Why is the UK returning to Somalia? - Analysis

[UlteriorMotive]

The one day meeting hosted by Prime Minister David Cameron is expected to reboot the status quo between the United Kingdom and the region formerly known as Somalia. Twenty years of diffidence and neglect have destroyed the singular concept of Somalia and the emergence of al Shabaab as an international threat harks back to the neglect and consequences of ignoring Afghanistan between the UK covert program inside Afghanistan in the 80s and their failed military involvement over the last decade. The UK is dealing with this new Somali factionalism with welcome honesty.

The official reason for the conference, as stated on Ambassador Matt Baugh's blog, is "In short, Somalia matters. The stability, security and prosperity of Somalia is in all of our interests. Twenty years of conflict have left a terrible legacy. We have therefore made a renewed and strong commitment to supporting the development of a stable and secure country for the people of Somalia."

Despite the simple answer, there is no proof provided that stability or lack of stability has affected the UK over the last twenty years Somalia was ignored. So the obvious question would be "why now?" and "why the UK?". Ethiopia, Kenya and even the UAE have a logical reason to be involved. America and France look at the area as an open lane for terrorist hunting. While the UK proclaims that pirates are a plague on their maritime business, it is primarily UK firms that generate significant profits from providing intelligence, training, insurance, security and other services related to anti-piracy.

Over the last few weeks, quiet and not-so-quiet UK-funded delegations have visited Hargeisa, Garowe, Bosaso and Mogadishu to assess security, review local programs and meet behind closed doors to form an agenda for the more public meeting in London. The conference was initially pitched as an "anti-piracy" conference but was rejigged to have a broader agenda.

Confident that the players on the ground will be receptive (and present) at the one-day event, the Foreign Secretary and UK Development made their public press tour. The one-day meeting will be more of a series of announcements based on high level in camera meetings held with the leaders of Somaliland, Puntland and the TFG. The scope and amount of funding will remain a mystery until the actual conference.

Out And About

With all the groundwork carefully laid, a photo op to announce the conference was required. First UK Development Minister Andrew Mitchell and posse were dispatched to Garowe and boldly proclaim in colonial explorer style that he was "first British Minister to visit Puntland ever." His role as head of theDepartment For International Development (DFID) is to encourage business development even going so far as proclaiming ""What... promotes growth and lifts people out of poverty? The answer is wealth creation and economic growth - it's cherishing your entrepreneurs." It is doubtful that there is a shortage of entrepreneurs or even investment capital in Puntland. It is difficult to see how this cash flow driven enthusiasm can deal with the regions recent famine.

British Secretary of State William Hague donned a vest and teetered a helmet on his head while being photographed lumbering around Mog in a Casspir. Grand speeches captured by the Beeb crew in tow (with a carefully prepared map labeled "Who Runs Somalia") were made and the announcement of the first ambassador to Somalia was only offset with the fact that he will be in Nairobi. The announcement that Matt Baugh will be the UK ambassador based in Nairobi “until security conditions allow an embassy to be built in Mogadishu”. There may be more British citizens fighting inside Somalia for al Qaeda and al Shabaab than representing the UK government inside Somalia.

A Less Than Pleasant Past

Despite the new glad-handing and photos the UK has not maintained a friendly tone with Somalia or even a presence over the last few years.

The most recent Human Rights Report describes the TFG; “it lacks the power and capacity to deal effectively with many of the systematic human rights abuses that occur. The unstable security situation in 2010 prevented us from directly monitoring and verifying human rights abuses or from being able to apply pressure or push for changes and improvements." The UK call on what was going to transpire in 2011? “The human rights situation in Somalia is unlikely to improve significantly in 2011." The opposite has proven true with concerted proxy forces pushing al Shabaab further into a corner and stability flowing into Mogadishu.

Despite that lack of historic visibility and clearly stated frustration with Somalia, the failed state is a “priority country” for the UK National Security Council. Somalia is also one of 26 countries that the UK has human rights concerns with. According to UK figures there are officially 100,000 Somali immigrants living in the UK, but President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said that there are 350,000 Somalis are living in the UK and some are training as terrorists inside Somalia.

