What happened during 1990-1992

[hargaysaay]

1988 is the year that you should be looking at... and you should be blaming the Eritreans for the downfall of your beloved MOD empire.

History lesson for you..
In 1988 the battle of afabet took place one of the most decisive in modern history, up there with Dien Bien Phu.
The EPLF tricked the est division in the Ethiopian Army ( Nadew Division) into one huge ambush and completely wiped it out.
This started the end of the Derg Regime as the EPLF were victorious from then on and there were no soviets or cubans to help, thanks to MR Gorbachev.

Mengistu Panicked and went to siayad to offer him truce if he stops funding the EPLF/TPLF/OLF/ALF rebels and what remained of the WSLF, in exchange for the explusion of the SNM from Ethiopia.
Your uncle agreed, and what did this lead to?

1. The Ogaden one of the pillars of the MOD and making up a large part of the army were pissed off and formed the SPM, making a large part of the army untrustable to Siyad.

2.The SNM had no choice but to attack and bring the war fully into Somaliland and engage the Somali Army, instead of guerilla attacks from the border
Leading to mass murder of Isaaq and the start of a life and death match with no quarter asked or given.
From 1980 til 1988 there was allot of secret communication betweent he SNM and the Government with the Government offering enticements to stop the war.
After 1988 there was zero communication at all, all attempts at communication were rejected by the SNM, as of 1988 they did not consider the Somali
government to exist at all.


You are right you faced the USC i.e HG against Marexaan in 1990 why was this?

because of your startegic miscalculation and stuborness, the Somalia army was up north tied up in fighting the SNM and you had nobody to defend the capital
and the SPM was also biting at your heels.


What you should have done?

1. Withdraw from Hargiesa and Burco, and try to keep berbera and Shiekh as it would prevent the SNM from capturing a major port and would keep them contained.
Also berbera is easier to defend than Burco or Hargiesa .
You should have sent the Army back to the South to battle the USC and SPM.


If you did this you would have had another few years in power and all the chaos and destruction would not have happened.
The USC would have fragmented by 1995, or would have become mature and organized like the SNM and their might have been a change in power from Millitary to Civilian control by moderates like what the SNM experienced.

gurey is it true ethiopians have lost a total of 18000 soilders in the 3 day afabet war

[gurey25]

but do you agree that the Regime would still be in power today if Siad did not accept the peace proposal by Mengistu?

Im sad for Somalia and all the distruction but happy that we are free..
The Eritreans fought for 30 years, would we have been fighting for 30 years too?

[hargaysaay]

but do you agree that the Regime would still be in power today if Siad did not accept the peace proposal by Mengistu?

Im sad for Somalia and all the distruction but happy that we are free..
The Eritreans fought for 30 years, would we have been fighting for 30 years too?

i think wether they made that deal or not time for both regimes was up. it took eriterian 30 years couse their was a direct ussr military backing the derg regime dont forget their was power struggle among eplf and elf in the early 1970s and 1980s

[luis1]

Hi Gurey25,How are you?

May you help me with a doubt I have.

What happened to WSLF(Western Somalia Liberation Front) after 1978?

I heard it (WSLF) was very weak in 1988 and WSLF was not a serious threat for Mengistu in 1988.