I think 'most' significant development for Somalia in the next 50 years is MX & MJ elite socio-politico contract in work

[Gubbet]

I cannot stress both the "generational" importance as well as uniqueness of what is afoot.

The 'MJ' population doesn't yet understand it nor is prepared for it. The 'MX' population similarly doesn't yet understand nor is prepared for it.

The generation before 1969-coup, I call the "Kenadiid Group."

The generation before 2022, I call the "Siad Group"

Everything that had animated anti-MX views in MJ before 1991 was the resentment MX had destroyed the era of "Kenadid" with the 1969 coup.

Everything that animated anti-MJ views in MX after 1991 was the resentment MJ had destroyed the era of "Siad" with the overthrow in 1991.

Abdullahi Yusuf/Cumar Xaaji Massale typified the 'oldest' group of the post-1991 cohort since government reconstruction in 2000.

Faroole/Isaaq Biixi, Barre Hiiraale/Morgan sort of represent the middle group in that same time frame.

Farmaajo/Deni represented the last group within that same time frame.

The starting generational leadership is represented by folks like Ugas Mohamed Keyse of MX and Asad Diyano of MJ.

The laymen, or "people" do not understand it yet and their frame of reference is the continuation of the old grievances represented by the last group of that era still in power.

But they are on the way out.

For quite some time, especially with the result from Deni vs Farmaajo, and made more urgent by LA war---there is a natural paradigm that was already at work that has been clamoring to assert itself.

They have learned from 1976-1991 in 1969-2000 in 1950-2022.

Priorities are different (for example competing to be the number #1 Darod in "Muqdisho" has died completely a natural and uneventful deat with federalism), perspectives are different, even how they "relate" to each other is different.

Saaxo, for example, a politico-security 'partnership' btw MX and MJ to guarantee holding each other to account in mutual defense of Geladi grazing represents the practical trajectory that has been heading for birth as the basis of how they relate to each other.

A stabilization of this dynamic is the birth of a 'Darod' consensus in Somalia with all its lobbying, influence, resources, and capabilities singularly more substantive than any other 'socio-politico' organization among the Somali people.

There is a pot on the stove that has been cooking quietly.

It is starting to simmer---unbeknownst even to the members of the household.

Regardl, dinnner will be served.

[theyuusuf143]

Kolayba galmudug waa laydinka eryi doonaye , inaad majeerteen u tagtaan dantiina Ku jirta. You have no other option. Waaba haday Ku aqblaan , waayo idinka iyo harti gaagaabkuba waad dagaal badan tihiin , dagaalkana dhaqaale badan baa Ku baxa.

Mareexaan Vs habargidir
Dhulmahante Vs isaaq
Warsangeli Vs isaaq
Cumar maxamuud Vs Sacad
Isis Vs puntland
Fakhri

Waxaas oo dagaala in la galaa ma fududa , puntland imikayba bankruptcy gashay. Mashaariicdii horumar ka oo dhan baa is taagay.

[SadSayyid]

Brother Gubbet I'd disagree. The 2 Majeerteen states pre-colonialism had two different titles, Boqor and Sultan. Remember it was the Sultanate of Hobyo who signed the first protectorate treaty. The Majeerteen back then were not united, it was an MJ who killed Abdirashid Ali Shermake AUN.

The Kenadiid generation you speak of is "Abdullahi Isse", the HG prime minister pre-independence. After refusing to aid the colonialists with their war against the Dervishes they had to be physically brought under control. Their admission into the Italian protectorate/administration wasn't done willingly and so they see anyone ruling in Xamar without their input as foreign. After President Abdirashid was assassinated the MJ put forward Haji Muuse Boqor Osman AUN as his replacement as he was the rightful "heir". The Majeerteen has sovereignty over their territory and see Puntland the same way. They do not have greviances with MX or Siad Barre but with HAG. The Kacaan might have neutered the MJ in Xamar politically but the HAG looted, plundered and expelled them. It's incomparable.

I wouldn't call it the Kenadiid generation, as Kenadiid was a rival to the Boqors and its the Boqor who is head of the "Majeertenia" . I wouldn't call it the Siad Barre generation either has their elites today aren't made by Siad Barre. They killed each other in the 4 month war and lost most of their intellectuals to either war or exile. These goons in Xamar made their careers in NGO's or government contracts.

Whatever clan prejudice they had towards MX is long gone. They were the only clan faction to put down their guns and work with Siad Barre AUN. They had legitimate greviances with Farmaajo and his snake of an educational minister.

Much like how an internal MJ fued saw Siad Barre rise to power it was an internal Abgal fued that saw Farmaajo come to power. MX are not to be blamed but HAG. They brought Farmaajo to power and out of "Hawiyenimo" got rid of him. Deni and Madobe did not care about "Daaroodnimo" but "interests". These people in Xamar have no "interests" other than to loot the government treasury.

[Gubbet]

No Sad Sayid, you have missed the 'forest' for the 'trees.'

