7 reasons Somalia will not rise

[union]

1. Tribal identity is deeply engrained in the Somali psyche and is much more important than national identity.
2. Individual tribes have established semi-sovereign "federal states" that subvert the national government (e.g, Puntland).
3. The national government is weak, corrupt, and totally dependent on outside aid for it's survival.
4. There has been no meaningful national dialogue/reconciliation about the civil war and its causes.
5. Somali factions are not open to compromise even when they are weak and close to defeat. They simply will call foreigners to their aid.
6. Neighboring states prefer to see a weak and divided Somalia that they can easily control.
7. Anti-modernist retrogressive elements have taken root throughout Somalia (e.g, Wahabism).

Don't be hopeful. Somalia will not rise again.

[Khalid Ali]

1. Tribal identity is deeply engrained in the Somali psyche and is much more important than national identity.
2. Individual tribes have established semi-sovereign "federal states" that subvert the national government (e.g, Puntland).
3. The national government is weak, corrupt, and totally dependent on outside aid for it's survival.
4. There has been no meaningful national dialogue/reconciliation about the civil war and its causes.
5. Somali factions are not open to compromise even when they are weak and close to defeat. They simply will call foreigners to their aid.
6. Neighboring states prefer to see a weak and divided Somalia that they can easily control.
7. Anti-modernist retrogressive elements have taken root throughout Somalia (e.g, Wahabism).

Don't be hopeful. Somalia will not rise again.

This is an excellent point since the civil war there hasn't been any dialogue for peace stability brotherhood that's essential when you are sharing a country consisting of various tribes that are at war with each other. instead what do Somalis do they go to addis ababa nairobi Djibouti cairo and hold a conference for the factional warlords. While they should have addressed the core problems that has caused this long conflict inside Somalia between the people and the tribal elders business people influential people civil society. I have been saying this for years but Somalis don't listen they just try to ignore the fundamental problems and sing Somalia toosoy and than they say ask whats wrong with Somalia.


Also the sense of national identity is also very minimum there is 4.5 if there was no 4.5 there wouldn't be a government today in Mogadisho, Somalis have created a governing entity consisting of 4 major and a half tribe. Other than that Jugjug meeshada iga joog

[Basra-]

Lazy, slow moving, therefore low energy, therefore low productivity. African mentality. Dirty people---they will get sick before they age gracefully. Somali restaurant stinks--even though the food is good. Not to mention--Malis are jealous by nature. They like to copy each other--therefore-- if a farah from ogadania--open a jaat shop--another ogadeni will do the same, and then another one who is a friend but is a marehaani--and the fifth one is probably a happy go lucky abgaal who will pretend he is better than the rest so he opens a chewing gum that is jaat friendly and still sell jaat. Somalis are cursed. I think the civil war happened for a reason. There needs to be a total new general mentality in Somalia--roughly 150 years of unrest. Don't worry --we are gone by then-alhamdhulilaah.

[AbdiWahab252]

Agree with most of your point which is why I am investing in my tribal homeland. First order of business for the last 30 years is keeping the Fundie Ikhwans out which has been successful. Next one is combating illiteracy which is working. Folks are coming around the notion that education is the way and so are the Suufi clerics. As long as we keep Ikhwan dogs and their puppies out, progress will be made.

To your address your other points

1. Tribal identity is deeply engrained in the Somali psyche and is much more important than national identity.

AW's response - That may be true but only a certain faction has successfully been enlightened to think beyond qabiil: the Ikhwani dogs and their puppies. The 5th column are in agreement and lurk in tribal bantustans waiting for the order. The Ikhwani rabies varies in degree: intense in Konfuristan, dormant in Waqooyistan (Bari ila Awdal).

2. Individual tribes have established semi-sovereign "federal states" that subvert the national government (e.g, Puntland).

AW's response - True. No contention here. The central government is essentially one for Benadir and its environs.

3. The national government is weak, corrupt, and totally dependent on outside aid for it's survival.

AW's response - This is a case of thinking small and adopting a dependency mentality. This government if it had the balls and guts could raise revenues domestically but the begging bowl mentality is hard to get rid off. Who asks for aid to pay for its armed forces

4. There has been no meaningful national dialogue/reconciliation about the civil war and its causes.

AW's response - Not at the national level. At the local district/regional level, this has been done. All groups in the countryside have moved in with antagonists @ the national or diaspora level have been fomenting conflict. The thing that is required most is combating the culture of impunity for war criminals. End that and every
faction leader will think twice about human rights abuses.

5. Somali factions are not open to compromise even when they are weak and close to defeat. They simply will call foreigners to their aid.

AW's response - Full agreement. The greatest disaster was the intervention of 1992. If those foreigners had not arrived, the Somalis would have been forced to compromise and strike a deal.

