My previous statement about HY;
Keep in mind these were a read of the trajectory on February 12th, one week into Muuse's war against Las Anod. 7 months later---well you be the judge.
https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 5#p5040362Gubbet wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:37 pm Yuusuf, you don't understand.
Something changed when Muuse attacked Las Caanood. Especially at the time the ceasefire was declared with 4 days of shelling. Something very profound.
The fight against Siad went from state rebellion to clan civil war when USC went from building system to attacking Darod.
In my read, Somaliland state building project is over. This is just the dust storm before it settles.
Habar Yoonis and Garxajis will revolt when they realize the dust has settled.
It is exactly as I thought as a possibility before the war even started when I made the comparison to Abgaal, Habar Gidir, and Murusade during USC and HA, GX, and HJ in Somaliland.
Wey dhamaatay sheekadaas. Idinkaa gacantiina ku dilay watiinaad afkaaga ka tiri let the battle start.
Waxa soo socda iyo webiga jiinkiisa yaa wayn baan hada taaganahay!
The possible scenario going forward as first stated on February 12th in that same topic;
https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 5#p5040628Halki waxaad taagantihiin rer Koonfureedki taagnaayeen 1991 lakin inagu soo dhamaysanay the full relay---the bad, the ugly, the edbin, the potty training, etc. None of us would want to repeat it and we do not be grudge you.
I will tell you right now what is in store;
1. Las Caanood waad ku jabi.
2. Waxaad ka ruqaansan adiga oo kala jabay.
3. 3dexdiina beelaha waaweyn Sh Isaaq baa islu jeedsan
4. Waad is cuni doontiin lakin unlike 1995 kala reyn meysiin definitively.
5. Most likely Garxajis will be predominant lakin xata HY and Ciidagale way isku jeedsan ka bacdi oo sii fican bey labo unit u kala noqon.
6. HA will turn West and seek closer relations with Gudabiirsi, you HJ will turn east and apologizing seek closer relations with Dhulbahante. Your relationships (you with Dhullo and Sacad Muuse with Gudabiirsi) will be co-equal at best and deferential at most with your neighbors.
6.HY will become the most dominant unit of former Sland but far short of majority or central power and you will try to contain them.
7.Ciidagale, Ciise Muuse, Arab, Ayuub will float along from orbit to orbit with Cidagale the most independent of the 3rd leven powers.
8. Habar Yoonis will bring everything to bear to realize forming for themselves finally implication in Berbera to share with Ciise Muuse the Berbera designation. Ciise Muuse will be the most egregiously burdened within Isaaq because of this reason. HY will succeed in this effort.
9. HJ will be the 2nd most burdened completely being forced to look east of Burco with Burco the most segregated town in the north.
10. Hargeisa will decline and go into a coma barely holding on because she will still be kept on life support by Ciidagale but Sacad Muuse will divest to concentrate solely on Gebiley where they can guarantee ownership.
May God prevent you from this and I am not claiming this WILL happen, but if it happens do not find yourself surprised.
We have seen this trajectory play out in 10 different variations reincarnated between and WITHIN clans to which, seeing by your present implication in this mindless development, you are really more alike and representative of than you ever imagined or could want.
Garxajis War Manifesto (chilling for the depth of grievance)
Recent build up arms and tribal militias
Just moments ago
