How the IOG weathers the political storm of the neighbouring

[labo22]

The President Ismail Omer Guelleh known as IOG have many similarities with ruling strong man of Somaliland Mr Kahin who tries to rule his little experiential self declared Somaliland in absolute anarchy after he exhausted every avenue to stay in Power with behind the scene of moral and material support from IOG, Mr Kahin tried his best to delay the election as much time as possible to the point that put his country in constitutional crisis so that the legit election could never take place at all, Mr Kahin is in a suicide mission, his double jeopardy game is that If I loose the power you will all loose with me. This however seems the same strategy that IOG is employing thus far, Waiting game, tight lips and surprise action for opposition parties around the deadline of any constitutional manoeuvre. IOG interest is that the constitutional crises couldn’t be resolved peacefully to prove that his style of dictatorship to Western countries is only way of peace and stability.
The IOG is monitoring the situation as closely as possible because the outcome of this crisis might well be affecting the Djiboutian local politics ,as he would like or hinted to run for 3rd term that he wouldn’t entitle to according to the constitution that he was drafted by himself, would he PooPoo the same way his counterpart Mr Kahin did ?, one thing for sure that as Djiboutian, we wont need like Ethiopian mediator from distant land we already have western heavy weight in our backyard, we wonder what French and American make them stones so far, would they be working very hard behind the scene?, what make them unusually very quiet these days or would they be waiting for each other, who would make the first move so as not antagonize the ruling moron first? If that is the case, it seems that they are playing cat and mouse game, we also know that they don’t like surprises but then again the IOG is running out of time and out of options, where are their favourite guys? less than two years remaining the mandate of IOG, it is about time that we could have rough sketch as to who that future leader might be in order to continue stability of the country and for that matter the hole region which in continuous crises. Or the western countries can pack and leave that is an option for them if choose so, anyways they are well positioned strategically for any emergency evacuation, mainly they are concentrated in and around airport and around coastal area where they can safely exit.
Farther evidence is that the Issayas Afewerki of Eritrea, Males Zenawe of Ethiopia, IOG of Djibouti are rootless dictators we can all agree on that point, they are all allies of western countries except Issayas Afewerki of Eritrea who himself was one time the daring of western countries now the menaces of same power whom are supported him earlier, he tries every opportunity he gets to expose the western strategic interest of the region and how the western countries trying to break up Somalia into small regional administration that can come directly under Ethiopian region of the so called Somali State and indirectly under Ethiopian government, there are many regional ethnic administration in Ethiopia the one and only given a tricky name “Somali State of Ethiopia” is the Somali region of Ethiopia so that other remaining Somali regional Government like Somaliland, Puntland and many more others to follow should align under that system, as recent recorded events shows us that Somaliland and Puntland are already under Ethiopia through the Somali State of Ethiopia, every major disputes with in Somaliland and Puntland are normally reconciled through the Somali State of Ethiopia, According to the western government plan revealed by Mr Isaiah of Eritrea and others they didn’t put into account that Somalia becoming under or part of Ethiopia could change the sectarian population make up, according to the government census a little more than 50% of the population are Christian if you add seven million Somalis about 10% of the population of Ethiopia, Somalis 99% Muslim it could change the out of sectarian population make up in Ethiopia, It is same forcing Israeli and Palestinian in one country instead two state solution, speaking hypothetically Israel could have a Palestinians Prime Minister If true democracy is apply!!
