Somalia: UN Monitoring Group forewarns manipulations of 2016 Election

[Rambie]

Elections in regular intervals for accountability and opportunity of change of poorly performing political leaders are one of the fundamental pillars of democratic governance. But, the legitimacy of 2016 election in Somalia is hugely compromised in advance by the serious charges of corruption and abuse of power repeatedly leveled against the leaders of the federal government. Therefore, the 2016 election could provoke political and security turmoil.

The 2012 selection process of the members of the Federal Parliament has been characterized corrupt because the powerholders and the international community controlled the design and implementation of the process through ad hoc structures (technical committees) and financial resources for buy-in. Traditional leaders took cue from the deal-making, behavior, and messages of their duplicitous handlers.

Again, the 2016 election goes through the same 2012 manipulation process because with the agreement of the international community, the current powerholders at national and regional levels secured unchecked political influence and resources to manipulate the rules of the game. As a solution, it is necessary that qualified and independent actors familiar with local conditions assume the responsibility of designing the electoral framework, while each constituency should be allowed to take full control of the implementation phase without external interferences.

From the outset, top leaders of the federal government took control of the inclusion or exclusion of members in the Somali National Consultative Leadership Forum (SNCLF) formed under the initiative of the international community to find an alternative to the cancelled 2016 “one person one vote election.” Members of parliament, cabinet, and judiciary from Isaq community issued a protest petition in which they complain their exclusion from SNCLF and demand 33% quota as northern community (Somaliland).The SNCLF brings together ill-assorted actors as a national decision making body on an alternative electoral model. It supplants the constitutional federal institutions.

The first plenary meeting of the SNCLF held in the exclusive “Green Zone” inside Mogadishu Airport issued ten-point communiqué which reaffirmed the no term extension for the federal parliament and the president. It also approved a facilitation guide as a basis for national consultative process concerning the advantages and disadvantages of the following four electoral models:

Formation of “National Electoral Caucus (NEC)” to elect 275 parliamentarians. The NEC will vote for political parties. Each political party will nominate a number of parliamentarians in proportion to the total votes received.
Formation of “State Electoral Caucus” in each Federal Member State for the election of number of parliamentarians to be allocated to each federal member states including Hiiraan/Middle Shabelle State, and Benadir Region State.
Formation of “District Electoral Caucuses” in each of the 92 districts that existed before 1991. Each “District Electoral Causus” will elect 3 parliamentarians. The total members of the federal parliament will be 276.
Formation of “sub clan Electoral Caucus” under the 4.5 clan system. Each sub clan will elect its allocated representatives. This model replicates the clan-based representation certified by the 135 traditional leaders.

In December, the NCLF will review the results of the consultations to be held in six locations: Garowe, Adado, Jowhar, Mogadishu, Baidoa, and Kismaio, and will pick up one electoral model. In January 2016, a High Level Partnership Forum (HLPF) to be held in Mogadishu and UN Security Council will support the selected electoral model. The expectation is that the campaign of 2016 election will start in February and conclude in September.

But, any hopeful expectation for a legitimate election in 2016 is defeated by the publications of series negative reports against the federal government and regional administrations. On October 19, Somalia and Eritrea UN Monitoring Group (SEMG) issued another damaging report for political malpractice, corruption, and abuse of power committed at all levels of the Somali government. The report details the resurgence of Al Shabab threats and reemergence of intercommunal conflicts for the ineptitude of the federal and regional governments, the bungled federation process of Jubbaland, Galmudug, and Southwest regional States, the plundering of natural resources (oil and gas), the privatization of maritime space, the violations of the ban on charcoal export, the obstruction of humanitarian assistance, the targeted civilians, the stealing of Somali National Army budget, and the bribery of members of the federal parliament.

In the case of the Interim Galmudug Administration, the report depicts brazen level of electoral corruption. The Group received information that cash payments between USD 10,000 to USD 30,000 were paid before the first round of presidential election while promises of political appointees both in Galmudug State and the Federal Government- were used to secure support in the last two rounds. Similar electoral corruption flunks the federation process of Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions.

The integrity and neutrality of Galmudug technical committee and of the newly formed National Independent Electoral Commission have been sullied by the pervasive perception that the officials of both entities as operatives of “Damul Jadid cartel” who dominate the federal government. The SEMG report makes public the persistent speculation that “senior government officials are attempting to use the independent electoral commission to shape the design of a selection process to strengthen their position in 2016.” Thus, the report points out that, “in 2016 the political stakes will be higher as will the overall threat posed to peace, security and stability in Somalia if greater efforts are not made by all stakeholders to engage in the next transition process constructively.”

These serious warnings should get the attention of Somali Elite and the international community to act preemptively to save the inadequate and halting efforts of statebuilding and peacebuilding. Albert Einstein said, “Peace is not merely the absence of war but the presence of justice, of law, of order-in short, of government.” Baruch Spinoza added that peace is a virtue, a state of mind, a disposition for benevolence, and confidence. Indeed, claim of peace requires a lot more than claims of killing or repulsing suicide attackers after devastating human casualties and incalculable property destruction.

