Analysis of Somalia - Current Situation

[James Dahl]

Puntland is disintegrating, the Dulbahante want to leave, the Warsangeli already have left, and the two biggest Majerteen subclans are feuding. Abdullahi Yusuf's Omar Mahmud still figure they run things, but so do Adde Musa's Isman Mahmud, who have been increasingly alienated from the TFG, and other, smaller Harti are looking elsewhere entirely, with at least one Sultan in Asmara.

The Marehan have completely broken with the TFG, and have taken over Jubaland, with the TFG virtually impotent to do anything about it, as the Hawiye of Mogadishu have all their forces tied up there. This also prevents them from responding to a huge military buildup of ICU in the south, and banditry throughout Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, and Upper and Lower Shabelle.

Everyone the TFG has pushed aside, thrown out, or otherwise abused have all met up in Asmara and have allied together into a combined force.

The TFG therefore has lost its biggest Somali support, is losing the remainder of its support, and has forced all of its opponents into the arms of the ICU, who is building a huge army to overthrow them. Ethiopia's mandate has long since expired, and this is fast becoming Ethiopia's Vietnam War.

[Koronto91]

Good analysis. The Mbagathians have managed to alleniate themselves from everyone, which works greatly for the UIC.

[DawladSade]

The backbone of the TFG and the only support they care about is the 80,000 strong Ethiopian Armed Forces in Mogadishu.

[Koronto91]

Dawladsade,

The Marehan really focked things up for the Mbagathi regime after kicking Af-gadud out of Jubba. The only city they cling on to is Mogadishu.

Does that mean Mogadishu=Somalia?

[Luq_Ganane]

The only problem is Eithopia is a nation of over 70 million. They don't care how many of there Oromo conscripts die in Xamar or elsewhere, they'll just keep sending them out like bats. The real liberation shall come when, the millions of dollars flowing from Washington to Addis Ababa is stemmed somehow. Only then will Zenawi have his troops out of there in a New York minute.

[The-Screw]

virtually impotent now where have i heard that recently?

[James Dahl]

[quote="Luq_Ganane"]The only problem is Eithopia is a nation of over 70 million. They don't care how many of there Oromo conscripts die in Xamar or elsewhere, they'll just keep sending them out like bats. The real liberation shall come when, the millions of dollars flowing from Washington to Addis Ababa is stemmed somehow. Only then will Zenawi have his troops out of there in a New York minute.[/quote]

Ethiopia doesn't have unlimited cash, and can only afford to arm and equip their soldiers for so long. Yes they can send a virtually unlimited number of soldiers, but those soldiers all eat food, fire ammunition, and their vehicles all burn fuel, not to mention the active duty paycheque they all collect. All these things cost a lot of money, and it's money Ethiopia can't afford to keep hemorraging forever.

Even America, the richest country on earth, has problems financing their army in Iraq. Ethiopia's army may be far less expensive (maybe 1/1000th), but Ethiopia's economy is also FAR weaker (1/10,000th), so the drain on Ethiopia's economy is the equivalent of 10 Iraq wars.

[Luq_Ganane]

Well, Mr. Zenawi's coffers have been flowing, and he's made out very well for himself and his political party. His plan is to come out of Somalia with a profit, so as soon as the payouts stop coming from washington, he will just as soon pull out. He's a smart man, and has accumulated millions, of millions of dollars. The bad news is, America is more than able to sustain this for as long as they feel they need to.

[DawladSade]

[quote="Koronto91"]Dawladsade,

The Marehan really focked things up for the Mbagathi regime after kicking Af-gadud out of Jubba. The only city they cling on to is Mogadishu.

Does that mean Mogadishu=Somalia? [/quote]

Mogadishu is the capital of Somalia. Even if it was one of the most smallest cities in Somalia, a government would only get legitimacy if it were based in the capital.

Teeda kale Marehan are anti-ICU, so really we are not a threat to the Ethiopians so they have no reason to come to Kismaayo to further Abdullahi Yusuf's tribal ambitions.