Gaab]

I don't chew anymore, ha ii xasuusin.

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

This is not about PL, but Marexaan. Voltage, I have no idea why you went on your tirade and exaggerations. According to every recent source, PL is the most heavily armed faction in Somalia today, with Al-Shabaab and Somaliland in competition - the rest are a joke militarily-speaking. This is not 1992, when Marexaan were in fact at least equipment-wise the best armed, times have changed drastically. Moving on from that, there is no point in making comparisons to PL, this is about you guys and I see a lot of excuse-making - which is the first thing you did instead of actually outlining a plan of action.

Secondly, you seem to be boasting a lot about what CAN be there instead of what WILL be there. All of the Voltage's and Qansas and Muraxs in the world are not guaranteed to help Gedo - its got less to do with education capacity but about who is willing to get their hands dirty and go back home. Emperior, an illiterate man, has done more for his tol than the 10 smartest Marexaan in the world. It seems like you'd rather entertain delusions of grandeur than come up with realistic solutions, and this is what I've always seen as the biggest roadblock - I have no idea why you guys can't be honest about the reality like the Ogaden or Rahanweyn or Hawaadle who can look reality in the eye and either do something about it or acknowledge it as a starting point. I'm going to ask this question on another forum and see if they can exhibit a higher level of maturity.

[DropkickMurphy]

Emperior, an illiterate man, has done more for his tol than the 10 smartest Marexaan in the world.

[Latiifah]

Monk of Muqdisho,

Gedo has alot of potential and that's something that can't be disputed about, and if it was given the opportunity its lacking I'm sure you'd be singing a different tune right now. However, just because of the little stability of the region which hinders all efforts of progression does not mean that you can make cheap shots to score some points. Not all of us are blessed with stability and for you to boast about Pland shows that you're very shallow minded.

[Voltage]

It seems like you'd rather entertain delusions of grandeur than come up with realistic solutions, and this is what I've always seen as the biggest roadblock - I have no idea why you guys can't be honest about the reality

[Murax]

You don't understand Paidmonk. He just wants to keep 'rephrasing' the question until You give Him the answer He wants to hear; "Majerteen are so amazing, so great, We need to follow their direct path, etc.". As far as real answers ma doonayo. Take it as a lesson learned people

[kismayogedojubaland]

Bastard Focken Dhabayaco!