To obviate the grave concerns about the legitimacy of 2016 election, two constructive suggestions merit due consideration: (1) the recusal or removal of the leaders of the federal government and regional administrations from the participation in the 2016 political election and (2) the prevention of foreign influence and resources in the next election. Foreign and domestic manipulations will foment public disaffection and concomitant political and security instability.

Below are several reasons to persuade the powerholders to withdraw from the political competition in 2016:

The failure of implementing obligations outlined in the provisional constitution, the Somali Compact, the Vision 2016, the six pillars agenda, and the critical recommendations issued by more than 5 national conferences held in Mogadishu between 2013 and 2015.
The serious negative consequences on the legitimacy and performance of the federal institutions, civil servants, and security forces caused by political infightings that led to the removal of two prime ministers and their cabinet.
The constitutional breaches, abuse of power, corruption, and other illegal activities listed in the impeachment motion against the President.
The endemic corruption and misappropriation of public resources, the growing problems of governance, all reported in the last three UN Monitoring Group reports, the International Transparency reports, the International Crisis Group Briefings, Human Rights Watch reports, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General reports, and in the public opinions.
The paralysis and bribery culture of members of the federal parliament, accused of exchanging “votes for cash,” allegations now under consideration by the UN Security Council. The UN Monitoring Group writes, “The practice of “votes for cash” is so engrained that a network of brokers has emerged since the end of the transition, tasked with purchasing the allegiance of willing members of parliament and threating those that refuse.”
The suspension of international donor assistance due to the lack of confidence in the public financial management of the federal government.
The violation of the primacy of the principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and Somali interest.
The first permanent federal government of Somalia, established in 2012 after 12 years of transitional governments, not only squandered exceptional promising opportunities for Somali statebuilding, but it leaves behind intractable problems difficult to resolve within the next term. The participation of no law-abiding federal leaders and regional administrations in 2016 election will result impaired legitimacy and acceptability of predatory politics. Kleptocratic government is not eligible to design and manage elections.

[gegiroor]

Wonder why they never mention in these reports they issue on the IC backed Ethiopian efforts to undermine any peace and normalcy in Somalia. I never believe in anything they write. They are just one of those NGOs milking the endless saga and agony in Somalia.

[Rambie]

Wonder why they never mention in these reports they issue on the IC backed Ethiopian efforts to undermine any peace and normalcy in Somalia. I never believe in anything they write. They are just one of those NGOs milking the endless saga and agony in Somalia.

Yes, just like why they never mention in these reports they issue on SL backed Al-Shabaab efforts to undermine Somalia.

[Unionist]

This is not a conspiracy and is known throughout Somalia that there's severe corruption in the government.

The international community are sponsoring the corrupted leaders though. They could have created a independent anti-corruption board and prevented this nonesense in the first place.

[gegiroor]

Wonder why they never mention in these reports they issue on the IC backed Ethiopian efforts to undermine any peace and normalcy in Somalia. I never believe in anything they write. They are just one of those NGOs milking the endless saga and agony in Somalia.

Yes, just like why they never mention in these reports they issue on SL backed Al-Shabaab efforts to undermine Somalia.

But Eohiopia and Somaliland have one thing in common: Destabilizing the rest of Somalia, so peace and normalcy never returns. No Question that these 2 entities are using Al-Shabaab to deny peace and stability in JL, South, Central, and PL state of Somalia.

As long as the guerrilla in the room ignored, any other paper written about Somalia is useless.

You have two terrorist (Al-Shabaab) supporting entities: Ethiopia and its quasi, proxy entity of Somaliland.

F/ck the so-called IC (International Community) who placed an independent Somali Republic under the dominion of its most hated enemy: Ethiopia.

They need to lift the arms embargo from the Federal Government so Somali government can rebuild its security forces.

F/ck the UN
F/uck the West
F/ck AU

They are dismantling Somali Republic gradually and empowering Ethiopia at the sametime!

[Strategic]

anywho who believes UN MONITORING GROUP is a fool.

[Rambie]

Wonder why they never mention in these reports they issue on the IC backed Ethiopian efforts to undermine any peace and normalcy in Somalia. I never believe in anything they write. They are just one of those NGOs milking the endless saga and agony in Somalia.

Yes, just like why they never mention in these reports they issue on SL backed Al-Shabaab efforts to undermine Somalia.

But Eohiopia and Somaliland have one thing in common: Destabilizing the rest of Somalia, so peace and normalcy never returns. No Question that these 2 entities are using Al-Shabaab to deny peace and stability in JL, South, Central, and PL state of Somalia.

As long as the guerrilla in the room ignored, any other paper written about Somalia is useless.

You have two terrorist (Al-Shabaab) supporting entities: Ethiopia and its quasi, proxy entity of Somaliland.

F/ck the so-called IC (International Community) who're placed an independent Somali Republic under the dominion of its most hated enemy: Ethiopia.

