The Kismaayo Conundrum(S)

[KingBlack]

insecurity was the thorniest problem that plagued Somalia’s previous governments, the new one will be dogged by multiple political challenges. Chief among those is the status of Kismaayo, Somalia’s third largest city.
At the center of the Kismaayo conundrum is a rancorous clash of two narratives. A Kenyan-backed armed group that recently captured the port city from al-Shabaab fighters wants to unilaterally decide the fate of the city and, ultimately, form a regional administration called ‘Jubbaland’ – this would theoretically come under the control of the Federal Government.

But the new Mogadishu-based government wants to shape the administration of Kismaayo as well as the future regional state. The current administration views itself as the legitimate authority in the country, but with 4,000 soldiers from neighboring Kenya still deployed in the region, the Somali government is understandably nervous about the possibility of a proxy regional state based in Kismaayo.

I was in Mogadishu last week and witnessed an impasse over these two narratives – each ‘side’ sticking to its guns at the expense of national unity and regional cooperation. Yet both must understand that their narratives are not mutually exclusive. Each has a legitimate point and an understandable fear.

The ‘Raskamboni’ militia has been fighting for years to dislodge al-Shabaab fighters from Kismaayo. They’ve paid a considerable human and financial toll in pursuit of ‘liberating’ the city. And they do, to an extent, represent the clan composition of Kismaayo and, more broadly, the ‘Jubbaland’ regions.

The Federal Government, on the other hand, has every right to play a role in the formation of an administration in the city and in the wider region. Kismaayo – and Jubbaland, for that matter – cannot live in isolation from the Federal Government.

The Middle Ground

Notwithstanding the acrimonious tone being adopted over the issue, there is some common ground: a power-sharing mechanism. The Raskamboni leadership should be allowed, with the consultation of the federal government, to form a temporary administration for the city, lasting no more than two years. A broadly representative local parliament should be selected and operationalised during this timeframe. This legislative body should ultimately elect a president and a vice president for the future Jubbaland state.

For its part, Raskamboni should merge its militia with the Somali National Army, to be commanded by a General appointed by federal officials. This would allow the federal government to control the security of the area, while ‘Raskamboni’ directs the political administration.

This is, however, only a temporary solution. Ultimately, direct elections must be held for both the executive and legislative branches of ‘Jubbaland’, and all armed groups must be disbanded and folded into a national military or police force.

Failure to seek common ground over the administration of Kismaayo would spell disaster for the hundreds of thousands of people who haven’t known peace for nearly 20 years. The Federal Government and ‘Raskamboni’ must recognize that Kismaayo is the graveyard of many Somali powers, starting with the former dictator Mohamed Siyad Barre, going through Gen. Mohamed Said Morgan, the Jubba Valley Alliance under Barre Hiiraale and ending with al-Shabaab.

Neighbours’ hands

Both Kenya and Ethiopia are understandably worried about the future of Kismaayo, but for entirely different reasons. Kenya wants a buffer zone to protect its nearby tourist sites and a friendly regional administration. Some of its key politicians – who are ethnic Somalis – have a vested interest in who dominates the region.

But Ethiopia fears that its own Somali ethnic rebel group – the Ogaden National Liberation Front – would be emboldened if their kinsmen become the dominant group in Jubbaland. The two countries, which claim that they are allies, are in effect rivals on the issue of Kismaayo.

This toxic mix of proxy war, clan rivalry and a chronic contestation over political control renders the city a policymakers’ nightmare. The sooner neighboring countries realize that it is in their best interest to work with the Somali government and local actors to find common ground, the closer we get to a stable and prosperous Somalia.

Neighboring countries should know that they’re not only notoriously unpopular in Somalia, but that warring Somali factions have taken them for a ride. The US, Ethiopia and Eritrea have all fallen into that familiar trap before. Kenya appears in danger of sinking into that particular abyss. It can, however, still recover.

In many ways, Kismaayo is a good indicator for the future trajectory of the rest of the country. Unlike the other ‘ghettoized’ urban centers, it is one of the most diverse cities in the country in terms of clan composition. If its elites focus less on domination and more on finding common ground, it could be a catalyst for a period of cooperation and renewal in the rest of Somalia.

Unfortunately, the window of opportunity to set Kismaayo on the right path is rapidly closing.

