Wikileaks and papers to censure Ethiopian cables

[Oxidant]

http://www.abugidainfo.com/?p=16658

by Eskinder Nega
Abugidainfo.com http://www.abugidainfo.com/?p=16658

“(Soon) Everywhere there is a US post (embassy or consulate), there is a diplomatic scandal that will be revealed,” wrote Bradely Manning,22, from a US army base outside of Baghdad , to his online friend,Adrian Lamo. “ Hillary Clinton and several thousands diplomats around the world are going to have a heart attack.”( Lamo, a hacker, was horrified and informed the authorities.)

With access to the Defense Department’s Siprnet network “14 hours a day, 7 days a week, for 8+ months”, over which State Department’s cables ranging up to “SECRET NONFORN” level (which means non-US citizens should not see them) are exchanged, Manning was perfectly positioned to deliver on his promise. ( “Information should be free. It belongs in the public domain,” he reasoned.)

In the end, he was to retrieve 251,287 dispatches from more than 250 US embassies and consulates, all compressed in just 1.6 gigabytes of text files. And 1398 of them are exchanges between the State Department and the US embassy in Addis Ababa. These interactions have,in the words of my well connected source (an American) “…word is US State Dept has been reviewing cables from Ethiopia on wikileaks and fears some of its sources may be placed in real jeopardy—think the newspapers and wikileaks have been trying to censor some of the stuff to avoid such an outcome.”

America’s most sensitive documents, however, including those that relate to Ethiopia, classified as “TOP SECRET” and above, are not part of the leaked documents. Manning did not hack the network over which they are exchanged.

The New York Times, one of four newspapers to which wikileaks has (unofficially) provided the entire documents, has obviously shared the Ethiopian cables with the Obama administration; which is recommending multitude of omissions to forestall possible compromises of its sources. The Times, as a matter of routine, shares the State Department’s concerns with the other papers.( Der Spiegel, Germany; Guardian ,UK; Le Monde ,France; and El Pais Spain.) Each paper decides independently whether to accept the State Department’s proposed excision in its entirety or just parts of it. But as Dean Baquet, the Times Washington bureau chief, says, “(those) requests are taken very seriously.” The NYT has agreed to some, but not all of the omissions suggested by the State Department so far, according to its editors. No major documents related to Africa have been released to date.

The leaked cables, which cover the period between 2005 and 2010, were sent, from, or to, the US embassy in Addis. Those sent from Addis were intended to be read by officials up to the level of Secretary of State; and should be, as is the case with the cables from other embassies to Washington, mostly drafted by the Ambassador or subordinates. How they perceived, negotiated, dealt, and maybe pressured Meles Zenawi will all soon be, as Manning intended, part of the public domain; no doubt embarrassing both sides.

But the unsettling prospect for the Americans, who reportedly rate their alliance with the EPRDF in Somalia as critical, is the extent to which the leaks may damage what is, by most insiders account, and already precarious relationship. Quick to be slighted, Meles abhors criticism. “He is oblivious to the distinction between a critique and a challenge to integrity,” says one of those he expelled (illegally) from the EPRDF leadership. And in a stroke of bad luck for the Americans, this leak has coincided with his peak petulance towards the West.( This is why Seyoum Mesfin, probably his best friend and most trusted confidant, is heading to Beijing instead of Washington as Ambassador.) Perhaps the only solace for the Americans is that the
most discomforting cables will most probably be from the Bush administration. Even then, some sort of fallout—or at least
unease— is almost inevitable.

An interesting read will be the cables of Vicki Huddleston and Donald Yamamato, who lean towards Democrats but had assumed high profile positions under a patently rightist Republican administration. And more intriguingly, light could also be shed on Yamamato’s subsequent demotion, where he still lingers. He now publicly decries the 2006 US backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia as a “mistake.” Pundits are eager to learn if and when he had expressed opposition to the invasion when the Bush administration was in office.

Ethiopian troops first crossed in to Somalia in September 2006. By November 2006, the UN was reporting of Ethiopia’s violations of 1992 arms-embargo on Somalia. US involvement, suspected by many, could be exposed by the leaks. Arms transfers are a Defense Department turf, however, and correspondences, if there were any, could very well have taken place over a different network.( The Defense Department has its own network.)US involvement in the violation of a UN arms-embargo, if confirmed by the leaks, could hardly come at a worst time. The US is chief sponsor and adamant would-be enforcer of all ten UN arms embargos—ranging from those against Hezbollah to Iran and North Korea— still in effect.