6. Neighboring states prefer to see a weak and divided Somalia that they can easily control.

AW's response - Full agreement. Asking Ethiopia, Kenya and IGAD to intervene in Somalia is equivalent of India intervening in Pakistan to solve its Taliban problem. Ain't going to work out well for Pakistan in the long run.

7. Anti-modernist retrogressive elements have taken root throughout Somalia (e.g, Wahabism).

AW's response - Full agreement. The 5 Column Dogs and their puppies have to be combated through the development of social assistance programs that compete for the poor, destitute hearts and minds. A lot of people who were in the aid programs in Somalia in the mid 90s saw the rise of the Arabist aid programs and knew that in about 10-15 years that they would have establish a loyal constituency to push their agenda. If there was stepped up aid assistance and not abandonment of Somalia by the UN/EU/USA in the 1990s, Al Haremein and Wahabia wouldn't have filled the vacuum.

[Twist]

Real points.

[Mondey]

Somalia can rise again only under a leader like

[AhlulbaytSoldier]

Somalia can rise again only under a leader like

Dejavu nigga
Same problems will happen over and over again

We must fight any kind of dictatorship. Fair elections and the support of the somalis for their government is the way forward.

[union]

Somalia can rise again only under a leader like

He was overall a good leader but he made some deadly mistakes that have contributed to many of Somalia's current problems.

[union]

Agree with most of your point which is why I am investing in my tribal homeland. First order of business for the last 30 years is keeping the Fundie Ikhwans out which has been successful. Next one is combating illiteracy which is working. Folks are coming around the notion that education is the way and so are the Suufi clerics. As long as we keep Ikhwan dogs and their puppies out, progress will be made.

To your address your other points

1. Tribal identity is deeply engrained in the Somali psyche and is much more important than national identity.

AW's response - That may be true but only a certain faction has successfully been enlightened to think beyond qabiil: the Ikhwani dogs and their puppies. The 5th column are in agreement and lurk in tribal bantustans waiting for the order. The Ikhwani rabies varies in degree: intense in Konfuristan, dormant in Waqooyistan (Bari ila Awdal).

2. Individual tribes have established semi-sovereign "federal states" that subvert the national government (e.g, Puntland).

AW's response - True. No contention here. The central government is essentially one for Benadir and its environs.

3. The national government is weak, corrupt, and totally dependent on outside aid for it's survival.

AW's response - This is a case of thinking small and adopting a dependency mentality. This government if it had the balls and guts could raise revenues domestically but the begging bowl mentality is hard to get rid off. Who asks for aid to pay for its armed forces

4. There has been no meaningful national dialogue/reconciliation about the civil war and its causes.

AW's response - Not at the national level. At the local district/regional level, this has been done. All groups in the countryside have moved in with antagonists @ the national or diaspora level have been fomenting conflict. The thing that is required most is combating the culture of impunity for war criminals. End that and every
faction leader will think twice about human rights abuses.

5. Somali factions are not open to compromise even when they are weak and close to defeat. They simply will call foreigners to their aid.

AW's response - Full agreement. The greatest disaster was the intervention of 1992. If those foreigners had not arrived, the Somalis would have been forced to compromise and strike a deal.

6. Neighboring states prefer to see a weak and divided Somalia that they can easily control.

AW's response - Full agreement. Asking Ethiopia, Kenya and IGAD to intervene in Somalia is equivalent of India intervening in Pakistan to solve its Taliban problem. Ain't going to work out well for Pakistan in the long run.

7. Anti-modernist retrogressive elements have taken root throughout Somalia (e.g, Wahabism).

AW's response - Full agreement. The 5 Column Dogs and their puppies have to be combated through the development of social assistance programs that compete for the poor, destitute hearts and minds. A lot of people who were in the aid programs in Somalia in the mid 90s saw the rise of the Arabist aid programs and knew that in about 10-15 years that they would have establish a loyal constituency to push their agenda. If there was stepped up aid assistance and not abandonment of Somalia by the UN/EU/USA in the 1990s, Al Haremein and Wahabia wouldn't have filled the vacuum.

All very true.

Do you think this current government will make any meaningful progress toward addressing these problems? Or are they simply going to prostitute Somalia for foreign aid money like previous governments?

[talxenegus]

Ikhwan dogs.....you sound like m grandpa. Ihkwan rule the majority of the Islamic world now and are the most up to date people interms of politics.

[TATI]

I feel sorry for Somalia always gotta keep it in my prayers. I may be retarded but I think it will rise again.

[Anarchist]

Somalia has nowhere else to go but up from this point on. Everything has to start somewhere and though the current government is far from being ideal, it's a start. It's also making headway everyday. But, more importantly -- there is a resemblance of a nation on the rise and an awakening across the board. Loyalty to clans and clan regions will probably never disappear all together, but as long as the people have some sort of normalcy and a country that is no longer referred to as "the world's most failed country!" Then there is plenty of hope to go around. Don't expect instant results, but gradually, we shall get there, inshallah.