Peace power sharing proposal

[James Dahl]

What do you guys think of this:

People with actual power send representatives to create a small national government. No ministries, no president, no bullcrap, just an honest sit down roundtable, and work out a peace plan.

The Shir would be structured like so:

TFG: Appoints 1 delegate to represent their portion of Mogadishu
SSC: Appoints 2 representatives (1 Warsangeli, 1 Dulbahante)
Puntland: Appoints 3 representatives, (1 Tanade and 2 Majerteen)
Galmudug: Appoints 1 representative
Ximan & Xeeb: Appoints 1 representative
Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jamaca (Hawiye): Appoints 3 representatives (from Galgaduud, Hiiraan & Mogadishu)
Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jamaca (Sade): Appoints 1 representative
Xisbul Islaam: Appoints 2 representatives (1 from Mogadishu, 1 from other XI areas)
al-Shabaab: Appoints 12 representatives (1 from Mogadishu, 3 from the Jubbas, 3 from Bay and Bakool, 3 from the Shabelle's, 1 from Galgaduud, 1 from Hiiraan)

Total: 26 delegates

[James Dahl]

Those 26 delegates then come up with a constitution they all agree with and vote for one of their number to be the new president (or Amir, or whatever title they agree to in the new constitution).

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

1 problem - You can't have half the country (north of Galguduud) operating via clan representation, and the other half (south of Galguduud) operating under a non-clan representation. If this system continued for a few years under stability, the southern regions under Al-Shabaab would be astonishingly rich and with strong institutions unlike the divided and resource-deprived northern half, and it would simply move in for annexation like what Morocco did to Western Sahara in the 70s.

And adding, I don't think Al-Shabaab would just stop and sit for peace, they want the whole pie since its so easily accessible and because Somalia lacks strong institutions to block their advance. It would be like '96, the Taliban despite numerous setbacks from Massoud knew that it wasn't worth stopping considering how far they'd come and traveled. Similarly, I don't think Al-Shabaab is nearly ready to throw in the towel - they ate away at Ethiopia until it left, I don't think in a million years they will just stop and negotiate with much weaker and divided Somali elements.

[gurey25]

Monk is right Alshabaab has no respect for anyone other than Amisom..
and they are right in a way..

Remove Amisom, and if you magically remove Ethiopia for example let Ethiopia/eritrea war round 2 start..
Then alshabaab will simply wipe away all opposition..

you do not negotiate with weaker opponents you bully them,,

this is what isreal does to the palestinains..

[gurey25]

1 problem - You can't have half the country (north of Galguduud) operating via clan representation, and the other half (south of Galguduud) operating under a non-clan representation. If this system continued for a few years under stability, the southern regions under Al-Shabaab would be astonishingly rich and with strong institutions unlike the divided and resource-deprived northern half, and it would simply move in for annexation like what Morocco did to Western Sahara in the 70s.

And adding, I don't think Al-Shabaab would just stop and sit for peace, they want the whole pie since its so easily accessible and because Somalia lacks strong institutions to block their advance. It would be like '96, the Taliban despite numerous setbacks from Massoud knew that it wasn't worth stopping considering how far they'd come and traveled. Similarly, I don't think Al-Shabaab is nearly ready to throw in the towel - they ate away at Ethiopia until it left, I don't think in a million years they will just stop and negotiate with much weaker and divided Somali elements.

I dont understand your assumption of the superiority of the non-clan representation system.
are you saying that somalis in the south will miraculously leave clannism, via alshabaabism?
and how does this lead to prosperity?

strong institutions can be clan based, they just need time to mature.

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

I dont understand your assumption of the superiority of the non-clan representation system.
are you saying that somalis in the south will miraculously leave clannism, via alshabaabism?
and how does this lead to prosperity?

strong institutions can be clan based, they just need time to mature.

The clan-based representation and clan-based mini societies in Somalia are a failure, simply due to the fact that clans break down infinitely in our society and there will always be some nepotism; no one wants to serve a sub-clan that is not theirs.

People won't leave clannism voluntarily in Shabaab regions, they will just be kept busy so as to not touch it; Al-Shabaab is excellent at this. They create all sorts of public programs and initiatives to give all segments of society something to do other than shooting at each other. Clans during a power vacuum fight over land, but now that Al-Shabaab has re-issued properties to their owners and no one is free to dispute such things; and with food booms, new irrigation canals and systems there's enough resources to end the bickering. Prosperity has already been reached in most of the south since Al-Shabaab filled the power vacuum. Call this Al-Shabaab fanboyism but their track record in these fields has proven their ability to alleviate the problems of conflict in the Somali clan system, if someone can somehow prove their incompetence then this point no longer stands.

