- Moqokori last captured from Shabaab in 2018 after Shabaab had retaken it in 2016 after AMISOM Ethiopian had taken from them in 2012;
Ciidamada dawladda Soomaaliya ayaa saaka dagaal kula wareegay deegaanka Moqokori ee gobalka Hiiraan oo ay gacanta ku hayaan ururka Al-Shabaab.
https://www.bbc.com/somali/war-43231012.amp - Sinadhaqo & twin "Lebidulli" was also taken in
2021, and 2020, and 2018...
Saraakiisha howlgalka Ciidamada hoggaamineysay ay sheegeen inay Ciidamada la wareegeen deegaanada labi dule iyo sina dhaqo ee duleedka Magaalada Dhuusamareeb
https://allbalcad.net/2020/10/23/ciidam ... l-shabaab/
If after all the effort, this country ends up like Afghanistan, I will "not" be surprised.
Two years ago, I penned my thoughts regarding this loop and shared what I observed to be the disconnect between "capturing" territory from Shabaab and successfully "holding" that territory in the heartland of the country.
For anyone who thinks my criticism of this helpless obsession with force alone is predicated on opposing the current government, this is what I said under Farmaajo where even then, while endorsing security reform adopting stabilization, I said the only guarantee of success will be when and if the communities in the center decide they have confidence in socio-politico restitution and equity in the political process.
A campaign is one thing, but one without even a stabilization program whose importance the previous government had established recognition of in counter-insurgency---and one which seriously debates "arming clans" is a prohibitive and counter-productive strategy by all measure of established evidence and experience.Jowhar and Balcad were LIBERATED and among the first places outside of Mogadishu.
As you know SECURITY REFORM is the single biggest legacy of this government. Security reform is more than just fighting. It is also about STRATEGY. Extensive RESEARCH has found two major reasons for Al Shabaab's persistence in the center of the country...a sort of triangle between Kismaayo -Baidoa -Ceelbuur.
FIRST REASON is the amount of diversity of clans, dialects, and even societies (practically all so called "minority groups" from Somali Bantu to farming cooperatives) present that feel EXCLUDED and MARGINALIZED. They are the biggest source of fighters and recruiters and even safe havens for Shabab. These people have EQUALITY and even dignity to be honest under Shabab who make no distinction based on all the whimsical social conditions we have put in place here on earth. The Somali Bantu or Eyle boy is the same as the Abgaal or Hawiye boy in the neighborhood. Maybe even more important on account of Shabaab being dependent on the minority communities. This is why EVERYTIME THOSE AREAS WERE "CAPTURED, " THEY FELL BACK TO Shabaab the minute AMISOM and SNA moved on. That is because there is a POLITICAL AND SOCIO-CULTURAL problem more unique and prevalent here separate than all the other issues that were feeding insecurity generally.
...
The REAL challenge will be the "Gosha" area of Jubbaland (from Jamame and Jilib to Saakoow), the two Shabelle regions (Lower and Middle Shabelle) and the Hiran Region with the entire half west of the Shabelle River.
It is going to be very rocky interesting to see how this goes.
The "capture porn" preoccupation being fanned is nothing short of distraction from the hollow and bankrupt redudancy of this running "loop."
We have seen this "capture" scene; and it looks just like the one(s) before it that could not sustain a "hold."
