You want to know why Cayr has NOT been able to lead Galmudug thus far and probably will NOT be able to lead it anytime soon?
That's why
Cayr is not a very well "liked" political competitor in HG or central Somalia for that reason. The clan has a very hard time with understanding and even acting in a "politically nuanced" way regionally---so they are in effect in a self-contained unspoken "embargo" by the rest of Galmudug's communities for federal state leadership. This is a silent, politically reinforced "uniformity of behavior" by all the other constituent groups of Galmudug.
It is sort of what is displayed above in that it is fundamentally an expression of politically "reer baadiye" or "provincial" ---not very sophisticated display of "political behavior."
Who the hell in Galmudug will have Mahad Salaad lead them?
Mahad Salaad can be "appointed" by HSM to a position in his government----BUT MAHAD SALAAD CAN NEVER BE "ELECTED" GALMUDUG LEADER.
"Galmudug" is a dispensation where every single "district" is virtually autonomous.
Caabudwaaq is autonomous under Marehan. Cadaado is autonomous under Saleebaan. Dhusamareb is autonomous under Cayr, Hobyo is autonomous under Sacad.
The Shabaab controlled districts have politically autonomous representatives whose chief "whip" (or vote getter) is Gacal the Murursade. The Dir as well are even autonomous within autonomous districts.
"Autonomous" means this isn't fake Jubbaland dispensation or even the federally imposed Hirshabelle dispensation.
It means they came togethe through "wada ogol" or voluntary merger---and reserve all the authority for "withdrawing" from it.
Mahad Salaad will never chosen by a Galmudug electorate as leader of Galmudug even if HELL freezes over!
For #1 He is already Cayr---a clan Sacad and Saleebaan within Habar Gidir will both resist taking the central leadership within HG. It has always been this way and you need to ask them why. I am only telling you.
For #2 Mahad Salaad is considered controversial. Even if Marehan and HG, for example, can be on opposite sides of the table "nationally"----"REGIONALLY" IT IS THE INVERSE. They both lean on proactive working relationship. The regional leader must be someone uncontroversial or implicated in "reconciliation" or even if you will "smooching." You bring little junior USC leader and Marehan, which doesn't require much for giving the whole Galmudug dispensation the "middle finger" will give the middle finger and say I am out.
For #3 More than problematically, Mahad Salaad cannot even go to Balanbale Town without credible fear of "aano qabiil." There are specifically "Reer Siyaad Diini" in Balanbale Town who would shoot him between the eyes were he to ever step "foot" in Balanbale. Remember, I am "Reer Siyaad Diini" from Balanbale and you are reading this from the horses' lips.
If HSM tries to bring in Mahad Salaad, he will be a spectacular failure and I would even predict Qoorqoor will humiliate them with a landslide reelection.
Saleebaan and Marehan will join to actively reelect Qoorqoor and Gacal will join with them as a "stabilizing" rejection of Mahad Salaad's potential "disruption" to the "genteel" or "anti-controversial" way that Reer Galmudug know only too well is the only way that Galmudug can exist without dissolving on itself.
I don't know what Sacad would do, but they sure as hell will not vote for Mahad Salaad. They like him even less than Saleebaan do.
Recall "Fiqi" got kicked out of Galmudug politics with a humiliating firing as Galmudug Interior Minister after he brought his national politics to Galmudug----and his Sacad clan rather than even being "convinced" not to make problems themselves looked the other way and said "yeah he has to go; this is Galmudug; not Mogadishu national nonsense."
In Galmudug---there is a real "genteel" way of doing regional business because they don't want to offend or piss any autonomous group off.
Look at Galaal's daughter's "tone."
The reason why Mahad Salaad will never become Galmudug leader is EXACTLY because of what implicates the "tone" in which she expresses her support of Mahad Salaad.
Lady, I am "Reer Siyaad Diini" of Balanbale.
There is no such thing as a "Galmudug" recognized in Balanbale Town with Mahad Salaad as "leader."
Mahad Salaad can be your "leader" in "Guriceel" and you can call it whatever you want---Galmudug or Galceel.

QOOR-QOOR MAR KALE BAA WALLAHI KA DHACEYSO.