IOG comes up with desperate immoral tactics with the help of US a war between Djibouti and Eritrea were initiated that Djibouti could fight a proxy war for the US, it is mutual benefit for both the US and Djiboutian dictator IOG. The benefit for IOG is that the war out side could rally a support within for patriotism and also could create the unity that has been absent through IOG’s regime, on the other hand the US having military base in Djibouti is direct threat to Eritrea and the US could farther politically isolate Eritrea at the same time creating an other war front in order to stretch thin the limit of military man power of Eritrea. The border between Ethiopia and Eritrea is monitored by the UN so the only place that the Ethiopia with support of the US could invade into Eritrea is through Djibouti and that has happened already; would Eritrea become another Granada or Iraq regime change style? We have seen a huge Ethiopia military movement through Djibouti toward Eritrea. Ethiopia is training Djiboutian military with the US co-ordination and support of the US, isn’t paradoxical Djiboutian military have been training Somali Transitional Federal Government TFG, at the same time Djiboutian military are trained by Ethiopia the arch enemy of Somalia, here the picture doesn’t add up, however in this way already the four out of the five parts of Somalia: north east (former British colony), south (former Italian colony), Ogaden or western Somalia (already under Ethiopia) and Djibouti (former French colony) are in one way or other comes under Ethiopia rule,
IOG has major many front to fight for his political survival in domestic he has a fierce opposition that he continuously oppresses with no human right regards, the western power by not criticising him his heavy handed style, they could pressure him in a different way behind the scene, as we all know when it comes to the western power they don’t let go any crime that has been committed by some body else unpunished , the least they can do is use as bargaining chip for their interest that is when IOG comes handy and bow to the pressure, crimes are committed in US and French military camps by the French and US that has not been reported and the specific cases that has reported have gone unpunished, these alleged crime couldn’t make it the to court due the IOG intervention, The embattled IOG can’t legally defend his own people that he claims to be responsible for or else he would face the consequence of the many atrocity he committed that is already on file.
Generally asymmetrical relationship differing little from previous African–Western patterns, alongside support of authoritarian governments at the expense of human rights, make the economic consequences of increased Chinese involvement in Africa mixed at best, the western government’s foreign policies need to be overhaul, clearly it is not working when it comes to its former colonies especially in Africa, and they need to think long term development for the sake of majority population, They also need to forget the elite rulers or dictators that are protecting for sake of their interest, it is almost half a century that the strategy to deal the Third World was the same, it has little or nothing to show for the majority of the black continent, all the time the western governments do the lip services, on public they loudly and tirelessly advocate for democracy, transparency, good governance and human right, well not only they turn their back what they say on public but also they support the same leaders they were condemning, the western leader are credible to whom elected them but they aren’t liable for Third for World nation, so it preferable that they should limit and cut back their public relations hypocrisy and rhetoric , If they can’t walk the walk. Clearly there is always an alternative to the old system, laissez-faire of a western theory, it cost them the collapse of their own Capitalist system,
Chinese style does a concrete physical mega project for long term in return to exploit the natural resource. In this case even if the dictator is gone on one way or the other there are something to show for the future generation. China's Africa interest is part of a recently more active international strategy based on multi polarity and non-intervention. Increased aid, debt cancellation, and a boom in Chinese-African trade, with a strategic Chinese focus on oil, have proven mutually advantageous for China and African state elites. By offering aid without preconditions
Finally Somaliland political fiasco that could spill over to Djibouti, IOG has to contain the tension or make it work for his advantage, as he gives his corrupt advice, moral and material support to his cousin Mr. Kahin president of self declared Somaliland. Isn’t about time that our heavyweight uncle to divorce our mother, we deserve leaner, gentler, more caring and more understanding uncle after all “whoever marries our mother is our uncle” that is an old Somali saying ?, Why should not we decide our future through pallet box as the western hypocrite make us to believe that they are in favour of plain field, equal opportunity, on the other hand we believe that its not the best interest of the western countries that the surprise leader to emerge on which they don’t have any profile of him, also Isn’t it hypocrisy as it best to advocate and champion for democracy, transparency and good governance while tolerating a dictator like IOG and Males Zenawe, not telling that the arrogant Mr Kahin to do right thing and abide by the constitution? If their interest is not to tell anything to Mr. Kahin, it mean their special interest out weight their moral obligation as they preach in public, unfortunately the same thing goes with IOG of Djibouti and Males Zenawe of Ethiopia.