TFG should just throw in the towel

[James Dahl]

When Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was elected president I had high hopes that he would be able to bring his former colleagues in al-Shabab and Xisbul Islaam to the negotiating table, that it was just a matter of time until they resolved their differences. I was anticipating that the TFG would be dissolved, that a new government of national unity would be formed, and peace would finally be achieved.

It appears I was foolish to believe such a thing, and I see that Sharif Sheikh Ahmed is largely "in a gilded cage", as they said of princes of a bygone era who despite being the head of their countries were powerless to effect any changes. This week he put his cards on the table, and essentially tried to make the changes in his government that would allow him to reach out to those groups willing to compromise with his government for the sake of the nation, and he was slapped down.

The much-hyped government offensive to retake Mogadishu appears to have as much teeth as the equally-hyped offensive that Puntland was supposed to have undertaken 3 years ago to recapture Las Canood "any day now". It is an empty promise.

I have always been a believer in Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, I believe he is a man who wants the best for his country, but his commitment to compromise and working within the system is simply not going to work in the environment Somalia finds itself in. The people he really needs to compromise with are unwilling to compromise, and the system which he works within is fundamentally broken and in fact, at odds with itself.

I think the best thing he can do at this point for his country is a conditional surrender, surrender to al-Shabab provided they make peace with Xizbul Islaam and agree to form an inclusive government.

[Siciid85]

"The much-hyped government offensive to retake Mogadishu appears to have as much teeth as the equally-hyped offensive that Puntland was supposed to have undertaken 3 years ago to recapture Las Canood "any day now". It is an empty promise." James Dahl speaking the truth rageedi baad noqotay.



James i really believe the so called TFG era is just a neverending cycle of corruption,warlords,islamists, no matter how many TFG's are reconstructed in djibouti nothing seems to be changing to the right direction whatever the TFG wants the opposition will want the opposite that is the sad nature of somalia no matter how much political influence from the outside world you will forever find a group of people who will suddenly oppose the TFG and bring it down by any means or fight them to the end, and the islamists don't seem to have a future in somalia, their whole aim and goal is to create fear in the people in order to rule them and we both know that never worked in the past from sayyid to siad bare, force will never work.

[James Dahl]

There will always be opposition, that is the nature of politics, one man's sensible reform is another man's intolerable crime.

That said, Somalia cannot rebuild it's shattered society until such disagreements are resolved with discussion and compromise and not bullets and explosives, and such a political environment cannot exist without peace and government.

[AbdiWahab252]

James,

What would be the alternative to the TFG ?

[oldenglish]

There was a time when the TFG had a chance, 2005, if AY had forcefully faught against extremist and Sharif it without feeling bad for Hawiyes we would of won the war. But he resigned and the TFG is irrelevant.


ps: if it werent for AY the TFG would not be a legit body.

[James Dahl]

James,

What would be the alternative to the TFG ?

Some sort of compromise solution between ASWJ, XI, and al-Shabab.
Respect and tolerance of Sufi beliefs and practices, an inclusive new government, etc.

Those two lines sound simple but in reality it's a long shot. I think the reality of the situation is that al-Shabab is going to conquer all of Somalia.

[AbdiWahab252]

James,

Foreign interference (be it Western or Arab or Al Qacida) makes things in Somalia worse. It exacerbates the conflict and leads to increased fragmentation of the warring parties. Somalia was closest to achieving peace in Summer of 1992 before the UN intervention. There were decisive victors and losers and all parties were closer to reaching an accommodation but the hopes of a UN intervention breathed life into the losing groups who hoped for a better deal post intervention.

[James Dahl]

James,

Foreign interference (be it Western or Arab or Al Qacida) makes things in Somalia worse. It exacerbates the conflict and leads to increased fragmentation of the warring parties. Somalia was closest to achieving peace in Summer of 1992 before the UN intervention. There were decisive victors and losers and all parties were closer to reaching an accommodation but the hopes of a UN intervention breathed life into the losing groups who hoped for a better deal post intervention.

Absolutely, and the foreign meddling in Somalia continues to this day.
The worst thing about the civil war is that the foreign backers only support factions in the war so long as they are willing to fight their proxy enemies. Once they signal any moves to compromise or come to an equitable agreement, their backers turn off the flow of cash and arms.
The west has lost this one though, Ethiopia was forced to withdraw, they couldn't get the AU to send in enough forces to retake the country for the TFG, and there is no political will for a direct military engagement. Western-backed forces in Somalia need to realize that the west played all their cards and it's over.

It's been over for a while now, 2008 was the end. The election of Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was the last hail-mary pass, but that solution, which WOULD HAVE WORKED, had it been done in Nov. 2006, was 2 years past it's expiry date. That was the last card they had in their deck, which was basically hand over power to the moderate UIC and hope they can get the hard-line UIC onboard with the government.

