How to checkmate Ethiopian Influence and Recreate Somalia

[AbdiWahab252]

Gurey25,

Abti, I am fond of seeing an independent Somaliland but under the right conditions and as long as the rights of the Northern HG are respected. The status quo doesn't benefit neither the north or the south.

A nice, orderly dissolution is the way forward And yes, you will take your portion of the $3billion dollar debt of the Somali Democratic Republic.

[Eaglehawk]

you can only checkmate ethiopia with a independent ogadeniya as a buffer zone between somalia and ethiopia

I believe Prof melez will make my dream come thru in the coming few months...tigray aspiration for a independent republic is what will give somalis their final due, peace and strategic security.

I have more hope in ethiopian self destruction then a somali self emancipation
the ethiopian rebel train is never late its a matter of time before the next ethiopian rebel group is at the gates of addis ababa and dr melez knows it...hence dr melez quest to secure his pension plan post PM(founding father of tigray republic)

[Yareey]

It is obvious that Ethiopia is the main impedement to resolution of the Somalia problem.
Every major somali political grouping other than al-shabab are under its influence and are in reality ethiopian sattelites
just like the warsaw pact countries like poland, east germany were sattelites of the Soviet Union.

This goes for Somaliland, Puntland, ahlu al suna wa al jamaca and the TFG.

In Somalilands case, they have been patiently waiting for recognition since 91, and expected that this
will help it counter ethiopia and have a more equal relationship when its territroy is internationally protected like Djibouti,
while leaving the rest of somalia to thier own devices.

Puntland mission from inception has been to gaurentee the security and political power of the majerteen
since the carta government did not include them they were hostile to it.
When cabdullahi yusuf took over the last TFG,
he attempted to use puntland to gain power over the rest of somalia.
The problem was that he had the opposition of a real peoples movement the islamic courts that were forming,
and also the warlords that were reported to command some 60,000 mooryan.


The situation today is different,
most of the clans in south are exhausted by 19 years of war, and the only force interested in fighting today are alshabab and thier splinter groups.

Ahlu sunna wa jamaca are a defensive movement in response to the latter group...



The solution is deceptively simple.

Use Somaliland and to a lesser extent Puntland to help bring about a new and genuine TFG.
This should be formed on Somali land.
A TFG army should be trained and armed on Somali soil and this should then march south and secure the capital.


The al shabab and thier splinter groups have descredited themselves and do not have the support of the population,
they are holding hostage the people with less than 6,000 fighters amongs them.


What is needed is a source of funding and training from a reliable source.
The arabs should provide funding, and the Americans or EU maybe Egypt and Pakistan can be a source of officers for training.
The west has to be brought on board to prevent the Ethiopians from interfering.



from the political front, we need to avoid the failures of the previous TFG's.
There are 500 or more members of parlaiment that have no constituency, and are mostly washed up former warlords
and other useless sorts.

We need to invite clan elders and prominent men from all clans ,especially fromthe south.
This might mean that there could be nearly 1000 delegates from all clans meeting on somali soil,
Somaliland or Puntland.
They can elect a new TFG that will have the mandate to rule for 4 years till elections are held and constitution formulated.



Now what will prevent this TFG from having the same result as the previous 16 ot 17 attempts?
This new TFG needs to have a powerfull and commited millitary force behind it from the begining.


Somaliland and Puntland would be a good source.
In somalilands case there are 20,000 soliers on the books recieving a salary.
This is taking up more than half the budget of Somaliland and little is left over to maintain equipment of buy new ones,
there is little left over for training as well...


What will Somaliland get out of this deal?

for starters , recognition.

This is exactly how Eritrea got its independance recognized.
Eritrea and its allies defeated the dergue, then the EPLF helped the TPLF and EPRDF and OLF by marching into Addis Ababa with them and installing a new government.
This new government then recognized eritreas independance.

another products of this deal would be the retraining and requipment of our armed forces and saving million of dollars from the budget in the form of salaries, becuase the rest of the world will pick up the tab.


what do you think....

It's sounds like you finally understanding that Somaliland will not get recognized by the West.

Hada maxa isdhadeen somalida sabsabta ine Somaliland ixtrafaan, Who are you trying to fool?

[Somaliweyn]

Gurey,

Its good to hear from you again. Hope everything is going fine.


Your scenario is worse than Alshabab taking over all of Somalia and establishing an Islamic state.

Aside from my ideological opposition to Alshabab, I must say that they are the closest to re-uniting the whole of Somalia. I would rather support them in bringing the whole of Somalia under their control than supporting the scenario you have described.

[Somaliweyn]

Although its good idea, you getta understand that up northerners (Puntland and Somaliland) never think collective, they think local, they are fighting for their tribe interest. That is why they will never form a Somali government together.

