Danger of a power vacuum in Somalia

[James Dahl]

The TFG is dead, I think this is obvious to even the most ardent supporters now.
http://politics.nationmedia.com/inner.asp?sid=1827

This news does not gladden me in the slightest though. While the TFG was a fundamentally corrupt and divided institution, it was an administration with a base of support, as was the UIC. What we are going to be left with is, once again, a country without a government.

Sadly, if rewinding the clock to 2005 was the only consequence of this, that would be fine, but it looks as though southern and central Somalia will soon be left a country without ANY government. At least after 1998 pseudo-administrations and warlord fiefdoms created localized administrations, even if most of the time these were brutal feudal dictatorships, but right now the country is wide open. There is only one group that will be left, who will basically inherit the country by default.

al-Shabab.

The thing is, al-Shabab has not established any administration, in fact they have been forced NOT to due to their need to stick to hit and run tactics. Any administration they do build will be fundamentally flawed like the Taliban was, precisely because it would be built by rebels who only know the Koran and the AK-47.

As I see it, there is only one option left, and it is the one option that noone will go for, but it's the ONLY option. The ARS, TFG and Shabbab need to form a government of national unity, each with 25% of the power, and the remaining 25% to bring in the other power brokers. The Ethiopians need to get out of the country, and completely neutral peacekeepers brought in, like Indians and Chinese or something.

The clock is ticking...

[galia]

James Dahl, thats unacceptable and completely flawed thinking, we cannot reject an occupation only to be replaced by another one, plus after we did all the hard work of defeating the ethiopians the UN can't just step in, where were they when the ethiopians invaded somalia and where killing the somali people on a daily basis, oh yes it was them that helped ethiopia commit genocide against the somali people so they cannot be trusted.

I know we somalis can do this and unite our peoples ourselves once the ethiopians are driven.

Al-Shabaab is the military wing of the UIC, once ethiopians are driven out of somalia, leaders like Sheikh Shariff will land in Mogadishu airport and the somalis will choose who will be their figure head.

Whoever the somali population want, we will accept.

Al-Shabaab and others would be happy once Sharia law is implemented as the somali national law, the rest of the work can be done by pros such as Sheikh Ibrahim Addow.

Al-Shabab will not take part in the legislation of somalia but we would mold them as part of the new somali national armed forces, where Al-Shabaab will be the best trained fighters in the national somali armed forces just like the SAS.

[*jr]

Nice theory Galia, too bad you will never know the answer to your thoughts.

[James Dahl]

If the Shabbab accepted the whole ARS in as the new government, and they stayed as the military, I think that would be ok. Without the TFG in a government of national unity there would be more fighting for at least a year though, and it wouldn't be an inclusive government. Without the TFG that also means the whole northeast isn't part of the new government. If the Shabbab brings in just the UIC and not the rest of the dissident parliamentarians that Sheikh Sharif formed his coalition with, that also disenfranchises non-Islamist factions which means even more territory isn't part of the government including Gedo, Galgadud and Galmudug, and add another year to the fighting in the Jubas.
If the Shabab refuses to even bring the UIC into a new government, and Mukhtar Robow declares himself Emir of Somalia, then not only all those problems above but ALSO there's intra-resistance fighting, as the UIC and Shabab fight each other, so yet ANOTHER year more of fighting.

That's assuming there isn't complete social collapse by that time, which isn't guaranteed.

Better to form a government of national unity.

Also I didn't say UN peacekeepers, UN is a joke and the US and EU run the thing. I said Indian or Chinese peacekeepers, maybe some gulf arabs. Someone without a history there who could be an honest broker.

[galia]

Yes, it is much better to have a government of national unity, one that would work for the interest of Somalia and the Somali people (plus also being sympathetic to our peoples struggle in Ogaden and NFD).

I don't like the idea of chinese or Indian troops in Somalia, i don't trust them.

[eternauta]

There's no hope whatsoever in the TFG or secular government. Somalia's only hope is Al-Shabaab or Sharia-based government.

[Adan*5]

Small chance for that to happen..Now there is great war in somalia where Unity is taking shape,,its actually unique in somali history..after the overthrow of the unifying ICU somali force,the main goal of the enemy was return to the tribal wars and choas..but the opposite happened ,it fired back on them ..We are on Route masha Allah

[kadarre]

Well we will see

[Adan*5]

horta why threads is moved fast when i reply

[Shirib]

Mukhtaar Robow as Emir of Somalia.

We will be ruled by Sharia, no need for clan representation.