Now wait a sec, in common sense, if they wanted to weaken Somalia, they would have
recognized SL long time ago. If they wanted Somalia to stay in the dark age, they wouldn't
plan and fund the massive offense in late 2011 until now. You like Arabs, there must be a conspiracy
to hold us all down! A typical Somali, always blame others on your own shortcomings, not yourself. You see,
this is why SL would never rise, lack of leadership & genuine motivation to move on. Did Ethiopia come on their own to
Somalia? Did Al-Shabab come on their own to Somalia? Did Kenya come on their own to Somalia? Simple answer is ...... NO!

Let's assume for a sec that you're right, US, UK Europe ... basically the whole world is against us.
What Somalis are doing about it? Nothing. Everyone wants to get as much money & assets before his term is over.
0 F is given to Somalia. So we need to stop this victim mentality & get our shit together instead of speculating on conspiracy theories.

[Rambie]

anywho who believes UN MONITORING GROUP is a fool.

Yeah, but everyone believing Caasimada Online or Jowhar.com is a genius miya?

[Strategic]

jowhar.com is non biased local somali newspaper but UN MONITORING exagerates etc nobody cares about them,they are irrevelent

[Rambie]

II think you got them wrong it's the other way around, Somali news papers can
be used as the definition of exaggeration and am sure Jowhar is no different. The only
Somali news paper that is going on the right track is Somali current which is the place where
I got this thread from. UN reports are far more reliable than your average Somali news paper and are much more professional
and extensive. While Somali newspapers only cut & paste from each other with a biased or favorite tone.

Look, just because it doesn't suite you or your community, doesn't mean it's not a good source.
I'll take it over any Somali source any day, Somali media will get you in circles just look at PL & it's one
direction media that brainwash Somali people & mislead diaspora.

[smooth]

Bambie

The report states the obvious, also the UN monitoring group is dominated by Jaberti's so it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I know a sacad guy that works for it, he is the one that produced the infamous Faroole's role in piracy with hard hitting facts and the massive deforestation by Kikuyu sponsored O.G's in Juba, the jaberti's however always state the obvious.

Corruption is everywhere, Siilaanyo forced a 2 year extension, Puntland is corrupt to the core selling off our waters to Iranian's, Jubaland with its deforestations etc. nothing wrong with HSM wanting to make sure he comes out on top in the next election, everyone else is making moves, nothing to see here.

[JSL3000]

May zoomalia burn in hell who gives a shiit about them, no one, bunch of useless imbeciles.

[Rambie]

Bambie

The report states the obvious, also the UN monitoring group is dominated by Jaberti's so it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I know a sacad guy that works for it, he is the one that produced the infamous Faroole's role in piracy with hard hitting facts and the massive deforestation by Kikuyu sponsored O.G's in Juba, the jaberti's however always state the obvious.

Corruption is everywhere, Siilaanyo forced a 2 year extension, Puntland is corrupt to the core selling off our waters to Iranian's, Jubaland with its deforestations etc. nothing wrong with HSM wanting to make sure he comes out on top in the next election, everyone else is making moves, nothing to see here.

Dominated with Jabarti's.



Which one is Jabarti, transport expert?



You need to stop the gossip sxb, you're turning into another Sahal.
Corruption is everywhere that's true, but it is in much greater scale in Xamar, a league i it's own.
Let me quote you here.

Bambie

Corruption is everywhere, Siilaanyo forced a 2 year extension, Puntland is corrupt to the core selling off our waters to Iranian's, Jubaland with its deforestations etc. nothing wrong with HSM wanting to make sure he comes out on top in the next election, everyone else is making moves, nothing to see here.

Of course there is something wrong, he's the official president
of Somalia, a nation of 12 million people, not president of business club in uni.
You state Siilanyo's 2 years extension as a sign of corruption but "there's nothing wrong
with HSM paying his way up for another 5 years term" Do you see the irony? At least Silanyo was
voted in by half of SL's population in a democratic and transparent elections that shocked the whole world.
While if you checked the 2013 UN report, you'd laugh on the comic procedure that picked HSM into presidency.
Most of the so called clan elders who suppose to represent their communities across Somalia are impostors and not
acknowledged by their own communities.





There is no space for comparison sxb, you're in a league on your own.

[smooth]

Bambie

Do you know who these UN monitoring group get there information from? who transmits the fact findings and reports? or do you believe they are actually on the ground, I know those very guys, they have several from every state, one of my closest friend a dhabacyo works for them? sxb stick to your Northern politic's, I feel almost embarrassed dignifying you with a response.

You haven't told us anything new, pretty much writing that stuff before that report was published, same with faroole's piracy, I was here writing it well before report was published because I knew, it was common knowledge in Gaalkacyo and Hobyo which I have visited several times

[cheifaqilbari]

anywho who believes UN MONITORING GROUP is a fool.

Hmm what about un General Secretary and every nation thats support the moqadisho Government. You can't be that daft. Every report these un guys write is read by every body ,nations who haa interest in moqadisho. And yes un report is more serious than jowhar news