You are sitting there absorbed with the 'trees' when the consequential matter is the 'forest.

Kenadid and Siad are perfect choices for names of the 'two' periods which form the main parts of the timeframe.

It doesn't mean Kenadid was alive or relevant in the 50-60's or that Siad was alive and relevant in the 90's, 20's.

What they represent is the personification of the 'frame of reference.'

You see 'Kenadid' really represents that MJ were the political center pre-1969 starting with the institutionalization of Kenadid's "Sultanate of Obbia" and 'Siad' represents the the MX were the political center post-1969 starting with the institutionalization of Siads "Revolutionary Somalia."

Deni is the last generation in MJ whose formative experience was implicated in 'SSDF' worldview which was grounded in having foundational aspirations resulting from belonging in 'Kenadid era' and Farmajo the last generation in MX whose formative experience was implicated in "Kacanist" worldview which was grounded in having foundational aspirations resulting from belonging in "Siad era."

For the first time in almost a century, we have a generation coming to power in both groups who hold no formative experience in either time frame and whosr foundational aspirations really result from the 'harrying of Darod' in civil war Somalia.

Caydiid made no distinction between the MX of Siadnnor the MJ of Kenadid and equally saw both as merely two sides of the same coin.

That has been the implication in ebbs and flows and the absolute categorization of Deni and Farmajo as thr same 'two sides of the same coin' by HSM and his politics HAG-ism was the absolute reinforcement of the experience of the post-1991 just when the first generation of Darod to be coming to power are with foundational experience post-1991.

There is a lot of mutually shared recounting of stock in the two groups where, for the first time in a very, very long time, 'what' they have in common is by far and large more substantive and relevant than what divides them.

This is a very dynamic development.

[SadSayyid]

Brother Gubbet I see what you mean. It was from Keenadiid that MJ leadership in SYL came from. The point you're making is that MX and MJ elite will not be competing against each other for leadership in Xamar in the age of clan federalism so there will no areas of friction.

Trends in politics are measured in decades/centuries and so going forward it'll be good to see Darod no longer at each others throats.

[Gubbet]

Absolutely that "trends" are even "multi-generational."

Often, people implicated "within" a trend do not even comprehend that they are 'part' of a 'trend.' Essentially, what is merely their "reality" they incorrectly imagine as what is "truth."

Sure, one's "reality" is what "truth" LOOKS like to them, but that's because they fail to take into consideration their 'perspective' is merely 'fact' as it EXISTS to them rather than 'fact' as it is ESTABLISHED (by evidence, reason, etc).

In other words;

Reality: Your mother and father do not share the same house and are always fighting when they meet.

Presumption: They hate each other, and/or have always hated esch other, and will hate each other.

Truth: Since choosing to marry each other 15 years ago, this is the 2nd time your father temporarily moved out due to an argument.

Presumption: Your parents are merely having a momentary spat.

I used to be extremely inconsiderate of Majerten. That was the normative Marehan position and it was the same in return from Majerten. That is what is implicated "within" the trend.

Until I started to understand the history---really understand it with my saying it would not be considered arrogant of me by anyone who reads this forum if I say I understand Somali history more substantively then the vast, overwhelming average of Somalis.

So when, as a result of that, my perspective changed and my engagement on this topic reflected it, Mr Sinister once responded "stop asking for my help." What can he help me with? Forget even now, did I implicate 'help' from him to take back even Gedo Region AFTER it had been captured and occupied by USC? I mean the only that explained his response was the absorption and limitation of being "within" the trend. And that goes for a guy like Nomand who sort of represents the inverse of Mr Sinister from the Marehan perspective.

We are living in a 'trend' but that is only transitory, it is not rooted. I am 100% confident there are different trends to be implicated in the future BECAUSE I understand now that there were different trends implicated in the 'past.'

Even now in and since the hostilities of this trend, just going back, there is;

-Development of Saaxo as a socio-politico guarantee in mutual defense of Galaadi grazing
-Development of mutual understanding regarding both Mudug and Doollo fault
-Consistent support implicated during hostilities concerning both groups as a security guarantee that they are both mutually "strong" on their two frontiers (MJ provision of vast amount of medical aid to MX during hostilities of the last two decades in central Somalia, particularly during the Xeraale conflict is equal to any amount of support MX can claim having given MJ during the Gaalkacyo hostilities)

And before modern period;

-They fought on the same side in rebellions including the CeelBuur rebellion
-They fought on the same side in the defense of Galaadi-Qorof grazing
-They, plus neighboring OG are implicated together as moving to Jubbaland "as" Darod (people really underestimate the importance of this point in favor of the subjective, self-absorbed I sub-clan X when the fact they as "Darod" are implicated together is an extremely important point about why they even came to be together in beyond the Jubba.

Etc etc etc

Things aren't rosy and Somalis are infamously emotional, limited in sight and perspective, and there are profound grievances implicated by hostility---but the truth is those are not causative factors, they correlate or more importantly are themselves "effects."