So, it is basically established fact that in this pseudo-coalition that the southern Al-Shabaab regions make up will stay in-tact and continue to enjoy record economic gains. This leaves the mostly barren and divided regions north of Beledweyn to be factored in---their only valuable and exploitable resource is uranium, and they'll have to come together to allow mining operations. In the meantime, their backwards geeljire mentality will prevent them from creating viable food and sustenance solutions other than livestock. By the time the first mine opens the southern regions will have enjoyed at least a decade of surplus economic output and will have long ago annexed those areas.

Money makes the world go 'round and Al-Shabaab have Somalia's entire breadbasket and they have already setup all the proper infrastructure to begin growing and moving large agricultural yields, they will rule the entire country in the next 5 years. It will be Morocco vs. Western Sahara 2.0, no amount of gusto and arms can keep the rest of Somalia from falling into Al-Shabaab's lap.

[gurey25]

Interesting theory but you fail to factor in trade.
Alshabab will need to divert some of the surpluses into cash crops so that they can gain hard currency.
There is no industry to speak of so everything is imported.

The northern regions have an advantage in trade, and you should remember that when siad barre fuked up the economy in the 70's.
The market for sugar and bananas and sisal was severly degraded and somalia depended on Northern Livestock trade for its hard currency via the franco-valuta
system...
siads attempt to get greater control is one of the main cause of the formation of the SNM..

Your theory is sound but it applies to the pre-colonial period, in such a senario greater food security and population resource leads to greater manpower for
the millitary and since you only need to arm them with spears and swords and some horses , you are good to go.....


I believe the harsh terrian, access to ports and to diaspora that supply the weapons and ammunition the clanninst nomads will have the advantage in their region, provided they can be kept united....

an aggressive alshaab state that is out to get them is the perfect excuse for unity..

[gurey25]

Those 26 delegates then come up with a constitution they all agree with and vote for one of their number to be the new president (or Amir, or whatever title they agree to in the new constitution).

These delegates should also appoint from thier members a 7 member politburo or executive council with a revolving presidency.
The 7 will function in the role of the presidency.

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

Interesting theory but you fail to factor in trade.
Alshabab will need to divert some of the surpluses into cash crops so that they can gain hard currency.
There is no industry to speak of so everything is imported.

What does any of this mean? Al-Shabaab doesn't have industry? I don't get this. But if you're talking about trade, its going good for them. The port at Kismayo is similar to Berbera in scale and ability and its in full use today. They've just completed a second dock for Marka alongside a new food processing factory. They are exporting...as we speak. They're implementing systems in a few weeks that would take your beloved Somaliland years to address and a decade to complete, even you can't deny this. Whatever point you were trying to make, the fact of the matter is that Al-Shabaab's regions are producing food, even enough surplus so that they've been able to use them as local food aid and enough to warrant facilities for storage and processing&export. Their revenue streams are secured and guaranteed.

The northern regions have an advantage in trade, and you should remember that when siad barre fuked up the economy in the 70's.
The market for sugar and bananas and sisal was severly degraded and somalia depended on Northern Livestock trade for its hard currency via the franco-valuta
system...
siads attempt to get greater control is one of the main cause of the formation of the SNM..

Al-Shabaab is libertarian at the moment in terms of economic liberties, the Taliban had the same hands-off policy when it came to private businesses, I think the trend will continue. These guys are smart, they won't touch their income base.

The north's disadvantage is that there are no readily-exploitable resources aside from livestock. The only other possible resources are uranium and oil, and it will take at least another generation to create revenue-sharing agreements. Escalating violence near the Puntland-Somaliland border put a complete halt to oil exploration activities and it won't likely resume in full for another 5-10 years. This kind of interference in resource exploration will be a norm for at least 20 years for the northern regions.

Your theory is sound but it applies to the pre-colonial period, in such a senario greater food security and population resource leads to greater manpower for
the millitary and since you only need to arm them with spears and swords and some horses , you are good to go.....

You really don't understand the power of agriculture, its shocking. Food....IS still power. Agriculture is life, and it is the future and in the next generation agricultural practices alone will define the rich nations from the poor. You must really be avoiding financial news lately; agriculture is making a return and it will be the main currency 20 years from now. Somalia is still undeveloped, and the first of these groups in the country to fully implement proper food growing techniques will win. You need to remember that the main reason nomadic clans fight is over grazing lands; these dipshits can just grow their own grass with basic irrigation tubes - they can literally create grasslands anywhere instead of traveling 100km to kill someone for it. Water is still a major issue in Somalia and you're talking about agriculture not having meaning, wow! If there was an acre of cornfield in Mudug you'd see armed nomads coming all the way from the Hawd to get a piece of it. Unless they solve their water/resource problem, the northern groups and Somali nomads in general will continue to fight. But since the south has implemented food growing systems they can focus on other things. You need to see the big picture, but for the moment just take my advice and learn how to grow your own food if you don't already have this skill.