HIstory Repeats Itself

Britain has history in the region with Somaliland being a British Protectorate between 1888 to 1960. If one wants to understand why UK sees themselves appropriate for their role one only needs to go back to when Somalia was a major supplier of meat to British garrisons in Aden, a base set up to battle pirates. As a major maritime nation that supplies most of the maritime security it is also in the UK’s interest to promote this legacy and cash flow. Expect to see ambitious training, equipment and operational programs for land based maritime security. The May 2011 Department For International Development (DFID) plan lays out more concrete goals in four key areas: governance and peace-building, wealth and job creation, health care and humanitarian assistance. The UK agency shows a minimal increase of funds from £42M last year £46M next year and a jump to £80M a year in 2013 through 2015. A relatively respectable percentage for ten million Somalis when set against the £9B available via the Gross Public Expenditure on Development (GPEX).

The sudden UK interest in Somalia could be somewhat arbitrary. Faced with the end of combat operations in the UK and the looming shut down in Afghanistan, the UK is lock stepping with the US in the new proxy formula for foreign policy. The UK and the US robustly engaged Qaddafi (because the US was footing most of the bills) but refuses to engage Syria. It's not difficult when Libya's new government promises to "favor our friends" in developing the oil industry. The restarting of oil exploration, the strategic naval position and open field for development is ideal for the UK to exploit.

Although the UK Embassy (and every other diplomat) was eager to bail out of Mogadishu when the Somalia government failed, it is not so eager to jump back in now that bullets and RPGs no longer splatter Villa Somalia. The appointment of a "Non-Resident Ambassador" in Matt Baugh brings a solid background in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and Kosovo to Somalia problem solving. He will not be too daunted by the task ahead of him.

One Day, Six Topics, Forty Countries, Many Agendas

Although the conference boasts of 40 countries and includes everyone and their dog descending on London to get in front of the funding firehose. To keep factionalism and squabbling to a minimum the conference is only one day and simply a backdrop for a series of expected announcements based on predetermined agreements. Although the conference is being held on February 20, 2012 the primary, secondary and tertiary sidebar meetings occurred before actual day-long event and will continue up to the day before. Most major players will be arriving in London on two days before.

Although the focus is on "Somalia" the UK fully acknowledges the fractured and mercurial political situation. Invited are "Somalia’s Transitional Federal Institutions, as well as the Presidents of Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, and representatives of Ahlu Sunnah wal Jamaah (ASWJ)". In addition to the UN, EU, World Bank, IGAD, OIC and League of Arab States will have representatives present.

Let's look at the agenda and speculate on some of the outcomes.

Security: The UK intends to gather or provide “sustainable” funding for AMISOM. This would cover the Kenyan’s magically transform from penny pinching invader to paid “peace keeper”. The invitation of ASWJ also means that they will probably not go home empty handed. There will be most likely be funding for UK private contractors to provide training programs in the police, coastguard, intelligence and military sectors (and the expected sales in equipment). Some dollars for the judicial and prison system (along with training). It is in vogue to build prisons in Somalia to house yet to be captured and condemned pirates. Some deference to coastal areas will made but there has been no UK contact with the pirate areas of Galmadug and Puntland.

Politics: The UK is on board with helping with the American heave ho to the 550 plus squabbling TFG members who occasionally grace Mogadishu with their presence. The Garowe Conference or Principles provided clear indication that the unwieldy transitional structure and that pugilistic politics would not longer be tolerated. What is revealing is that the UK will run the purse strings via their suggested “Joint Financial Management Board”.

Stability: The UK will promise to throw a few quid against other nations who will dole out donors dollars with parsimonious glee that would embarrass Scrooge. Most assessed and approved programs in Somalia are woefully underfunded and most are just good intentions. In keeping with the “multi track” approach a few dollars will hit the poor regions instead of being concentrated in Mogadishu.