[grandpakhalif]

James, are you impressed by the relative security provided by Al Shabaab? Do you think Al Shabaab should be given a chance to capture Mogadishu and bring peace to the South and that the TFG/AMISOM should depart?

In your next map please edit your next map a new legitimate state of Somalia called "Galgaduudland" will soon appear as Western Galgaduud Marehan has formally defected from ASWJ and has fragmented. Thank you for in advance.

[AhlulbaytSoldier]

Sh Sharif xafidullah is a man with good intentions. I cannot blame him for his weakness.
It was a mistake to expect dugsi teacher bringing law and order in an anarchic country.

Though i believe he would be good president in a extremely peaceful united somalia.

[AhlulbaytSoldier]

James, are you impressed by the relative security provided by Al Shabaab? Do you think Al Shabaab should be given a chance to capture Mogadishu and bring peace to the South and that the TFG/AMISOM should depart?

In your next map please edit your next map a new legitimate state of Somalia called "Galgaduudland" will soon appear as Western Galgaduud Marehan has formally defected from ASWJ and has fragmented. Thank you for in advance.

Degmada Guri-ceel ee Goballka Galgaduud oo kulan ku dhaxmarya Saraakiil ka tirsan Ahlu Sunna Waljameeca iyo Odayaal ka kala yimid degmooyinka Goballka Galgaduud iyo Hiiraan.

Jimco, 21, May, 2010 (HOL) Degmada Guri-ceel ee Goballka Galgaduud ayaa kulan Albaabada leysku xirtay waxaa uu ku dhaxmaray Saraakiil ka tirsan Xoogagga Ahllu Sunna Waljameeca iyo Odayaal ka kala tagay degmooyinka Goballada Hiiraan iyo Galgaduud ee Bartamaha dalka Soomaaliya.

Kulanka oo aan loo ogolaan in ay Saxaafadu ka qeyb-gasho ayaa sida warar soo baxaya sheegayaan waxaa looga wada hadllay arrimo u badnaa Xaaladaha Siyaasadeed ee uu dalku marayo iyo waliba wax yaabihii ka hergalay kulankii kol hore ku dhaxmaray Magaalada Addis Ababa ee dalka Itoobiya Ahlu Sunna Waljameeca iyo Dowladda Soomaaliya, gaar ahaan qodobkii ku saleysnaa awood qeybsiga Dowladda.

Gaar ahaa waxgaradkii kulanka ka qeyb-galay waxaa ay sheegeen in ka dhageysteen Saraakiisha Ahlu Sunna Warbixin la xiriirta kulamdii ugu danbeeyay ee Magaalada Muqdisho ku dhaxmaray Wafdi ka socday Ahlu Sunna Waljameeca iyo Mas'uuliyiinta sar sare ee Dowladda Soomaaliya wax yaabihii looga wada hadllay, waxaana y intaa ku dareen in ugu danbeytii isla meel dhigeen dhamaan qodobadii laga wada hadllay.

Odayaasha iyo Waxgaradka ka qeyb-galay kulanka oo ka kala tagay degmooyinka Caabud-waaq, Dhuusa-mareeb, iyo degmada Matabaan oo ka tirsan Goballka Hiiraan ayaa si dhab ah u wada faah faahin asalka wada hadallada, laakiin waxaa la og yahay tan iyo wixii ka danbeeyay hadalkii ka soo yeeray Guddoomiyaha Ahlu Sunna Waljameeca Macalin Max'uud Shiikh Xassan ee ahaan in uu bur buray hishiiskii Addis Ababa ee u dhaxeeyay iyaga iyo Dowladda Soomaaliya Saraakiisha Ahlu Sunna wadeen kulamo wada tashi ah oo ay la leeyihiin Odayaasha iyo Waxgaradka ku dhaqan deegaannada ay Maamulaan si meesha looga saaro mad madowgga soo kala dhxgalay Mas'uuliyiinta sar sare ee Ahlu Sunna Waljameeca ee ku aadan hishiiskii Addis Ababa.

[James Dahl]

James, are you impressed by the relative security provided by Al Shabaab? Do you think Al Shabaab should be given a chance to capture Mogadishu and bring peace to the South and that the TFG/AMISOM should depart?

In your next map please edit your next map a new legitimate state of Somalia called "Galgaduudland" will soon appear as Western Galgaduud Marehan has formally defected from ASWJ and has fragmented. Thank you for in advance.

It's already sort of there it just doesn't have a label.

Couldn't they get a better name than Galgaduudland?

What about Galgaduud Galbeed?

[Somalian_Boqor]

James Dahl your not fooling anyone.

walle Hawiye dudes can play the white character so perfectly

[Serena]

the tfg needs to stop listening to foreigners like you.