I believe the harsh terrian, access to ports and to diaspora that supply the weapons and ammunition the clanninst nomads will have the advantage in their region, provided they can be kept united....

Harsh terrain won't do them any good when 90% of their population is opting to join the rich south - the central, eastern & northern regions will become Somalia's North Korea. Harsh terrain won't save technicals from sukhoi jets acquired with southern money either.

In short, I truly think you fail to grasp the scale of economy and institutions that is possible in the regions under Al-Shabaab's control, and the entire world including us skinnies, fails to understand the organizational ability and institutional competence of Al-Shabaab. In all of Somalia today, including Somaliland, Al-Shabaab's militia are the only salaried men in uniform - neither the TFG, Puntland, or Somaliland has succeeded in paying all elements of their security. This alone makes their chances of success against Al-Shabaab a total joke.

[gurey25]

I was refering to Puntland when i mentioned northern regions.
If you mean in a 20 year time frame assumimng the status quo remains the same then you are right alshabaab if they are abble to fully consolidate thier rule
will have more resources this is obvious.

You fail to undertand the logsitical situation , without airpower alshabaab would find it difficult to move men and supplies all the way past Galkacayo.

Even if they hop from place to place they will not be able to concentrate superior manpower as fast as puntland can..

for example let imagine that ahulsunna wal jamaca is defeated, alhabaab moves towards ximana and xeeb and then towards hobyo and Galcayo.

In this case Puntland would be able to move more men to the area than alshabaab.
It will take alshabaab weeks to move enough men and material to have a 2 to 1 advantage in manpower if they are unmolested, longer if they are..
While puntland could arm all thier clans men and move them south with 3 ot 4 days tops..

This is assuming the general status of both forces remain the same as today.
i.e both bieng crap, both having minimal heavy equipment and alshabaab having the edge in discipline.

The only senario that gives alshabaab victory is if Puntland drops the ball and is more incompetant than normal.
If the alshabaab manage to defeat puntland while having less men..., or Puntland is so indecisive and allows alshabaab to keep massing men and equipment in Mudug for weeks without attacking them.

This would throw everything into the air and anything is possible in this example.

Al-Shabaab's militia are the only salaried men in uniform - neither the TFG, Puntland, or Somaliland has succeeded in paying all elements of their security. This alone makes their chances of success against Al-Shabaab a total joke

I dont know about puntlands case. but somalilands budget has been publsihed for years now,
the army is paid.

[gurey25]

I agree agriculture is negelected...

The north of the country is very dry and the general impression is that there is no agricultural land...
Upto 10% of somaliland can be used for agriculture if you invest nearly a billion dollars in irrigation systems..
currently less than 2% is cultivated, according to FAO using tradtional methods and local manpower the agricultural land can be trippled.
5% of the arable land is enough to make somaliland self sufficient...


Now the south is different, with mmodern techniques and irrigation southern somalia can not only feed somalia but also all 80 millon ethiopians..


even without modern equipement and techniques, it can provide more than enough food for itself and export a large amount..

[Somalian_Boqor]

What do you guys think of this:

People with actual power send representatives to create a small national government. No ministries, no president, no bullcrap, just an honest sit down roundtable, and work out a peace plan.

The Shir would be structured like so:

TFG: Appoints 1 delegate to represent their portion of Mogadishu
SSC: Appoints 2 representatives (1 Warsangeli, 1 Dulbahante)
Puntland: Appoints 13 representatives, (3 Tanade and 10 Majerteen)
Galmudug: Appoints 1 representative
Ximan & Xeeb: Appoints 1 representative
Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jamaca (Hawiye): Appoints 3 representatives (from Galgaduud, Hiiraan & Mogadishu)
Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jamaca (Sade): Appoints 1 representative
Xisbul Islaam: Appoints 2 representatives (1 from Mogadishu, 1 from other XI areas)
al-Shabaab: Appoints 12 representatives (1 from Mogadishu, 3 from the Jubbas, 3 from Bay and Bakool, 3 from the Shabelle's, 1 from Galgaduud, 1 from Hiiraan)

Total: 36 delegates