We are entering a watershed moment when the "natural" implications of what "underpins" trends is momentarily opening up for "reconfiguration" in this subject---adding/introducing/replacing new factors that will then underpin the following generational trends.

[Gubbet]

Since those thoughts, oddly and even intriguingly, the last generation of the Kenadiid-Kacaan timeframe whom I write above would end/leave with the old political discord remarkably and even surprisingly have started to show early movement on this trajectory.

This is not simple my enemy's enemy is my friend.

Marehan and Majerten have been almost constant in their political opposition to each other even as the opposition in this timeframe.

This is unprecedented and represented very ironically by even the lower diya-paying groups of both Kenadid and Siad Barre of the past-

1. Kulane Jiis defended Puntland's electoral exercise
2. Fr President Farmaajo followed with unprecedented moral legitimacy

1. Fr PM Omar Abdirashid defended the legitimacy of Gedo's Jubbaland grievance
2. Puntland President Deni followed with unprecedented moral repudiation of the Gedo blockade

Ladies and Gentleman, these are generationally significant movements.

[grandpakhalif]

Maxamuud Saleebaan and Reer Diini putting aside their differences to defeat Culusow is one thing I would have never imagined. HAG and Idoor have united Darood indeed

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Maxamuud Saleebaan and Reer Diini putting aside their differences to defeat Culusow is one thing I would have never imagined. HAG and Idoor have united Darood indeed

I never liked the Pacers

[Murax]

Puntland has shown real Tolnimo, and ofcourse MJ. We should learn from the last 1991, and this time realize at the end of the day we should preserve the relationship

[Gubbet]

Ugaas Keyse of Sade, Gen Biixi, Xildhibaan Bood, MX businessmen, politicians, and traditional leaders from both Galmudug and Jubbaland have arrived in Garowe to much fanfare.

Remember what I said earlier this year;

The "Gentleman's Agreement" that was forming btw Marehan & Harti re: Darod "Somalia".
PostSun May 28, 2023 7:40 pm

Before the year is out, I expect a seriously affirmed, elucidated, well argued and defined, "common sets of principles" about what implicates Darod "Somalia" foundationally at the national level.

[Nomand]

Talk about misplaced priorities. Why the hell do we care if majerteen about to start and internal civil war?

Walaahi we are our own worst enemy.

[Gubbet]

You know Nomand, I realize I don't need to write you essays you will never respond to.

And it is absolutely vital to Somalia's interest, Darod interest (SSC), as well as Marehan interest that Majeerteen not destroy over 20 years of work that built Puntland, a bedrock founding part of Federal Somalia.

This visit is auspicious and even the events and timing are auspicious.

Perpetual enmity, standoffishness, And irrationality is our worst enemy.

[Nomand]

People who for the last 50 years have been siding with anyone but marehan. Fueling everyone of your conflict. Created badbaado qaran against you.

Armed dir against you armed hg against you. Have been politically supporting madoobe to spite you. Somehow you want to help them?

No wonder mx are in the gutter.

[Gubbet]

People who for the last 50 years have been siding with anyone but marehan. Fueling everyone of your conflict. Created badbaado qaran against you.

Armed dir against you armed hg against you. Have been politically supporting madoobe to spite you. Somehow you want to help them?

No wonder mx are in the gutter.

They didn't arm Dir against Mareexaan, they didn't arm HG against MX, that's just ridiculousness ever uttered by exact individuals and both on this forum. In fact Majeerteen has not taken sides against Marehan in an war or battle since 1991 except in the Kismaayo and the Reer Bicidyahan-Celi tussle. Majeerteen does not even take sides against Mareexaan in Doollo and with Ogaadeen Kablalax there or anywhere that was outside of Kismaayo.

And what Dir are you talking about? Xeraale? Abdullahi Yuusuf the shaqsi with Dir reer abti was involved in that issue. Did Farmaajo ask Marehan for permission regarding anything?. In fact do you think Caabudwaaq had an airport or bigger medical facilities then? Who do you think was treating MX wounded? It certainly wasn't Dhusamareb and Xamar.

And finally, Mareexaan had not shown Majeerteen anything to like and Farmaajo was an ideological threat to their larger ongoing equity war vs Mogadishu.

"Started badbaado Qaran." Like how Deni and Puntland is making Hassan Sheikh having had enacted ECONOMIC EMBARGO, FLIGHT SANCTION ON XAJ PILGRIMMAGE, WAGE THEFT, WND EVEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS EL NINO STORM DISPLAY THAT LEVEL OF VINDICTIVENESS (WHICH WILL HAVE A PRICE PAID IN FULL)?

Really you need to stop dude. That is what animates both Marehan and Majerten in their little ego contest, misinformation and manufactured nonsense.

Your nemesis is not Majeerteen.

It is Culusoow, the Mogadishu CITY-STATE, and CENTRALISM..

You have no idea what Marehan priorities are.

I am done with this conversation.