The Mother Of All Worst-case Assumptions About Iran

[Thuganomics]

The debate on Iran and its nuclear program does little credit to the U.S. foreign policy community, because much of it rests on dubious assumptions that do not stand up to even casual scrutiny. Lots of ink, pixels, and air-time has been devoted to discussing whether Iran truly wants a bomb, how close it might be to getting one, how well sanctions are working, whether the mullahs in charge are "rational," and whether a new diplomatic initiative is advisable. Similarly, journalists, politicians and policy wonks spend endless hours asking if and when Israel might attack and whether the United States should help. But we hardly ever ask ourselves if this issue is being blown wildly out of proportion.

t bottom, the whole debate on Iran rests on the assumption that Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon would be an event of shattering geopolitical significance: On a par with Hitler's rise to power in Germany in 1933, the fall of France in 1940, the Sino-Soviet split, or the breakup of the former Soviet Union. In this spirit, Henry Kissinger recently argued that a latent Iranian capability (that is, the capacity to obtain a bomb fairly quickly) would have fearsome consequences all by itself. Even if Iran stopped short of some red line, Kissinger claims this would: 1) cause "uncontrollable military nuclear proliferation throughout [the] region," 2) "lead many of Iran's neighbors to reorient their political alignment toward Tehran" 3) "submerge the reformist tendencies in the Arab Spring," and 4) deliver a "potentially fatal blow" to hopes for reducing global nuclear arsenals. Wow. And that's just if Iran has nuclear potential and not even an actual weapon! It follows that the United States must either persuade them to give up most of their enrichment capacity or go to war to destroy it.

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http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... about_iran

[The_Patriot]

dude the whole Iran Vs US thing is nothing more than a psychodrama.

[AgentOfChaos]

Wow, that's probably the best article I have read on that topic in a long time, thank you for sharing.

[original dervish]

The Iranians are surrounded by nuclear armed countries...Pakistan, India, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia (US arsenal ) China.
The US and Israel have even threatened to launch a first strike against Iran.

Five or six of the regional countries have been invaded and occupied by US/NATO.
The only targeted country not invaded... nuclear armed N Korea.

The Iranians would be mad if they didn`t want nuclear weapons.