Of interest would also be —if it’s anywhere in the cables—the American estimate of Ethiopian causalities in Somalia. Meles insists that it was no more than 500, at least in 2006. Of course, no one, including his most avid supporters, believes him. Considered from the perspective of the ferocity of the war and fanaticism of Islamic militants, the figure has been disparaged as ridiculously low.

But as far as the international community is concerned, the potential for bombshell lies squarely in the story of, in the words of Human Rights Watch,” decentralized, outsourced Guantanamo”— the secret prisons in Ethiopia where suspects with strong links to al-Qaida were held by the Ethiopian government on behalf of the CIA and FBI.

According to a series of stories for McClatchy newspapers in 2007, two journalists reported that over 150 people had been deported from Kenya to Ethiopia and interrogated by CIA and FBI agents in three secret prisons. Incredibly, up to 200 agents of the CIA and FBI were reportedly involved. Though US government officials had at the time conceded to quizzing prisoners in Ethiopia, and rationalized it on national security grounds, the intricacies of the arrangement are still shrouded in secrecy. No one believes the EPRDF went overboard to assist the Americans for nothing. Almost anything related to this theme would generate a major international story.

For the Ethiopian public, however, the height of excitement will be measured in the cables that deal with the 2005 elections. Who did the Americans think won the elections? What did they think of the June and November massacres? Or the imprisonment of CUD’s leaders? And the closure of newspapers and imprisonment of their editors? Certainly, Washington must have sought guidance and update at some point. Maybe a little bit of intra-EPRDF politics? And hoping against hope, some fantasize about a cable that deals with high level corruption.(Very unlikely.)

Perhaps, in the end, there will not be much in the cables, after all. And all this excitement will all be for nothing. Well, possible, but unlikely. And while it lasts, the excitement is thrilling.

Interesting times ahead, I cannot wait to see what they expose regarding 2006 war, TPLF, 2005 election violence and Ethiopia and Somalia as whole

[Bamaarn]

BTW, Wikileaks has been shutdown.

[Oxidant]

BTW, Wikileaks has been shutdown.

Doesn’t matter, since they still able to release their cables somehow. It impossible to stop it now

[Oxidant]

Egypt on Ethiopia and the Horn

Egyptian officials have been pressuring the United States to delay a referendum on South Sudanese independence, a newly-leaked US Embassy cable has revealed.

In the October 2009 cable, obtained today by Al-Masry Al Youm and not yet released by WikiLeaks, Egypt draws the United States’ attention to the “fatal implications” should South Sudan choose to secede in a referendum next January.

“The result would be the creation of a non-viable state that could threaten Egypt's access to the Nile waters,” says an Egyptian foreign ministry official quoted in the cable.

The official suggested that the 2011 referendum be postponed for four to six years until the "capacity for statehood in South Sudan can be developed.”

The issue of South Sudanese secession has been a contentious one for Egyptian officials as Sudan remains a key Egyptian ally in on-going disputes with Nile Basin countries over water shares. A divided Sudan, Egypt fears, can compromise Egyptian water security interests and further tilt the balance of power in favor of upstream countries who want increased control over the Nile waters.

Ethiopia, which is at the helm of efforts to renogotiate water shares, has recently accused Egypt of supporting domestic Ethiopian insurgents to leverage control over the Nile dispute, a charge that Egypt has flatly denied. Ethiopia is the source of 85 percent of the Nile's river water, though Egypt receives a lion’s share of the water according to a 1929 agreement signed with the British government. Upstream states have criticized the agreement as a relic of colonialism.

Contrary to what Egyptian officials stated according to the cable, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit said in August 2010 that Sudan's referendum should be held in January 2011 as scheduled. His remarks came after a meeting with the Sudanese State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Kamal Hassan Ali.

According to the leaked cable, the Egyptian government also asked the US government to convince Sudanese leaders of the dangers of separation and to encourage them to advocate for unity.

