Vote of No Confidence

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SultanOrder
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Vote of No Confidence

Post by SultanOrder »

The political crisis that is hitting the still infant Federal Government of Somalia could culminate into a Vote of No Confidence. A vote which would bring down the appointed government. This could have widespread ramifications on the function of the government for months, at a time where every moment is crucial. According to the Federal Constitution of Somalia, the Parliament is invested with the following power:
Article 69 The Powers of the House of the People of the Federal Parliament
Section 2:

(e) To carry out a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and his deputy or deputies by a simple majority vote of the total members (50% +1) to be conducted by means of a show of hands;
This gives the parliament the power to depose a sitting prime minister. But it is ambiguous as to what happens to his cabinet. If a sitting prime minister is voted out of office through a parliamentary motion, it should also by extension be a vote on the cabinet; as the vote is a referendum on the ineffectiveness of the present government. At least that is what I believe is assumed by the failure to mention the cabinet. I believe the constitution views the Prime Minister and his cabinet as one entity once they are voted in. I believe this because in the case of a vote of confidence in the same article but on the point before it, it clearly says:
(d)To give a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers, and in government projects, to be conducted by a simple majority vote of the total members(50%+1) by means of a show of hands to the Prime Minister and members of the Council of Ministers;
In the vote of confidence the cabinet is clearly included, as the Prime Minister is first elected, then the Council of Ministers are subsequently elected after being appointed by the Prime Minister. But there is no case in the constitution in which the Council of Ministers are voted out through a vote of no confidence and the Prime Minister stays.

Therefore, I conclude that if the Prime Minister is voted out through a vote of no confidence, the council of ministers will also be voted out. This will leave Somalia without a government until the President appoints a new Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister appoints a new Council of Ministers.

Part 2:

We all know how long it took the President to appoint the Prime Minister. In a bid to get consultation from a number of regions and a variety of groups, it took the President 26 days (Sept-10 through Oct-6) of the allotted 30 days. All this in a bid for the President to find a Prime Minister in which they would both avoid the pitfalls that plagued the last governments. And then it took nearly the same amount of time for the Prime Minister to appoint 10 ministers. A total of two months in which the government was not technically functioning. If the Prime Minister is voted out, and the same process is applied (assuming the President doubles his previous efforts to find an even better candidate), it could be until February until a new government is appointed. But that does not work with the schedule of the Parliament that will go into a three month recess come January. So it could be well into 2014 before we have a fully functioning government.

This comes at a time when Somalia is preparing to meet the requirements stipulated in 'The Deal'. One asks, is a vote of no confidence the right move now? Of course the President in the event the Prime Minister is voted out, could subsequently appoint a new PM that will appoint a full cabinet all before the general recess of the Parliament. Though this could have profound political ramifications for the President, that could undermine his political capital and his government.

Conclusion:
My conclusion is to ask, is this the path the President wants to take? Wouldn't the resignation of the Prime Minister be better than a Vote of No Confidence. If so, has the President been pursuing the later in an attempt to get the desired former?
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AbdiWahab252
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by AbdiWahab252 »

Perfect,

Taking it to the Parliament is more costlier, dollarwise and politically. It would offer an opportunity for Gurgure's enemies to mobilize and vote against the no confidence as a way of prolonging the disagreement between the PM & President. They would then attempt to play the PM who survived the attempted purge by the President resulting in gridlock.

So its much easier and prudent for the President to pressure his PM to resign but his tact left much to be desired. He should have asked Saacid to leave in mid 2014 in a dignified way.
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by SultanOrder »

AW- if what I am implying is correct, that a resignation is desired and not a vote, that way the deputy PM can become acting PM until a new one is nominated, and the government can continue to function. This is why the drastic actions the "president's ministers" were suppose to take according to the media weeks ago, that being their resignations from their posts, never materialized. As a matter of fact, not a single government official has spoken out in favor or against the current standoff, all continuing to do their day to day jobs as if nothing has happened, except the Prime Minister through his secretary and spokesman.