[original dervish]

All Darood lands have welcomed Southern Somalis fleeing genocide.
Even a far back as the s/l administration under Egal (aun), Southerners were put on trucks and expelled from Issaq areas.
Many of these displaced people were welcomed in Darood lands, even hawiye were allowed to settle and prosper.

We don`t need lessons on how to live peacefully by former moryaan, who occupy our homes and businesses and want to involve themselves in Kismayo
Kismayo/Jubbalands fate will be decided by the people who live there and own it.

[original dervish]

I`ve heard the new president tried to send Indhacadde to Kismayo as a Government representative, but Maddobe told him to get lost.
Today a dirty Djiboutian general from AMISOM tried to land at the airport but was refused permission.

There is an unholy alliance of Irrirs, iidoor, hawiye and Djiboutians, determined to sabotage Jubbaland.
Tonight the president is meeting with all the AMISOM generals, crying about his humiliation.

So far the people of Kismayo have held firm and stood their ground, but we haven`t seen the last of Irrir just yet.

[siren]

They thought that Darood will kill each other over Kista lol, it's big enough for all of us

[Advo]

Inshallah no blood will be spilled and everything will be resolved through negotiation

[Siciid85]

Let this be a lesson for Abgaalking and other half-witted Hawiyes should learn from. Next time when a Dooro comes to power do not carry him in your back and
welcome them into your cities willingly. They don't want you to rule the country so why should they be allowed to rule former Italian Somalia when the opportunity
comes for them. Abgaalking it is time to start singing kill the Boer kill the Dooro.

[Advo]

Stfu u dumb ass nygga....

We can see right through ur isku dirdiris turning this into hawiye vs darood so the south can remain in chaos and ur precious issaqland can shine. You are not smarter than anyone here marka isla yaab sambacyahow!

[Siciid85]

That was expected after all you are a Kastuumo Cayr,you Boon nincompoop. I have every right to comment on affairs concerning beesha Hawiye and their right
to rule former Italian Somalia after all they also take part in Somaliland discussions. If this continues do not be surprised when the Hawiye masses wake up and
see how the president who hails from their clan is being disrespected by the same people they welcomed out of wadaniimo. Eye for eye. Do not be afraid like
a little flower.It is you guys who started qabyalaada and disrespecting your legitimate president as of now in favor of your Kikuyu Kenyan pimps.

[GIJaamac]

Let this be a lesson for Abgaalking and other half-witted Hawiyes should learn from. Next time when a Dooro comes to power do not carry him in your back and
welcome them into your cities willingly. They don't want you to rule the country so why should they be allowed to rule former Italian Somalia when the opportunity
comes for them. Abgaalking it is time to start singing kill the Boer kill the Dooro.

But abgaaalking is eaglehawk. I thought u knew it by this time ?

[Siciid85]

It is not only Abgaalking though is it, who invited Abdulahi Yuusuf to Mogadishu? All i am saying is if the current president's authority which is more legitimate than
Abdulahi Yuusuf's transitional government is disrespected by certain communities in former Italian Somalia because of tribalism. Then it is time to rethink about the
past mistakes and tread carefully not to repeat it.

[original dervish]

While we pray for peace, others pray for war.
Jubbaland will be the redemption of our people.
20+ years of turmoil and suffering have come to an end insha`llah.

A bitter Irrir wind is blowing in from the north, bringing bitterness and hate.
The prospect of another Puntland in the South fills their hearts with dread.
Jubbaland has the potential to surpass the great achievements of Puntland.

We need to be steadfast and persevere under enormous provocation and intrigue.
By standing firm and unified our birthright and prosperity will be secured for succeeding generations.

[KingBlack]

While we pray for peace, others pray for war.
Jubbaland will be the redemption of our people.
20+ years of turmoil and suffering have come to an end insha`llah.

A bitter Irrir wind is blowing in from the north, bringing bitterness and hate.The prospect of another Puntland in the South fills their hearts with dread.
Jubbaland has the potential to surpass the great achievements of Puntland.

We need to be steadfast and persevere under enormous provocation and intrigue.
By standing firm and unified our birthright and prosperity will be secured for succeeding generations.

xamar is ruled by Abgaal , Marhen , Eley speaker wit Eley defense minister.

[original dervish]

^^