Counter Terrorism: There will be plenty of podium beating on anti-terrorism but the UK will always take the back seat to the U.S. and the French, who are busy putting JSOC boots on the ground in the north, running drones from Ethiopia and funding militias to thump Al Shabaab. It is very interesting that ASWJ is a full fledged member of the Somalia representatives. The UK has shown remarkable lack of enthusiasm in rescuing his citizens (like Judith Tebbutt and the Chandlers before them).

Piracy: The conference promises to help in “breaking the piracy business model”. This careful working means more banking controls, criminal investigations. This is the high point of hypocrisy since it is the UK’s curious blessing of funding piracy that actually drives piracy. There is far too much enthusiasm in coddling the “ransom for ships” business. It would be refreshing to hear a simple statement that no UK business or UK related insurers would be allowed to pay pirates. Keep in mind that all major ransoms are specifically reviewed and approved by the UK government anti-crime division before being delivered to Somali criminals.

Humanitarian: The UK’s “renewed commitment to tackling Somalia’s humanitarian crisis” is simply more of the same. International coordination: agreement on improved international handling of Somalia issues. UK citizens delivered significant funds in response to the famine. The UN emergency appeal for Kenya was only 65% funded and the appeal for Somalia just 59% funded. It is doubtful that the UK will make up this shortfall when the need is virtually bottomless. Many grand statements made at conferences rarely translate into the full impact on the ground. The UK DFID program is an ideal mechanism to fund local programs and an increase in funding would be expected.

The sudden British interest in Somalia is easy to understand particularly when contrasted to apparent lack of public interest in Somalia by the United States. The U.S. has an erroneous legacy of failure in Operation Restore Hope and is best known for the sideshow that become known as Black Hawk Down. DC beltway pundits still press for “disengagement” in the region while JSOC quietly puts boots on the ground, ships in the sea, drones in the air and missiles into al Shabaab convoys. Understandably the potential for U.S. land based initiatives becoming welcomed while anonymous assassinations are going on is slim. So the UK and Hague has been thrust into the spotlight while their US counterpart promotes the UK agenda behind the scenes. In line with the sophisticated public outreach and stage managed event, British Secretary of State William Hague will answer readers' questions via Twitter on February 6th 2012

Ambassador Matt Baugh's staff maintains a healthy interactive blog that provides background and responds to selected comments. He states, :I know how important the Internet is for communication about Somali issues, both in Somalia and between the diverse Somali diaspora communities around the world. So by going online I hope to be able to join and contribute to that debate."

The danger that this well-orchestrated conference creates is that Somalis in Nairobi coffee houses and simple khat chewing tents see this as an unwelcome connection between the political elite and an old colonial nemesis, similar to what happened when the British and Italians negotiated deals with tiny sultanates to gain de facto control over the hinterlands. There is sure to be backlash and dissension once the Somali conference attendees leave their plush hotels and return to their dusty and battered homeland to sell the new programs.

Abdurahman Hosh Jibriil, a Canadian citizen of the Daarood Clan, Leelkase Subclan and TFG Minister for Constitution and Reconciliation commented on the conference during a press meeting in Nairobi. “We have heard that there are documents about Somalia which Britain and Italy have transferred to each other. The aim of the London meeting is to create a protectorate. Somali's will not allow this. It’s the 21 century – no one would allow this.”

A student at Bosaso's East Africa University has more deep rooted concerns. “We hear that the British want to colonize Somalia after 50 years. It’s unbelievable, I am sure this will create more al-Shabaab and pirates in East Africa. Colonization divided our nation and denied our wish so we will not accept it again. We prefer to die. We hate al-Shabaab and pirates but if this happens a lot of students will join them to fight for our independence," Mohamed, a student in Bosaso East Africa university he told Somalia Report.

Others have a more pragmatic and positive view on the event.