A vote is very costly for all parties. Xassan Sheikh might be playing a high risk gamble with Saacid and the governments international reputation he has been cultivating, all in an attempt to pressure a resignation, without compromising his plans. Saacid knows this, and is taking his sweet time to get favorable results. The question is, what are Saacid's objectives, does he really want to stay?

The IC is surely watching, and first it was the failures to secure Mogadishu from terrorist attacks, next it was the political standoff in Southern Somalia, the unending violence in Middle Shebbelle, the disconnect with Puntland, the fresh clashes in Jowhar, a resurging confident Shabab after internal clashes, and now a political standoff between the two Executives that harken back to the TFG-TNG area. Does Xassan Sheikh have the stomach for this?
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by sahal80 »

The point is if the pm resigns or loses the vote of confidence then the whole cabinet is dissolved by law.

Article 90 gives a lot of authorities to the president such as dissolving the govt in that case. Dissolving the parliament in these cases like when its term ends, dismissing the ministers on the request of the pm...appointing and dismissing the military officials, meets the ambassadors,

"To appoint The prime minister and to dissolve the federal government if it does not get the vote of confidence from the house of the parliament"
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by GeoSeven »

The resignation of an incumbent PM automatically results in the dissolution of the cabinet. They all know that. It probably won't take as long, I'd wager that the President already has a list of who he wants included in the next cabinet.

The new PM would probably consult and act swiftly in accordance with the presidents "suggestions".
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by AbdiWahab252 »

PO,

Xasan thinks he has the upper hand but what he fails to see is the long game: a strengthening opposition, the perception of this government being different than its predecessors is no longer the case and putting DamuJadiid in the public light instead of the shadows where they prospered. Saacid has less to lose as he was never a politician, and will use his golden parachute to return to his civilian life and join any future opposition movement.

Geoseven and Sahal,

What is your support for Gurguurte based on ?
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by sahal80 »

AbdiWahab252 wrote:PO,

Xasan thinks he has the upper hand but what he fails to see is the long game: a strengthening opposition, the perception of this government being different than its predecessors is no longer the case and putting DamuJadiid in the public light instead of the shadows where they prospered. Saacid has less to lose as he was never a politician, and will use his golden parachute to return to his civilian life and join any future opposition movement.

Geoseven and Sahal,

What is your support for Gurguurte based on ?

Absolutely. The whole "permanent govt" will lose its credibility in this split and it will put dam jadid and hassan sheekh in a hard position with his next pm so they better be careful.

It will depend on how the policy unit deploys its strategies not just its corrective tactics

Pm saacid takes the blame too, he knew they were going to get rid of him so he tried to change the system by not including them in the cabinet so he can deal with the president on his own in the future but he miscalculated the strengh of his opponents who had all the local political cards where the pm hadn't...

He takes some of the blame because after he had gone crazy they dismounted from their position and accepted his reshuffle of the cabinet but he sticked with his position of not including them.

The speaker is a professional man and is not that dirty like sharif hassan also is too old and has no energy for meetings he can only give the pm more time.



NO. I'm not with the president againist the pm. my analysis are based on sources and facts. according to the article 90, the president can declare state of emergency!!

he can do this if only two massive al shabaab attacks happens in the capital!!

Maybe I like dam jadid to stay in the power for geopolitical reasons also they have more national vision than the ethiopian and kenyan agents!!
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by GeoSeven »

AbdiWahab252 wrote:PO,

Xasan thinks he has the upper hand but what he fails to see is the long game: a strengthening opposition, the perception of this government being different than its predecessors is no longer the case and putting DamuJadiid in the public light instead of the shadows where they prospered. Saacid has less to lose as he was never a politician, and will use his golden parachute to return to his civilian life and join any future opposition movement.

Geoseven and Sahal,

What is your support for Gurguurte based on ?
He has a good character with more virtues than vices. I can't fathom how any other man would make a better situation of the political anarchy Hassan Sheikh inherited so there's no reason for me not to support him. He's as good as it gets.


Besides, Texans loved Bush :lol:
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Re: Vote of No Confidence

Post by AbdiWahab252 »

GeoSeven,

Hats off Adeer ! LMAO at Texans loved George Bush.
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