...which I won't, but since they keep sending the mindlessly bankrupt nuisance to implicate a follow up, intaan ku quus qaata; an epilogue;
Gubbet wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:46 pm Saddam, Phase 2 is a different war.
Marehan will become target of COOPTING. He wlll be spoiled, lavished, and crowned.
This is already even possibly at work, but will certainly start the day the Court officially rules in favor of Somalia and international law on Kenya-Somali maritime delimitation is written in stone.
Britain and Kenya will reorient a 100 year mistake they weren't even aware existed but understand very clearly now.
The aim of Marehan for themselves and for Somalia should be good relations with everyone, but whether 1) Marehan is coopted and becomes a darling foreign puppet or 2.) Marehan establishes a mutually positive relationship for the interest of all parties remains to be seen.
https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 1#p4995076
Marehan is a clan of many talents for Intrigue.Gubbet wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:44 pm It is not that simple and US and British do not have mutually exclusive competition at that level in Somalia. They aren't China and US.
Also, their interests are defined by lateral issues thus far, they aren't perpendicular.
The US interest isn't yet "economic." It is still largely defined by security. Recently, the US interest has naturally evolved with the development of a very politically engaged Somali-American community. So the more this develops, the more US relationship to Somalia becomes more intimate sort of like the US relationship with Philippines where Filipino-Americans have carved a huge personal dynamic to it.
So far, the Scandinavian countries have exhibited the fastest development of this trajectory.
The Brits will no doubt be doing as well (in a declining scale they have exhibited some aspect of this with Somaliland since 2000), but the British interests RIGHT NOW are predicated around the large business investments they have in the region, most notably in Kenya. So unlike the US, they already have serious business investments that will situate the effect of their influence. This influence is no longer overtly predatory or singularly powerful, but whatever is good for Kenya in Somalia, the British will absolutely try to facilitate as much of it as possible.
Phase 2 will reflect this very strongly because Phase 1 was driven by Kenyan adventurism sometimes very much at odds with British advice. This time a humbled Kenya will listen and even seek advice and since Phase 2 is not material and physical aggression but diplomacy and soft power, the Brits will be very involved.
Marehan will come under heavy pressure for coopting. The why makes this inevitable, but the How and the When remains to be seen as well as the What Marehan responds to this with.
https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 1#p4995093
Keep the nuisance in check.