“We have had discussions about this conference with Italy. They pledge to support the TFG and the Roadmap,” TFG Prime Minister Abdiweli told Somalia Report today in Nairobi, after he returned from meetings in Rome. For now the UK's "return" to Somalia is only handshakes and promises but it is part of the continuing engagement of foreign actors to assist in Somalia's return from twenty dark years.

[abdisamad3]

to assist amisom.

[kambuli]

Somehow when Turkey get involved in Somalia many others are rushing to Somalia, don't know why

[tightrope]

Somehow when Turkey get involved in Somalia many others are rushing to Somalia, don't know why

THIS IS WHY PUNTLAND SHOULDN;T GIVE THE TURKS A CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT.

Turkey only became involved in Somalia when their US/EU masters made them aware about the TFG and resources. Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Emiratis have been active in Somalia much longer, even poor Yemen has done more for Somalis than anyone else.

Fuck Turkey and their fake charity. These faggots were gone for 20 years and they come when Somalis (Puntland especially) gets its shit together at the highest level, acting like their charity is genuine. Only a blind donkey can fall for that trick.

Contracts should go to Korea & Japan, this should be about business. And I'm sure Puntland is ahead of the situation; Turkey should build their orphanages and shit in Xamar, Puntland is a place of business and Turkey doesn't bring real business to Somalia.

Wallahi Japan has been helping Somalis for decades on building important institutions, they are my #1 choice along with Korea.

viewtopic.php?f=246&t=296747

NUFF SAID...

[abdisamad3]

Somehow when Turkey get involved in Somalia many others are rushing to Somalia, don't know why

Don't know why you Somalis believe Turkey is better than any other opportunistic country , dont you people know Turkey is a Nato member, that means where ever Turkey goes so do their allies, they are probably assisting each other just like in Afghanistan. Beside Turkey is 100% behind the invasion of Somalia by the proxy org's called AU/Igad.

[tightrope]

Somehow when Turkey get involved in Somalia many others are rushing to Somalia, don't know why

Don't know why you Somalis believe Turkey is better than any other, dont you people know Turkey is a Nato member, that means where ever Turkey goes so do their allies, they are probably assisting each other just like Afghanistan. Beside Turkey is 100% behind the invasion of Somalia by the proxy org's called AU/Igad.

FOCK THE TURKS!

[UlteriorMotive]

The restarting of oil exploration, the strategic naval position and open field for development is ideal for the UK to exploit.

While the UK proclaims that pirates are a plague on their maritime business, it is primarily UK firms that generate significant profits from providing intelligence, training, insurance, security and other services related to anti-piracy.

Over the last few weeks, quiet and not-so-quiet UK-funded delegations have visited Hargeisa, Garowe, Bosaso and Mogadishu to assess security, review local programs and meet behind closed doors to form an agenda for the more public meeting in London.

smh

Bear in mind that most territorial disputes/border issues/ethnic tension in the world can probably be traced back to the random lines in the sand drawn by the British in their heydey. Here we are...tapdancing for them.

You would think once bitten twice shy right....but what's the difference between these two scenarios

what happened when the British and Italians negotiated deals with tiny sultanates to gain de facto control over the hinterlands.

Over the last few weeks, quiet and not-so-quiet UK-funded delegations have visited Hargeisa, Garowe, Bosaso and Mogadishu to assess security, review local programs and meet behind closed doors to form an agenda for the more public meeting in London.

You can't teach an old dog new tricks.

[quark]

smh

Bear in mind that most territorial disputes/border issues/ethnic tension in the world can probably be traced back to the random lines in the sand drawn by the British in their heydey. Here we are...tapdancing for them.

from kashmir, palestine, ogaden region, NFD, and many other places, people are still suffering from this devils mess. They should be the last folks that we should deal with. even today some somalis are willing to die and kill fellow somalis because of a imaginary border created by this bastards.

[NoAngst.]