More recent statements last month show some divergences between US and Egyptian visions for Sudan. State Department spokesperson Philip Crowley said in November that the United States had rejected a suggestion by Egypt for a "confederation" between North and South Sudan. Crowley asserted it was up to the people of South Sudan to determine their own fate.

On general Egyptian-African affairs, the cable goes on to say:

“The GoE [Government of Egypt] views the Horn of Africa as vital to its national security interests. Instability in the region might result in an increase in the flow of African refugees into Egypt, threaten Egypt's access to Nile waters, and affect Egyptian Suez Canal revenues and security in the Red Sea.”

The cable includes lengthy discussions about Egypt’s role in attempting to stabilize Somalia. It confirms Egypt’s support for Somali President Shaykh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, head of the Transnational Federal Government (TFG), but notes that Egypt remains “skeptical the TFG can militarily defeat Hizb al-Islam or al-Shibaab,” two Islamist insurgent groups operating in the southern part of the country, the latter one being affiliated with al-Qaeda.

The TFG remains the internationally recognized federal government of Somalia. It was ousted in a 2006 military coup led by the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which then imposed Shari’a law. Shortly afterwards, Ethiopian troops and African Union peacekeepers, backed by US air support, restored power to the TFG, causing the ICU to split into smaller groups, including al-Shibaab, which have conducted insurgency campaigns against the government since then.

In the cable, Egyptian officials underscore their own efforts to train Sharif’s presidential guards and their willingness to train the Somali police and armed forces. They also recommend working with the US to encourage Islamist leader and former Ahmed ally Shaykh Dahir Aweys--who later became affiliated with the Hizb al-Islam insurgency--to join the TFG and have his name removed from international terrorist lists.

For Egypt, instability in Somalia represents a threat to the Red Sea area, where maritime shipping though the Suez Canal constitutes an important source of state revenue.

In the cable, Egyptian officials are also expected to propose more cooperation with USAID in the Horn of Africa to promote Egypt’s regional interests.

“The GoE [Government of Egypt] will likely encourage the USG [United States Government] to take the "public" lead on some issues, reflecting Egypt's aversion to risk and fear of the consequences if these initiatives fail,” says a US Embassy official.

[Basra-]

Yes i heard Wikileak has been shut down. IT SHOULD BE SHUT DOWN. The founder assange is wanted for rape charges, he raped two women? Seriously? I thought he was GAY??


Doesnt he look gay? The way he walks and dresses, and the way he tucks his hair underneath his ear--seriously?



PS: Oh hi Oxi---how are ya? Have u come to terms with your childhood trauma?

[Bamaarn]

Yes i heard Wikileak has been shut down. IT SHOULD BE SHUT DOWN.

What about freedom of speech?

[Basra-]

Bam

That is NO freedom of speech. That is betraying your country. Opening up documents that expose our leaders to the world is NOT appropriate at all.

[Bamaarn]

Bam

That is NO freedom of speech. That is betraying your country. Opening up documents that expose our leaders to the world is NOT appropriate at all.

But Julian isn't American, so he didn't betray his country. I'm really baffled by why you defend those despicable world leaders and their secrets. If I knew you better, you love revealing secrets, gossips, etc. This isn't like you, the Basra we knew.

[Basra-]

loooooooooooool Bam

You have a new username? How well do u know me?


I am patriotic. United States is my country. This guy commited an espionage crime. Our leaders are representing us, the citizens. I just think this openess is more harmful and helpful. I am all for rationalizing, i dont blindly follow idealogy. I am unique as u have commented once.

[LobsterUnit]

oxidant, any leaks about your people(oromos
)?

[Oxidant]

oxidant, any leaks about your people(oromos
)?

What is there to leak?

30 million strong people controlled and abused by a mere 6 million people.

[Basra-]

Oxi

30 million vs 6 million?? Oxi will u say then--the more u r close to adoon genes , the dumber u r?How can a 30 million be abused by a mere lazy skinny but granted well alongated thin noses few?Does brain trump body strength?

[LobsterUnit]

oxidant, any leaks about your people(oromos
)?

What is there to leak?

30 million strong people controlled and abused by a mere 6 million people.

numbers mean nothing.i am worth 50 khat addicts and 500 crackheads.