Somali government has always been formed or sought in the South, even greater Somalia is always fought for in the South. Whether its Al-shabaab or TFG, the Southerners are more national and global, when they fight, they fight over building Somali government, or greater Somalia. When Somalia is invaded, its invaded in the South, such as Ethiopia, US, Kneya etc, and they defend against them. Although numorous tribes live in the South, they don't have their own clan Admin lands, such as Jubbaland, Banadirland, Shabelleland, Gedoland etc. Whereas the Northerners are fighting for the opposite end, tribally charged, and promoting their clan's secession from Somalia, instead of building Somali government, they want to build their own administration and just keep it to themselves.
You think if the South was peaceful, and the north was fighting, you think they will wait for the North to build a Somali government, they would build a Somali government and attacked the North and capture it.

so true

[Murax]

You think if the South was peaceful, and the north was fighting, you think they will wait for the North to build a Somali government, they would build a Somali government and attacked the North and capture it.

so true [/quote]

Wow, the nail is hit right on the head. Even today with the South devastated by 20 years of War, the entire North is still viewed as a vessel of the South and whatever movement in the South captures steam, that law will get implemented in the North. Case in point example is How the ICU after capturing the entire South, was on the gates of Galkacyo before the Ethiopians forcibly intervened. Xassan Turki went on the airwaves and said We will be in Hargeisa in a couple of weeks, and it wasn't just talk. Tomorrow if a somewhat legit Gov is installed in the South the North will have to pay tribute immediately.

[paidmonk]

^ All of those posts got it. The northerners see an equal relationship, but they are a vassal region in the eyes of the south. They have the upper hand over most of the southern clans, they should realize that so long as they are stuck with the Somali republic, they will be seen as a potential target for political expansion by southern groups, and they should use their power to maneuver into a comfortable position in the south or even take an upper hand, this opportunity may never come again.

[lali99]

^^southerners are living in the same dream as in 1990..do you forget that southern armies were kick out by the barrel of the gun from SL? now what powers do you have that you didnt have during the kacaan government? The truth is that any XAmar government doesnt have any cloud over hargeysa governement which is shown how no southern politician cant land in SL without risking going to mandheera prison


You guys are living in fantasy and are forgetting that hisroty repeat itself. Be honset with yourself and realize that we were the one who gave them power in the south out of somaliniimo in 1960 and we're the one who took it back in 1990. Point blank

[IRONm@N]

^^southerners are living in the same dream as in 1990..do you forget that southern armies were kick out by the barrel of the gun from SL? now what powers do you have that you didnt have during the kacaan government? The truth is that any XAmar government doesnt have any cloud over hargeysa governement which is shown how no southern politician cant land in SL without risking going to mandheera prison


You guys are living in fantasy and are forgetting that hisroty repeat itself. Be honset with yourself and realize that we were the one who gave them power in the south out of somaliniimo in 1960 and we're the one who took it back in 1990. Point blank

You sounding like God, "we are the ones that give Somalia power and we are the ones that take it ???"

[gurey25]

It is clear now,

people are living in denial and in a fantasy world.


If the Somali national army could nt contain the north, how on earth would an undisciplined grouping of millitias from the south
do any better??

[gurey25]

Gurey,

Its good to hear from you again. Hope everything is going fine.


Your scenario is worse than Alshabab taking over all of Somalia and establishing an Islamic state.

Aside from my ideological opposition to Alshabab, I must say that they are the closest to re-uniting the whole of Somalia. I would rather support them in bringing the whole of Somalia under their control than supporting the scenario you have described.

good to hear from you too bro,

I want to ask you a question, if you are ideologically opposed to alshabab why would you support them?
do you seriously think that they can unite the country?

The Islamic courts could have, its possible, ut surely not alshabab.
This is not a millitary issue, both of them face the same problems.
In the Islamic courts case , they were like a fast spreading virus and were very seductive to several clans in the north.

Isaaq are one of the most individualistic and anarchistic clans in somalia,
but since they have thrown thier support towards a state, namely Somaliland, most people would not see this..
the idea of Islam and a loose confederation of islamic courts would have spread like wildfire...


Now alshabab are in reality an alien entity with no hope of winning over anyone but a tiny fringe element in Somaliland
this is why they have no hope of capturing the north.....

becuase there definatley is no millitary option at all.


Ok hypothetically lets imagine how alshabab can conquer the north.
below is what would be needed.

1.conscripting all men of fighting age between 15-50 from the territory held by them
Thye will need at least 100,000 men.

2.Need to find enough guns and ammo to arm them.

3. enough trucks , technicals to move them around the battlefield.

4. airlift capability to keep them supplied.

5.and air force to bomb thier enemies and get survielance, or if not highly accurate long range artillary, a large quantity of them
and ofcourse the men trained to use them.


since this is an ASB (alien Space Bats) senario
you can see why we are do not pay that much attention to the south.

[lali99]

^^southerners are living in the same dream as in 1990..do you forget that southern armies were kick out by the barrel of the gun from SL? now what powers do you have that you didnt have during the kacaan government? The truth is that any XAmar government doesnt have any cloud over hargeysa governement which is shown how no southern politician cant land in SL without risking going to mandheera prison


You guys are living in fantasy and are forgetting that hisroty repeat itself. Be honset with yourself and realize that we were the one who gave them power in the south out of somaliniimo in 1960 and we're the one who took it back in 1990. Point blank

You sounding like God, "we are the ones that give Somalia power and we are the ones that take it ???"

istaqfurululah that wasnt my objective niinyaho..to clarify this for you what i mean was that isaaq relinquish some POLITICAL power on their own for this somaliniimo concept to work in 1960.

All power relies with ALLAH while humans have the will to choose certain choices that affect their lives.