Somehow when Turkey get involved in Somalia many others are rushing to Somalia, don't know why

Where was Turkey in the 1990s when 100s of thousands of Somalis died with millions made refugees? I'm always amazed at the historical amnesia of Somalis. Everything we're seeing today we saw in the 1990s from Al-Itixaad Jihaadism to foreign military interventions to countless foreign conferences on the plight of Somalia. As Yogi Berra would say, it is Deja Vu all over again.

[greenday]

Somalia should take all the help but be very wary of everyone, take advantage of these opportunities without coming out the losers at the end. We really need mean ass people who can cut hard deals.

[SahanGalbeed]

Somehow when Turkey get involved in Somalia many others are rushing to Somalia, don't know why

THIS IS WHY PUNTLAND SHOULDN;T GIVE THE TURKS A CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT.

Turkey only became involved in Somalia when their US/EU masters made them aware about the TFG and resources. Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Emiratis have been active in Somalia much longer, even poor Yemen has done more for Somalis than anyone else.

Fuck Turkey and their fake charity. These faggots were gone for 20 years and they come when Somalis (Puntland especially) gets its shit together at the highest level, acting like their charity is genuine. Only a blind donkey can fall for that trick.

Contracts should go to Korea & Japan, this should be about business. And I'm sure Puntland is ahead of the situation; Turkey should build their orphanages and shit in Xamar, Puntland is a place of business and Turkey doesn't bring real business to Somalia.

Wallahi Japan has been helping Somalis for decades on building important institutions, they are my #1 choice along with Korea.

viewtopic.php?f=246&t=296747


NUFF SAID...

I wouldn't let that guy talk on your behalf , he will come to regret his words very soon .

[Jaidi]

As always the quote about Somali's thinking they are at the center of the world when they are not at the periphery of the periphery comes to mind. I'm sorry but the country is not that relevant on anyone's economic concerns. The Turks footprint is quite marginal and what economic resources are there to exploit? What industries, markets, or minerals does Somalia have to provide thus far? Even the oil wasn't discovered yet, for it to be stole.The idea that oil can be "stolen" or that oil alone shapes foreign policy doesn't understand the resource politics of today.

[UlteriorMotive]

So they are coming for fun?

Every country has a foreign policy objective sxb. If you don't think it is economically motivated in this case, you can stop patronising us and put forth your ideas.

Btw the idea that oil can be stolen is not far fetched....ask the Iranians whether or not their oil was being looted by the British for decades.

[Xamud.]

This is a very simple game plan, cut the country up 40 different states and play them against each other to the point where they hate each other so much they will do anything to gain foreign support so they can destroye their foes.

[Jaidi]

So they are coming for fun?

Every country has a foreign policy objective sxb. If you don't think it is economically motivated in this case, you can stop patronising us and put forth your ideas.

Btw the idea that oil can be stolen is not far fetched....ask the Iranians whether or not their oil was being looted by the British for decades.

In the contemporary, interventions are not all about economics. Take Libya for example. The Americans hardly import any oil from Libya. They have much bigger interests in Canada, the Gulf, Mexico etc. They are marginal importers of Libyan oil compared to the Europeans, yet they choose to intervene. There are other factors at play other than economics, including security, domestic politics, and a larger foreign policy framework.Even in Iraq, the Americans don't even enjoy unprecedented access to their oil as it stands. In fact the Chinese won the biggest contracts and are the biggest importers of Iraqi oil today.

As for why the British I thought your article did a pretty decent job at covering most of that. They Brits want to maintain their foreign policy relevance vis-a-vis their defense cuts. Somalia is mostly relevant because of its location and because of security concerns. Its likely the U.S. took a gamble, like the article insinuates, in allowing for the Brits to play a bigger role in domestic politics of shoring up the TFG while it continues to direct the security aspect. I do not think having an unstable Somalia especially with alShabaab involvement is in their interests either. Whether anything comes out of this, is where I'm very dubious. The ambassador won't even be based in Mogadishu and I don't really see anything big the conference could achieve. It seems much more like a big photo-op, not unlike previous international conferences that won't have massive repercussions on the ground. The Brits will not commit troops on the ground either.