EEGA9 wrote:Your assumption on Axmara is based on them gaining power again the days where they had complete power in Ethiopia are long gone, if the TPLF falls the most likely scenario is tribal enclaves filling the vacuum in the different regions the country comprises so no ethnicity or movement will have monopoly on power. The Oromo population is not naive they won't allow axmara to dictate them or use them to assume control over the country, their escaping the same political curse as the Ogaden.The Oromo and Ogaden movements are naturally allied in the face of highlander aggression.
The furthest the Axmara can go is to liberate the Axmara region, the TPLF itself will likely withdraw to the Tigray region and decide upon their political future in Ethiopia.Their not suicidal.As a last ditched move at survival if their not overthrown by their own Tigray opposition will be to exercise the self-determination clause in the constitution to save Tigray from retribution, Tigray will not accept axmara domination.
Ilay and the Kilil have no free-will/political independence to make such moves, their nothing but a satellite entity for the TPLF. Ilay and DDS are irrelevant. Only the TPLF can sanction a referendum as the government and that will occur when the tables start turning and we can negotiate from a position of power.
The Somali people in the Ogaden are no different from any people fighting for liberation, we have our rotten apples who side with the aggressor out of selfish interests that doesn't change the long-term goal....its the natural trajectory of liberation.
The Oromo for the past 20 years have seen the light. They have realized the value of territorial expansion. They have tasted the fruits of freedom. They live in Dira Dawa all the way to Addis Ababa. They are by far the biggest threat to Somalis in Ogadenia. However, there is a religious division within the Oromo. That's one of the obstacles to their rise to power. The Christian Amxara, Guraga and the small ethnic group that Mengistu belonged to, all have one thing in common. Their hatred for Islam and Somalis. They know their #1 enemy is Ogadenia, because if Ogadenia gets independence or is annexed by Somalia, then the Amxara, Guraga and other small minorities will all be dominated, enslaved and abused by the bigger ethnic group, Oromos. Keeping Ethiopia together is to the benefit of the Amxara and they will do whatever it takes to uphold to that goal. You mentioned something about Oromo not letting Amxara dictate them. Well, you're wrong. the Non-Muslim Oromo are 100% with the Amxara over the Muslim Oromos. Religion plays a key role in the lives of all the Ethnic groups in Ethiopia. The reason Somalis are sidelined is because 99% of them adhere to Islam, thus are seen automatically as a threat.
Somalis in Ogadenia, specifically the ONLF need to straight out their priorities. They need to form alliances based on mutual respect and understanding. The Political Wing of the ONLF should hold reconciliation conferences and process to unite the Somalis. During this Reconciliation process, the ONLF should not continue to fight against the LIYU police because it will widen the gap to reconciliation.
What I don't understand is, why is UN turning a blind eye on the issue of Ogadenia. Clearly, it's similar to the conflict between North Sudan and South Sudan. Somalis in Ogadenia have no ethnic commonality, cultural commonality and religious commonality for the most part with the rest of the other ethnic groups in Ethiopia. Territorially, the Somalis live in their own region, making them the majority in that region. So, why shouldn't it have the attention of the International Community, like South Sudan, Darfur, Taiwan?
Britain gave Ogadenia to Ethiopia. We should put our focus and pressure on Britain instead of Ethiopia.
